Originally Posted by ghwk
I keep telling you boneheads that ADP's number IS A CALCULATED NUMBER. They don't do everyones payroll. The only entity that gets all payroll info is the Govt. They are in the best position to produce a number.
Nobody is saying ADP is the authoritative figure, are they? ADP, however, is notorious for overshooting. Depending on your optimism, take a percentage of that and forecast from there--I'd go 60-65%. Don't forget you also have the outlier from last month's household survey that SHOULD correct itself this month, but knowing this admin, it just might take another month to do so.
If the UE rate comes in at 7.4 or something crazy, be skeptical and look forward to the 2016 GOP primary cuz Romney's dead in the water.