Originally Posted by Taco John
Here me now and believe me later. I'm not going to sit here and try to convince you of what anyone can clearly see is happening. The Republican party is on the ropes, and the libertarians have the strongest candidate in their history. You scoff at a million votes as though Obama won by 10 million.
The libertarian party has 4 years to mobilize with the strongest candidate they've ever had against the weakest Republican party in over 100 years. Just remember where you heard it first when it all goes down.
Yeah, I don't buy it, much as I would prefer to see a debate on issues between a Democrat and a Libertarian as opposed to a Republican.
Although Lincoln was elected as a Republican while the party was still relatively unknown, that was over 150 years ago, and the political landscape has changed so much that a candidate not belonging to the two "establishment" parties has almost no chance of being elected, let alone recognized nationally. The Citizens United decision will only serve to reinforce this, as the D's and R's have acquired so much political capital (both in the way of economic support and party infrastructure) over the past 100 years, that neither of them are going away anytime soon, least of all to a fringe movement that many people only use as a way to protest the establishment. For as much of an advantage the Democrats have had over the Republicans with regard to party infrastructure over the past 8 years, the Republicans have 10 times that advantage over the Libertarians.
From a political science perspective, it's a pipe dream at best. There is literally no statistical or historical basis on which to make the claim that a Libertarian will get any more than a fraction of the vote. Look at Perot. He was a nationally recognized name before the election, took part in the debates...may have gotten almost 20% of the vote, but didn't win a single state.
If you should have learned anything from the past 15 years, it's that popular vote means nothing...well, next to nothing...in presidential politics.