Originally Posted by CEH
Based on your average of 3.5 ypc running it 3 straight times should net you a first down everytime so 3.86 should do the same.
What average ypc do you need to run it 3 straight times to get a first down?
and how many teams run it 3 straight times in the NFL and of those that do how many pick up a 1st down? I bet it's a very low 1st down rate no matter what your yards per carry for the season is
Running the ball for 3.86 yards a clip is not optimal but its good enough of a run game to do what you are trying to do on offense. Pound the ball to set up the play action and later on in the game break off a couple bigger runs
See Car videos of Manning telling them why they need to run the ball
Sticking with the run is really the better route then to look at ypc
28 carries for 110 (< 4 yards per carry) will win you alot of Super Bowls and in the Colts lost to the Saints in the SB they averaged 5+ ypc
...but the Colts couldn't run the ball when they had too.
Do you think the Broncos could pick up a first down rushing the ball if it's 3rd and 3? 3rd and 2? 3rd and 1?
I don't, and there is ample evidence to prove that I'm right.
The key is keeping drives alive. Anybody can average 3.8 ypc if you only run the ball to keep the Defense honest. But can you run the ball when the Defense is expecting run? The current answer is "NO".