It. Doesn't. Matter.
Guys...people on both sides. Listen. At this point in the race, no
national polls matter. Not registered voters, not likely voters. Not likability, not favorability. Not approval rating, not country is on the right track.
The lines have already been drawn. There are a certain number of states that will go either red or blue no matter what, and there are a few select battleground states. Some say there are 12, but many say there are only nine. Pennsylvania (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/
) and Michigan (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Michigan/
) are assumed to be blue, and South Carolina is assumed to be red. This gives Obama 237 electoral votes and Romney 191, with 270 needed to win. The remaining states in play are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
Now people who listen to swing state polls would have you believe that the gap is very narrow, but anyone who has studied statistics knows that an average doesn't mean anything in an individual winner take all argument, not to mention that it assumes that each state is weighted equally as far as the electorate is concerned.
What you need to pay attention to is the races in each individual state.
NV - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Nevada/
CO - 9 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Colorado/
IA - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Iowa/
WI - 10 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Wisconsin/
OH - 18 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Ohio/
NH - 4 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/New_Hampshire/
VA - 13 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Virginia/
NC - 15 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/North_Carolina/
FL - 29 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Florida/
As you can see, this already gives Obama 273 votes without Ohio or Florida even factored in. In order for Romney to win, he would have to seal Iowa, Florida and Ohio while stealing at least one of those states in which the poll averages
(for that individual state) lean heavily toward Obama.