Originally Posted by extralife
our pass defense in general is obviously good, but we're very bad vs. the tight end (I originally said the worst. Football outsiders have us 23rd in DVOA against TE, and we've given up the third most yards. Pretty bad). I don't think any of that Hernandez-in-the-backfield junk could do anything to us this year, but I also don't think we can realistically expect to shutdown their TEs AND their backs. If Harris can hold up on Welker (this would be a great matchup to watch) and Lloyd doesn't beat Champ deep, we could be all right even if one of those two areas have a nice day, but another disaster like 250 rushing yards against? Or Hernandez for a buck fifty and two TDs? we'd lose that game.
I'm also worried about turnover differential. those stats usually come to bear in the playoffs, and the Pats are number one in the NFL.
basically no one can convince me that this isn't a tough game. I'm going to worry about it from today until the game is over. and if we don't make it there to begin with I'm going to break every window in my house.
If we're just looking at matchups it shouldn't be a tough game. The offenses are roughly equal (the Pats have inflated stats due to constantly running it up on crappy teams), while the Broncos defense is vastly superior. And you're actually wrong about the turnover thing. Many teams with big TO differentials in the regular season see that dry up in the playoffs. Though it definitely is the X factor, and the only way I see us losing to the Pats (or really anyone).