The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community - View Single Post - Andrew Sulluvan's latest column: Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?

SoCalBronco · 10-08-2012, 10:32 PM

Yes, Romney's advantage among Independents is high.....Battleground poll had it at like 15. I dont think its quite that high, that might be a post-debate sugar high, but I do think its probably around 8 points or so, which means Obama would need D+4 or D+5 turnout to offset it, D+3 which is the average would not get it done, especially where Romney will get a slightly higher share of GOP votes than Obama does for Dems (there is not much of a difference there, maybe like 90-92 to 88 or so). If there is really more than a 10 point edge in independents, there is no concievable way Obama can win. I dont think its 10+ though, but its in prolly in striking distance of 10.

10-08-2012, 10:32 PM	#5
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,319 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	Yes, Romney's advantage among Independents is high.....Battleground poll had it at like 15. I dont think its quite that high, that might be a post-debate sugar high, but I do think its probably around 8 points or so, which means Obama would need D+4 or D+5 turnout to offset it, D+3 which is the average would not get it done, especially where Romney will get a slightly higher share of GOP votes than Obama does for Dems (there is not much of a difference there, maybe like 90-92 to 88 or so). If there is really more than a 10 point edge in independents, there is no concievable way Obama can win. I dont think its 10+ though, but its in prolly in striking distance of 10. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!