[SoCalBronco]

Polling numbers over the weekend are very interesting. I don't have a dog in this fight because I voted for Huntsman, so I'd like to think I'm a reasonably objective observer (even though I am a moderate Republican).

There appears to be significant movement towards Obama in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. He is getting some indies breaking his way. Multiple polls showing Romney's lead among Indies dwindling. Most of the polling today is either tied (CNN, Battleground, Rasmussen) or Obama +3 (PPP, Pew). PPP is the Democratic version of Rasmussen, although I might add that Tom Jensen is pretty well respected. What I find more interesting is PEW. They changed their turnout model from R+4 in early October to D+5 in their last sampling. It is unclear if this is done because they think the contours of the expected electorate will change or what. I noticed Rasmussen also changed his sampling model from an R+1 to a D+3 (he is now showing it as tied). It will be very interesting to see Gallup's final poll tomorrow. I suspect it will show a tighter race than Romney 51-46 (where they last were before the Hurricane), but what I am most interested to see is 1) whethre they still believe their likely voter screen is accurate and 2) how they break down independents.

This will be very interesting. Over at electrionprojection (Disclaimer: It is a right of center site, but he does pretty good analytical work), his conclusion is simply that who wins depends on the modeling that is used.

IMO, we will have a good idea what will happen once we see the national exit polling data for the turnout models between R, D and I. But it does seem Obama has a lead right now, albeit slight.