Originally Posted by DBruleU
FL? nah. CO? nah again.
This will come down to OH. If Mitt wins it, it's over. If Obama wins it, Mitt still has a chance but much harder.
And that Xbox poll is pathetic. I've seen how it's done. Anyone and everyone who signs into their Xbox can vote in that poll. I'm willing to bet a massive number of those who do vote aren't even eligible to vote. Either by age, or whatever.
I agree that FL is looking likely Romney (though not so
far from the margin of error). But, honestly, by nearly every account Romney has the narrower path to victory, especially considering Obama's lead in OH has steadied following the tightening during the debates.
Obama could actually lose both OH and FL and still win if he still got IA, CO, WI and VA. That isn't the
most likely scenario, as a OH loss wouldn't bode great for IA and CO, but it's well within the realm of possibility. 4 states, all but 1 that he has had a lead in (forecasts of CO seem to swing differently each day).
For Romney to win without OH (in which scenario we could safely assume he isn't closing even bigger gaps in PA or WI) he would need to sweep every other close swing state: VA (trails), CO (tied), IA (trails), NV (trails), NH (trails).
So, basically, either guy is in tough position without OH, but Obama may be in slightly better shape for a non-OH win.