this article represents the author's "first draft" in the 2012 election cycle, and was published in February, based solely on historical data available at that time.
They revised their estimates in June, to reflect the dismal 2nd quarter economic figures. They now predict Romney winning with 290 electoral votes.
As the author states in the original article: "A key finding of the model is that economic trends—whether things are getting better or worse than they were a month ago—are more meaningful than the level state of the economy. In other words, whether the unemployment rate is increasing or decreasing is more important than what the unemployment rate actually is."
he then goes on in his most recent blog post to do his best to undermine the conclusions of his own model.
Read more here: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/