Originally Posted by Kid A
Highly unlikely. Given economic situation (recovering, but very slowly) history would point toward winning by a couple points. '08 was a perfect storm of Bush fatigue + financial disaster. I mean, Indiana going blue? Not going to be even close this year. Dems should be more than happy if they can hold onto Ohio and Florida. Which, as of now, is the most likely outcome.
Both campaigns in 08 saw more movement in the polls, including after conventions. 538 has noted that they have been especially hard to move this year. That's why the RNC generating a very small bump for Romney wasn't a total disaster, but Obama get a decent one was a significant sign. Will be interesting to see if the debates have greater power in swinging the needle. I doubt it.
I think you're downplaying what a horrible candidate Romney really is. And how much Obama has overcome his 08 detriments (foreign policy, capacity to lead). McCain was actually a candidate that appealed to both moderates and the base for different reasons. Romney does neither. I suppose we'll see. But I have a hard time believe any Obama 08 voters change their vote for Romney, no matter how dissatisfied they are.
We'll know more once the debates start and we see the candidates side by side--and we'll be able to better measure the starkness between them.