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Old 12-13-2012, 08:48 AM   #32
Mat'hir Uth Gan
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Jacksonville, FL
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Originally Posted by pricejj View Post

Vickerson and Bannan will be resigned. I would expect a high draft pick (2nd rounder) to replace Ty Warren.

I think Moreno will be back. He has a $3.4M cap number, but only $1.7M salary (has the bonus already been paid?). He is showing his worth. If he can get us to the AFCCG...he's every bit worth his salary.

I would expect the Broncos to draft an outside WR (not a slot). Manning is highly comfortable with Decker in the slot (he's like Collie). You are right, Stokley will back.

There won't be enough room to draft a WR and sign one too.

Minter is NOT better than DJ Williams. Replacing DJ with Minter would make the Defense worse. Not a good idea.

If Kuper's joint is messed up, he's toast. We do not know the extent of the injury, and how it affects his hasn't looked good. Beadles gets manhandled often. Jones is an elite guard...and may be the only elite player remaining on the board when the Broncos pick.

I expect them to take a 4th to 6th round RB to replace Lance Ball. Ronnie Hillman is much better than you think. McGahee and Moreno are more than adequate and cheap.

It's not as deep a DT class as you would think. Kawann Short will be 24. Sylvester Williams will be 25. Jerel Worthy (#51 overall 2012) is actually over a full year younger than Kawann Short. Star Lotulelei is average for a 23 year old, Hankins is an underperformer, and so is Jarvis Jenkins. Sheldon Richardson is the only DT who I would consider with a 1st round grade in this draft class, and he is 22 (same class as Fletcher Cox). Everybody else (Hankins, Lotulelei, Jenkins, Short, Williams) truly deserves a 2nd round grade based on age and/or production. Last years class was actually more productive and younger (though they lacked humongous size).

I think they will stay away from slot in the draft, because Decker can fill that role. I believe they take a shot at a #2WR (Pierre Garcon type) in the 3rd or the 4th round).

My thoughts on your thoughts of my thoughts:

1) I would love another early DT pick. Love it. I don't see it happening. Not with this coaching staff and our scheme. Vickerson, Bannan, and Unrein are 33-50% snap players. Wolfe moves inside and Unrein partners with him on passing downs. Bannan plays on obvious running downs. And Vickerson has been getting squeezed out more and more as our base down penetrating DT as we've been experimenting with Ayers and Dumervil outside, with Wolfe sliding inside. Vickerson only played 16/53 snaps last game. He's just not that important to our scheme even though he's played fine while in the game. Alot of that has to do with the weapons surrounding him though, not his talent level. We also know that long-term, as he gains size, Del Rio wants Wolfe to play DT in four man fronts.

So, lets assume Wolfe puts on the 10-15 pounds this offseason to get him around 315-320. He's now the starting LDT. Siliga, Bannan, or whatever NT we have is at RDT. Unrein is going to be the pass rushing DT sub for that NT. Wolfe is not coming out, and he's backed up by Malik Jackson, whom is the same type of player and build. Obviously, Wolfe and Jackson can kick out to 5 tech when we do our 3-3-5 looks with Miller standing up off the edge.

There is no need nor room for a DT on our roster. There is going to be a huge need for a Defensive End though for 4 man fronts. We could bring back Jason Hunter and he'd be fine at Left Defensive End, but even if so, Ayers is going to walk, and we'll need a backup for Dumervil at Right Defensive End. I would not be surprised to see two relatively high DEs drafted, a Rush End to back up Dumervil and a well rounded base end that is more effective against the run. From the coaches' comments, that is our long term goal for our defense.

So, more than DT, I'm looking extremely hard at the DEs projected to go in the top 4 rounds, thinking we need two. Okafor or Ansah in late 1, Ben Gardner or Datone Jones in the late 2nd, John Simon, Brandon Jenkins, or Tank Carradine in the late 3rd, some mixture of that would make sense.

2. My preference would be to replace McGahee with Moreno next season. You really can't have both as they are very similar players and neither is used on special teams. Moreno was somewhat cheap this year and his signing bonus, which is spread out across the length of his contract, would have been a big hit if he was released this season. We barely kept him, complete with Elway's quote of "I think he probably makes us a better team". Ringing endorsement, that. It's the same deal as it was with Tebow though. They don't like Moreno. They'll use him and applaud him, but as soon as they can ditch him, they will. They don't believe in him regardless of what he does. It's another example of their thought process that we're winning despite Moreno because defenses are gearing up to stop the pass. Also, Eddie Lacy is supposably coming out. He's the exact type of RB John Fox loves, and he's fast enough to play special teams. He's one of the few players I think are in our sights in late round 1. He has to get past Green Bay though.

3. I agree that the Broncos could take an outside WR and view Decker as the future in the slot.

4. DJ Williams looks to be done here. He's playing behind Trevathan since he's been back, and Trevathan has outplayed him to boot. The staff seems to have no desire to try and plug him in at MIKE, which I think would be the best idea. I also think you're way off on Kevin Minter. He's an incredible prospect that hasn't been hyped yet by the media. If he declares, he'll be in the Mid-1st Round discussion as a MIKE LB. He's not that far behind Te'o, and he's well ahead of Ogletree. I think we'd be lucky to land him in the late 1st, and he'd be a 3 down LB for a decade.

5. Jones is a good OG/OC. He's going to grade out behind Warmack and Cooper. His comparison is Max Unger, and he'd be a fine late 1st Round pick if we needed that. I haven't seen anything that suggests Kuper is done. Beadles is well thought of. I don't see any inclination that we would scrap Walton, though that is where I think Jones would be most likely to fit in rather than at OG. So, unless we give up on Walton, I don't see this as a probability.

6. I think the DT draft is potentially extremely deep. Lotulelei and Nix are Top 15 picks. Richardson, Jenkins, and Hankins should all go in the Top 25. Short, the Williams Trio, and Floyd could all go Late 1 to Mid 2. Spence, Logan, and Hill should all go from Late 2 - Mid 3. And if McCullers and Geathers come out, they could go in that range as well. Those two are expected to stay though. You can't trivialize the importance of size to the DT position. Parcells' Planet Theory is a key concept. Especially, if they're talking about eliminating cut blocks. Which would then put the entire onus on size and power in trench play. The fact that so many athletic big men could be available in one draft is a phenomenon, which would make this one of the best DT drafts in history on that factor alone.

Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 12-13-2012 at 08:57 AM..
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