Well, I think it's probably over, but there are still some possibilities...
1. Still four weeks and one debate left.
2. Current polls could be a little skewed by "new" voters who won't show up on election day, especially if negative attacks on Obama start sticking and reduce enthusiasm.
3. The Bradley factor (a big unknown generally, and in this election.)
4. Could always be some huge foreign affairs crisis that could tip things back in his direction, but it would have to be gigantic to top the economic issues at this point.
Depending on which poll numbers you look at, McCain is certainly "within range" of capturing Indiana (where he's still leading by a hair),Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada and maybe New Mexico.
If he were to take all of those states, (and win those where he's still assumed to be safely ahead), he'd have 289 electoral votes - a 19 vote margin of error.
So he could lose a couple of the smaller midwest or western states and still come out on top.
Not likely, but not impossible.
(The thing is that even under that scenario, he absolutely positively cannot afford to lose either Ohio or Florida. He's got to hit those states with everything he's got. A loss in either and it really is over.)
Last edited by Old Dude; 10-08-2008 at 10:12 AM..