Originally Posted by DBruleU
FL? nah. CO? nah again.
This will come down to OH. If Mitt wins it, it's over. If Obama wins it, Mitt still has a chance but much harder.
And that Xbox poll is pathetic. I've seen how it's done. Anyone and everyone who signs into their Xbox can vote in that poll. I'm willing to bet a massive number of those who do vote aren't even eligible to vote. Either by age, or whatever.
I agree that Florida looks favorable for Romney, but the RCP average there is 1.8%. If you are willing to put Florida in the bag for Romney, then intellectual consistency would require you to acknowledge that states that show a similar lead for Obama are likely to go to him. Of the states that RCP has listed as "toss ups," Obama has RCP average lead of 2.0% or greater in six of them.
That's a total of 76 electoral votes, which based on the RCP map would put Obama over 270. Romney, meanwhile, only leads in two of the toss ups, Florida (+1.8%) and Colorado (a scant 0.2%....not sure why you are certain he's going to win there). Viriginia is a tie. Even if you give Romney FL, CO & VA, he's got a lot more ground to cover if he wants to win. The problem is the numbers have pretty much stabilized in the last couple of weeks.
BTW, all of these numbers are as of 10/25 in the AM. RCP updates daily, so there may be some variance on those numbers.