Originally Posted by enjolras
He got every senate race correct except for three (the coin flips in Colorado and Alaska, along with the surprise in Arizona). The one in Arizona was most definitely an issue with the polling data.
He struggled a bit with the house races, but that makes sense. Polling data for individual district races tends to be sparse. It's hard to have a good statistical model without data.
Essentially his models have been shown to work well when there is a lot of data available. For a presidential election that is most definitely true.
So you're saying he did okay, except for the races he didn't? And I think you mean Nevada instead of AZ (he predicted Angle to win by 3 and Reid won by 5.5). There were only 5 close races in the senate that year and he got 3 wrong, including 1 massively wrong (8.5% off). He gave the Republicans as much chance of picking up 60+ seats as he has given Romney to win (R's picked up 63).
So yeah, he's not all that great.