Sullivan is a great read, and the debate swing has been huge, but he has been a little hysteric about it, bemoaning the election lost mid-debate. Just like the people who called it game-set-match with the 47% tape, overselling a significant bump as "decisive" is an overreaction.
FiveThirtyEight today noted that Pew poll is a big positive for Mitt, but it's tempered by more tepid polling for Romney across the board. Obama certainly let Mitt back in, but the Sullivan article reminded me of a lot of fatalistic sports fans who give up all hope when their team allows one bad scoring drive. It will be tight to the end, and Obama would be best served by not over-correcting and getting too aggressive or panicked like many of his supporters.