Originally Posted by Kid A
Highly unlikely. Given economic situation (recovering, but very slowly) history would point toward winning by a couple points. '08 was a perfect storm of Bush fatigue + financial disaster. I mean, Indiana going blue? Not going to be even close this year. Dems should be more than happy if they can hold onto Ohio and Florida. Which, as of now, is the most likely outcome.
Both campaigns in 08 saw more movement in the polls, including after conventions. 538 has noted that they have been especially hard to move this year. That's why the RNC generating a very small bump for Romney wasn't a total disaster, but Obama get a decent one was a significant sign. Will be interesting to see if the debates have greater power in swinging the needle. I doubt it.
He'll probably win by maybe 2-3% in the popular vote, but I really think the electoral votes he'll grab will be in the range of 320-340. The way it's looking right now Obama should take Florida, Ohio, PA, and probably even VA, WI and CO where he's at least a cointoss if not better. It won't be as great a margin as in '08 but Obama is comfortably leading Romney, and I think it would take a major event to shake that up.