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SoCalBronco · 10-07-2012, 06:50 PM

The only thing that matters in any poll is:
1) The turnout projection
2) The share of the white vote the President gets.

Turnout model has to be somewhere around D+3 to be accurate (he's not going to hit +7 like in 08, thats not just realistic, party intensity is about even this time, so it will return to the long term average), and for the President to be truly ahead, he has to be right at (at least) or cross the 40% barrier in terms of share of the white vote. If he is above 40%, it will be very hard for Romney to win. Romney's share of the non-white vote is expected to be somewhere around 25-30%.

10-07-2012, 06:50 PM	#3
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,288 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	The only thing that matters in any poll is: 1) The turnout projection 2) The share of the white vote the President gets. Turnout model has to be somewhere around D+3 to be accurate (he's not going to hit +7 like in 08, thats not just realistic, party intensity is about even this time, so it will return to the long term average), and for the President to be truly ahead, he has to be right at (at least) or cross the 40% barrier in terms of share of the white vote. If he is above 40%, it will be very hard for Romney to win. Romney's share of the non-white vote is expected to be somewhere around 25-30%. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH! Last edited by SoCalBronco; 10-07-2012 at 06:52 PM..