Quote:
Originally Posted by DBruleU
You guys can all bash Rasmussen all you want. But you ignore the fact that they are consistently accurate in their polling. You convenvetinalty ignore what I said earlier.
I was talking to a friend about polling and he made a good point that further illustrates what I have been saying.
Actual turnout in 2008 was Dem +7, and incidentally, Obama also won the popular vote by +7.
In 2010, the actual turnout was Repub +2 !!! Yet all these polls are using sample sizes based on 2008!! Or WORSE. One poll had Obama up +7, but the sample size was Dem+10!!! PLUS TEN!! That would assume that Dem turnout this year would be BETTER than in 2008!!! NO WAY THAT HAPPENS!! These polls are meant to INFLUENCE. Polls will get more accurate with about 1-2 weeks to go until the election. That's because they stop trying to influence....and actually start worrying about their reputations as accurate pollsters.
Turnout will probably be closer to 2010, which was Repub +2.....could be even, could be higher.
If these polls sampled based on R+2.....Romney would be up by at least 6-7 points.
It all comes down to turnout.
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You can't compare mid-term elections to presidential elections. Mid-terms are more influenced by older voters, and will tend to skew more towards conservatives anyways. Presidential election turnout is leagues different, both in demographics and
pure numbers of voters. I think you're making the same mistake you're accusing the pollsters of doing...