Luck is playing very well, but he has had a couple of outlier games that make his stats look really poor. The team has taken on a new look and feel, and they are not the pushovers they were with a bunch of over the hill vets last year.
The young guys are playing very solidly and this is a real young team. Peyton should be able to tear them apart on paper, but the defense still has a pass rush and DEN does not have a proven ground game yet without McGahee.
I see the Colts every week, and they are the middle of the pack as a team. However, they play a lot better than the sum of their parts and are being coached really well. They are VERY conservative on offense, but then they take their chances downfield with a couple burners in Avery and Hilton and Luck has made those throws. Defensively they are not solid every play, but still make plays when they need to. Very opportunistic, just not necessarily with TO's.
Overall, its a game DEN should win going away. However, they will not lay down and make it easy. In fact, if they do not TO the ball at a high rate it should be a very good game IMHO.