I think the late season drop-off is a more recent phenomena and there are some specific reasons why it happened each year.
First, let's look at the post-Elway era from 2000-2005:
2000 11-5. Final 6: 5-1 (finished very strong)
2001 7-9. Final 6: 3-3 (finished slightly better than start)
2002 9-7. Final 6: 2-4 (below average for season)
2003 10-6 Final 6: 4-2 (finished slightly better than start)
2004 10-6 Final 6: 3-3 (below average for season)
2005: 13-3 Final 6: 5-1 (finished slightly better than start)
Overall: 60-36 (.625) Final 6: 22-14 (.611)
Not really much of a difference.
Since then:
2006: 9-7 Final 6: 2-4 Al Wilson injured December 3; Rookie Cutler replaces Plummer
2007: 7-9 Final 6: 2-4 Meh.
2008: 8-8 Final 6: 2-4 by season’s end, 7 running backs on injured reserve
2009: 8-8 Final 6: 2-4 soft defensive middle wore down
2010: 4-12 Final 6: 1-5 Spygate; McD fired, horrid defense all year
2011: 8-8 Final 6: 3-3 Tebow rollercoaster
It's been a "trend," but there have been plenty of reasons for it.
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