Originally Posted by TheElusiveKyleOrton
So link to the original article.
Actually, the most accurate poll in the last election was the one put together with a combination of polling data and mathematics by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. He missed by something like one (1) electoral vote.
I don't respect people who post things which are short on facts. I also don't respect people who, in the face of notification that all campaigns use door-to-door get out the vote workers, responds with "DURRRRRR OBAMA DOOR TO DOOR GUY GOT ARRESTED" as if it has anything to do with anything.
Do try again though.
Silver got 49 of 50 states correct. Indiana was his only miss (it went to Obama instead of McCain). He also got all the Senate races correct:
Final projections of 2008 election
In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).. Obama won with 365 electoral college votes, Silver's predictions matching the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.
The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race. But the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day. And in Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection.