Originally Posted by DBruleU
We've been through this genius. Those polls where Obama is killing Romney are extremely biased. They over sample D's by sometimes 10+ points.
And you mean the same Rasmussen that in the past was the most accurate?
FYI, Ras goes cheap with the slanted robo calls and massively oversampling the GOP base up until the last week or so of every POTUS election. This is why they have massive swings, especially just before elections when they actually do some real polling.
Not so long ago he had double digit swings in a single week for both Ohio and Florida, the opposite way in each state. Its silly season for Ras until it gets close to election day and the numbers they'll be touting over the next four years need to start coming out.
Also, Nate Silver of 538 does a correction based on historical leaning and poll sampling within all of his predictions. He has Obama up by 51.1% to 47.8%, based on weighted rolling averages, which is likely a very solid indicator of a slight edge for Obama. Fact is though, those numbers get a lot less pleasant when you look at his numbers for swing states. Obama has consistent leads in all but Missouri and North Carolina. That leads to a 332 to 206 electoral college landslide.
As for actually getting people out to vote, well, Obama is destroying Romney in the number of field offices he has in swing states and people on the ground. Romney's big edge is supposed to be a media blitz, but how do you do that when everyone thinks you're full of **** before you even start?