I think generally the president gets is approval in votes. That's a pretty steady trend. The only time the Skins game didn't predict the outcome correctly was in 2004, and Obama's numbers are fairly similar to Bush's at that time and he won both.
The one thing that give me hope Obama will lose is this election more people identify themselves as Republican than Democrat and Republican engagement is higher than Democrat for the first time as well. I was thinking with independents leaning Romney so heavily we had a shot, but now that's evening out. It will still be close. With so few people able to, or willing to vote on the blue cost, that will bring the total votes down and so I think Romney will win the popular and lose the electoral vote. Could be wrong, but it seems trending that way for sure.