Originally Posted by Old Dude
Concerning the disparity in polls:
I can easily understand why Obama would perform better in polls that include cell phones. Romney's strongest age group is the over-65 bracket and far more of them tend to exclusively use landlines. (I myself have a cellphone, but I don't think I've made more than a dozen calls on it in the past year and I rarely bother to even charge it.)
Younger voters certainly favored Obama last time around and I don't have any doubt that more of them exclusively use cell phones. Other demographics are consistent with that as well.
What I don't really understand is why Obama tends to poll higher in systems that use a live person to conduct the questioning rather than an automated "robo-call." I don't see why the results should be any different. Anyone care to share any insight on that?
What I understood from 538 is that it's part and parcell of the cell phone issue. It is illegal to robo call cell phones, and there's only one robo call poll that also uses live people to call cell phones. In other words, there are almost no non-live polls that include cell phones, so the non-live polls are less favorable to Obama because they are also no cell phone polls.