Originally Posted by Requiem
Every electoral vote matters.
Because it is quite possible that Obama's internal polling shows that Iowa is closer than 7 percent. 7 percent is probably a statistical outlier. Most polls I've seen for Iowa have it within the margin of error (~3%) or a little higher. Obama is going to be making the rounds through all the battle ground states over the next 40 days. Leave no stone unturned.
Obama's electoral map strategy is quite simple. If he wins Florida, Mitt needs all of OH, VA, IA, NH, NC, CO, NV and NM to win. That is pretty much all the swing states. Chance of that happening? Slim and none. It's all about electorate dynamics. The more states he can win now, the harder it will be for the Republicans to take the Electoral College in 2016.
Simply put, Obama can't get too comfortable. That is what the Democrats are most worried about -- that the Obama campaign will take the polling numbers that are showing well from other sources and be lax on the campaign trail. They don't need to tout these numbers either, because it might actually lower turn out in key states if people think he already has it in the bag.
Obama's victory over McCain was one of the biggest in the history of Presidential elections. It's wishful thinking (even with Obama's misshandling of several things while in office) to think that a weak candidate (which is what Romney is) who has ran a horrendous campaign is going to swing a ~7% national vote deficit and reclaim a majority of states that Obama won in 2008.
Mittens is in trouble.
That's the entire point. We are inundated with poll after poll showing Obama up big in these states. Both campaigns know that their own polls show the race much closer.
This thread was created in order to discredit a pollster who historically has been very accurate. A pollster who is showing Romney doing much better than all the other polls show. Going by Rasmussen's poll, Romney isn't in as bad a shape as we are led to believe. Romney doesn't have to swing 7% of the vote. That 7% was not the norm, and this election will return to the norm that we are used to seeing. If that happens, and Romney wins more of the I vote, which polling shows he is, than he has a good chance swinging some of these close states.