I like Ridley well enough. . . for what he is, which is average ADP 82-- so top of the 8th round in a ten-team league. He's an RB3 / flex option, and I think he has solid value in that role. Who else is gonna fill the Law Firm role in that offense? Woodhead is a 100-150 touches a year guy, and Vereen is 5'9 205. The rest of their backs are rookies, and Vereen is already banged up. Ridley is 5'11 220, and has the most experience of the group behind Woodhead. He's clearly going to get the lion's share of goal line carries, and will be first in line for the chain-moving and clock-killing duties. He has an obvious ceiling, but remember-- BJGE still had 11 and 13 rushing TDs the last two years, even in that pass-heavy attack. The other backs avilable at that ADP are Donald Brown, CJ Spiller, Jonathon Stewart and Mark Ingram. By-passing their durability concerns, which of them offers a higher upside and more clearly-defined role?
Holding my breath, but I actually do like his chances to come pretty close-- IF he stays mostly healthy. He isn't old, though, and doesn't have a ton of mileage on his legs. I've always liked his skill set, nice combination of burst and power, and he's decisive. He clearly ain't bright, but he's a RB-- you ever heard Emmitt speak? IMO, College Pete's love approach resonates with Lynch, and has him focused. I also think their line really started to click in the ZBS last year, and I expect their run blocking to be strong again this season-- and Lynch fits the scheme perfectly. And we've seen the positive results on the running game when a mobile QB (like Wilson) forces that backside end to honor the boots. We saw it here last year, the threat of Tebow taking off kept ends from constantly crashing against the run game. Lynch caught 48 passes his second season, and has room to improve over last year's 28, which could off-set a potential drop of a few TDs. Turbin stealing work down the stretch is probably my biggest concern-- but I think Lynch's overall situation is just as good as guys like Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte who are going before him, or Michael Turner and Steven Jackson who are right behind him. He's the 12th overall back off the board, and I think he's fine as a high-end RB2. I'd probably feel safer taking Graham/Gronk or a beast receiver in that spot, though.
Flip a coin in terms of production, I basically have them as 3 and 3A behind Rogers- Brees - Brady. I see Matt as a little safer bet for huge numbers, but I'll draft the big hoss Newton over the injury-prone Stafford, even if Cam does also take more punishment. Stafford is clearly worth the first round pick likely required to draft either of them. . . but he's only finished one season, and that does make me nervous. Taking a second-year QB-- especially one whose unique rushing TD numbers were such a huge part of his dominance-- certainly is a calculated risk as well, but I admit that I've become a Cam believer. His commitment and work ethic were what I questioned, but I'm now sold. The talent is obvious, and I think he will improve enough as a passer to cover any drop in rushing TDs-- and I still expect big numbers there, as OC Rob Chudzinski isn't going to go away from the red zone approach that was such dynamite last year. Neither looks to have a great defense, and I expect both to get plenty of opportunities to cut it loose. Don't really think you can go wrong with either, if taking a QB at the back end of the first / early second is the approach you want to take.
Last edited by serious hops; 08-26-2012 at 03:09 AM..