Originally Posted by Pseudofool
I'm thinking Obama might win bigger than he did with McCain. McCain actually got a convention bounce, and it wasn't until after the debates that Obama should a substantive lead.
Highly unlikely. Given economic situation (recovering, but very slowly) history would point toward winning by a couple points. '08 was a perfect storm of Bush fatigue + financial disaster. I mean, Indiana going blue? Not going to be even close this year. Dems should be more than happy if they can hold onto Ohio and Florida. Which, as of now, is the most likely outcome.
Both campaigns in 08 saw more movement in the polls, including after conventions. 538 has noted that they have been especially hard to move this year. That's why the RNC generating a very small bump for Romney wasn't a total disaster, but Obama get a decent one was a significant sign. Will be interesting to see if the debates have greater power in swinging the needle. I doubt it.