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DBruleU · 10-15-2012, 09:42 AM

The Romney Campaign Shredded A New Poll That Shows Obama Destroying Mitt Romney Among Early Voters

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama...#ixzz29O2Spydu

"First and foremost, only 5% of early voting has completed," Beeson wrote in the memo. "In 2008, nearly 16,000,000 votes were cast before Election Day in the swing states. So far this cycle, just over 950,000 votes have been cast – or 6.01%. Therefore, 94% of all early votes have not even been cast yet. To claim a “big advantage” based off of a phase that’s just 6% complete is almost as absurd as predicting the outcome of a baseball game after the second out."

The Romney campaign has a point. Reuters only found 361 voters that had already cast a ballot out of the 6,704 people sampled in total. When broken down by swing state, too, that sample crumbles to a small handful of voters.

Reuters/Ipsos' defense is that the poll lines up with its credibility interval, which it uses to determine the accuracy of polls. Still, it's difficult to make a broad determination on the all-important battleground states with samples of as few as two people in some states. Ipsos didn't respond to an immediate request for furhter comment.

"Despite what this poll has claimed, it is clear that Governor Romney is poised to over-perform among those who will vote before Election Day," Beeson wrote.

10-15-2012, 09:42 AM	#43
DBruleU Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Boulder, the bastion of communism. Posts: 3,663	The Romney Campaign Shredded A New Poll That Shows Obama Destroying Mitt Romney Among Early Voters Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama...#ixzz29O2Spydu "First and foremost, only 5% of early voting has completed," Beeson wrote in the memo. "In 2008, nearly 16,000,000 votes were cast before Election Day in the swing states. So far this cycle, just over 950,000 votes have been cast – or 6.01%. Therefore, 94% of all early votes have not even been cast yet. To claim a “big advantage” based off of a phase that’s just 6% complete is almost as absurd as predicting the outcome of a baseball game after the second out." The Romney campaign has a point. Reuters only found 361 voters that had already cast a ballot out of the 6,704 people sampled in total. When broken down by swing state, too, that sample crumbles to a small handful of voters. Reuters/Ipsos' defense is that the poll lines up with its credibility interval, which it uses to determine the accuracy of polls. Still, it's difficult to make a broad determination on the all-important battleground states with samples of as few as two people in some states. Ipsos didn't respond to an immediate request for furhter comment. "Despite what this poll has claimed, it is clear that Governor Romney is poised to over-perform among those who will vote before Election Day," Beeson wrote.