Originally Posted by spdirty
Fair enough. I can't trust Rasmussen though, not after that amazing **** up they made in 2010 with the 2010 Colorado governors race.
I bet the best poll to believe for Colorado would be the Denver Post poll if/when they do one. I don't even know if they've done one yet but I believe them to be most accurate when dealing with Colorado.
When it comes to polling, the worst mistake that partisans make is to believe and push the poll that has their candidate winning. All it does is set yourself up for a letdown. Polling has to be tough. Trying to figure out what kind of sample size to use has to be really tough, because you have to predict the turnout.
I started this thread because Sullivan's reaction to the poll he chooses to believe gave me a chuckle. And I wanted to share it with you fine folks.
Polling isn't easy. Various places have different ways of gaining their information and certain states have laws against types of polling (robo-polling, etc.) and it is always important to look at the sample sizes with each poll.
I have a friend who works for Talking Points Memo and does this stuff on a day to day basis. A month ago he thought it was all wrapped up, but now he is seeing drastic shifts in places he didn't think they would happen. He still believes Obama will edge this one out, but ~ 290 to 300 EV instead of 325+ which was what he was expecting. Still a month to go. Anything could happen. From what I know about their respective ground campaigns, Obama has a lot more boots on the ground and political headquarters in states that are definitely in play. Romney has had to move his around quite a bit. He had to give up on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, etc. I think he is still hoping that Ryan is popular enough in Wisconsin to give them a battle there.
Personally, I don't really care about the national elections as much as I do local and state ones which have more of an impact on my day-to-day living than what goes on in D.C. -- I forgot that SD didn't have a state income tax, so I've been stoked that I've been saving ~ 100$ each pay check as compared to Colorado where I was getting bent over tax-wise. If Romney wins, I just hope things can get better. However, a lot of that burden rests on Congress, which is just a cluster**** and has been for a very, very long itme.