The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community - View Single Post - University of Colorado analysis predicts Romney win in presidential race

SoCalBronco · 08-22-2012, 07:40 PM

I've always been fascinated by these predictive models, they are generally based on very complicated formulas that generally exclude everything except for economic variables. There is a good amount of dispute as to which formulas are the most accurate. I know Roy Fair has his own system and others have their own, I did see another analysis recently I think it was posted on the Atlantic Wire which also suggested a 53/47 two way split in favor of Romney. I think its based on the concept that at some point, the economic climate will create a bottom falling out effect in the incumbent share of support.

We'll see what happens. One can never tell with such models, especially when a foreign crisis, such as something happening in the ME may totally change things.

08-22-2012, 07:40 PM	#18
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,303 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	I've always been fascinated by these predictive models, they are generally based on very complicated formulas that generally exclude everything except for economic variables. There is a good amount of dispute as to which formulas are the most accurate. I know Roy Fair has his own system and others have their own, I did see another analysis recently I think it was posted on the Atlantic Wire which also suggested a 53/47 two way split in favor of Romney. I think its based on the concept that at some point, the economic climate will create a bottom falling out effect in the incumbent share of support. We'll see what happens. One can never tell with such models, especially when a foreign crisis, such as something happening in the ME may totally change things. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!