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Old 12-21-2012, 12:54 PM   #169
Drek
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Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic View Post
When comparing Tebows possible same future as these players, maybe stick to examples of QBs. Sure there's going to be players overlooked who turn out great. Problem is Tebow WASN'T overlooked. He was in fact babied. Dumbing down an offense so badly just to get him on the field? You just compared Moons skills to Tebows? You're out of your mind. There's 2 examples. Young and flutie. And even young Had a different running skill. BYU and florida offenses were not the same. Quit comparing QBs who can throw. The differences with all those examples you gave is they had the skill set to become great. Tebow doesn't.
Ok, prove it.

Tim Tebow in college never had a season below a 64.4% completion rate and that was the year with his fewest pass attempts (298). His final season he completed 67.8% of his passes, on 314 attempts. That's more passes than a lot of rookie QBs make in a 16 game rookie season, so it's not that his college offense reduced his attempts via having him tuck and run repeatedly.

So what suddenly changed to where he can't complete passes in the NFL? Every QB upon entering the NFL hits a rough transition, primarily in their ability to complete passes. This is why most QB coaches will tell you it takes a good 20 games in the NFL for a young QB to adapt.

Tebow hasn't gotten 10 games where he's been allowed to actually throw the football with regularity and adapt to the NFL game. You say they dumbed down the offense last season because Tebow couldn't handle it but his completion percentage still went up as the season went on and his best games were the ones where he was allowed to throw with regularity. So I'd say last year's offense was the coaching staff dumbing down the offense due to their own insecurity about letting Tebow throw and therefore turning it into a self fulfilling prophecy.

What former first round QB has never been given a full off-season of preparation as the #1 starter in his entire career? I can't think of many, other than Tebow.

What former first round QB was moved off his drafting team before he even logged 16 starts? Again, not many other than Tebow.

So how has he been babied? All I see is a bunch of stubborn coaches refusing to give Tebow a chance because he's not their guy or doesn't fit their exact definition of what they want at QB.

If Tebow had gone to a team that didn't replace the GM and HC that brought him in before his first year was even over he might have gotten a real chance to develop and learn on the job, like most first round QBs. Instead he quickly became the previous regime's guy and was shuttled out of town at the first real opportunity. Since then he's been marked as damaged goods.

Meanwhile Andrew "The Savior" Luck is posting a whopping 54% completion rate and a QB rating on par with Tebow's career QBR, but he "wins games" so he's in ROY contention. Tebow did the same thing after being spotted a 1-5 start but he's been summarily dismissed. See the double standard? Its gratuitous over-weighting of the eye test and not paying attention to the outcomes.

Baseball had this same problem not too long ago. Kevin Youkilis didn't get a real shot in the majors until his mid-20's despite setting the all time minor league hit streak record because he didn't look like a conventional baseball player. He became a star, along with tons of other people scouts hated but who had valuable baseball skills. Unlike baseball there is no easy way to quantify all the skills that it takes to play football, since there are no true one on one match ups to isolate data points.

Now to clarify, I think there is a very good chance that even given a real shot to start at QB Tim Tebow would never amount to a good NFL QB. That is a very real outcome. But Tim Tebow is already a damn good football player, at least when he's got the ball and a lane to run in. So I just don't get why teams are so unwilling to work on the former in exchange for reaping the current profits of the later. Its not like you ever really need to let him start if you don't think he's developed any as a passer in two or three years, but the upside if he does is pretty tremendous. Meanwhile he's an elite power back like very few others.
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