Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalBronco
To be fair, I think in PEW's turnout model, they had it something like R+2, which is not realistic, although most liberals on this forum told me a few weeks ago that the turnout models don't matter so long as there are sufficient amounts of likely voters, and this poll does have more than the usual 400-500 sample.
Just as NYT/CBS poll from a few weeks ago having Obama up 8 using D+11 was dumb, I dont think R+2 is realistic, either. I dont care about the likely/non likely. The turnout model is what is important. I know its prolly not going to be R+2 and I sure as hell know its not going to be D+7 like in 08. There just isnt that much of a gap in intensity. It will likely settle around the average of D+3 or maybe D+2 since there now appears to be a slight edge in intensity in favor of the GOP.
That said, I would not be surprised if Romney was ahead by 1 or 2 points, or tied. I think 4 is a little high, but I definitely would not be surprsied to see him very narrowly ahead at this juncture.
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The reason it favors R's is because they took the RV and turned that into LV based on the enthusiasm they were seeing in their polling. I agree tho, +5 is generous, and it won't be that. I think it will be even and best case scenario more R turnout based on enthusiasm.
Also, Romney is polling so much better with I's right now that could have a huge say in it.