Originally Posted by SoCalBronco
Bush has struggled to get his approval rating back up over 50. Its around 48 or something, he needs to get it up to around 54,55 by election day. While money isnt going to be the advantage that Bush thought he would have i really think the 41 or so million the White House invested very early this year in building an even better election day ground team and infrastructure is going to keep Bush right in the thick of it. Im hoping W can pull it off but it seems right now if nothing changes Kerry will win by a few percentage points. It is still early though.
45-50 gives Bush the advantage because even then you've got a good amount of U's that still like the job he's doing. Over 50% and Bush wins.
Bush is in weird territory for an incumbent Prez. His approval rating is below the ratings of Presidents who were re-elected, but it is also much higher then sitting Presidents who were defeated.