Originally Posted by 24champ
That's only if Obama can get the same record turnout he did in 2008, and that's not likely with his campaign running around to Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire etc. States that he won by a decent margin in 2008.
Every single poll has Obama below 50 percent. That is not good news for an incumbent and also not good news for Obama losing the independent vote by double digits. CNN had their final polling data out and shows Romney up 22 percent with independents. Now, you can't possibly tell me Obama will win if those numbers are true.
The only thing that has me worried is your boy Jay Cutler backing Romney.
BTW, if Mitt wins tomorrow, I'm going to claim it was due to the Cutler endorsement reversing the effect of the storm.
And yes, he is that important. Jay= stud.
Seriously, I think your boy has a tough hill to climb, but as always it will depend on the turnout models. If they keep it to D+2 or below, they can win it.
Here's what I'm thinking (at D+3 turnout, which I think is the most reasonable, I'm not convinced that the October Gallup and Rasmussen model is realistic, i.e. EVEN or R+):
NH- Obama by 2
VA- Romney by 2
NC- Romney by 6
FL- Romney by 3
OH- Obama by 2
WI- Obama by 2
IA- Obama by 1
CO- Romney by 2
NV- Obama by 3
PA- Obama by 3
MN- Obama by 5
MI- Obama by 6