Originally Posted by SoCalBronco
To be fair, I think in PEW's turnout model, they had it something like R+2, which is not realistic, although most liberals on this forum told me a few weeks ago that the turnout models don't matter so long as there are sufficient amounts of likely voters, and this poll does have more than the usual 400-500 sample.
Just as NYT/CBS poll from a few weeks ago having Obama up 8 using D+11 was dumb, I dont think R+2 is realistic, either. I dont care about the likely/non likely. The turnout model is what is important. I know its prolly not going to be R+2 and I sure as hell know its not going to be D+7 like in 08. There just isnt that much of a gap in intensity. It will likely settle around the average of D+3 or maybe D+2 since there now appears to be a slight edge in intensity in favor of the GOP.
That said, I would not be surprised if Romney was ahead by 1 or 2 points, or tied. I think 4 is a little high, but I definitely would not be surprsied to see him very narrowly ahead at this juncture.
The reason it favors R's is because they took the RV and turned that into LV based on the enthusiasm they were seeing in their polling. I agree tho, +5 is generous, and it won't be that. I think it will be even and best case scenario more R turnout based on enthusiasm.
Also, Romney is polling so much better with I's right now that could have a huge say in it.