The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community

FRED JONES 4-8
3 ROUND MOCK DRAFT WITH 3 SELECTION PROBABILITIES AND ODDS ON A TRADE
This mock draft uses the current THR player rankings and team needs information. It presents the three highest selection probabilities for each pick in the first round by the team holding that pick. It shows no trades of picks, but does show the odds of the pick being traded within the first round.
The probability percentages are based on Value at a given pick Fulfilling a team's Needs. As one can see from the mock draft, teams have some easy decisions and some tough decisions. When the probability percentages are close, 2% to 4%, between the team's three highest selection options, a team's selection of one of the three players shown is basically a toss-up. This is the dilemma facing the teams in their war rooms on draft day. Now you know why when the coach is interviewed after his team's recent selection, he says, "We had him tagged all along as the guy we wanted." He can say that with a straight face because they had multiple players "tagged" for selection at their pick.
The likelihood of the pick being traded within the first round is shown by the odds entry. It's based on trading the pick but still getting a first round positional player that fulfills their highest need. The largest odds on a team trading a pick is capped at 75%.
Observations on this mock draft and its probabilities
This mock draft now begins to show signs of serious upheaval if certain transactions occur. The possible trades of CB Patrick Surtain, DE Darren Howard, and OT LJ Shelton, along with the Browns' enviable situation enabling them to trade down and still get players that Romeo Crennel wants would cause draft day jockeying that would make following leader changes in a NASCAR race seem easy. Combine this with the number of teams that have maximum odds of participating in first round trades (Lions, Panthers, Saints, Broncos, Jets & Falcons) and you have the makings of a draft that would be as chaotic as a WWE event. It's going to be fun to watch!
PROBABILITY OF SELECTION
PICK TEAM HIGHEST SECOND HIGHEST THIRD HIGHEST CHANCE OF TRADE
PLAYER POS % PLAYER POS % PLAYER POS %
1 49ERS AARON RODGERS QB 31 BRAYLON EDWARDS WR 17 RONNIE BROWN RB 16 53%
2 DOLPHINS RONNIE BROWN RB 27 DERRICK JOHNSON LB 16 BRAYLON EDWARDS WR 14 12%
3 BROWNS BRAYLON EDWARDS WR 20 ALEX SMITH QB 17 DERRICK JOHNSON LB 17 30%
4 BEARS DERRICK JOHNSON LB 23 CEDRIC BENSON RB 23 MIKE WILLIAMS WR 19 12%
5 BUCCANEERS CEDRIC BENSON RB 30 MIKE WILLIAMS WR 22 ALEX BARRON OT 13 13%
6 TITANS ANTREL ROLLE CB 27 ALEX BARRON OT 18 MIKE WILLIAMS WR 15 33%
7 VIKINGS MIKE WILLIAMS WR 26 SHAWNE MERRIMAN DE 22 ALEX BARRON OT 11 23%
8 CARDINALS CARNELL WILLIAMS RB 24 ADAM JONES CB 19 ALEX SMITH QB 15 11%
9 REDSKINS SHAWNE MERRIMAN DE 26 ADAM JONES CB 20 TROY WILLIAMSON WR 17 11%
10 LIONS ALEX BARRON OT 25 DAVID POLLACK DE 23 TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 14 75%
11 COWBOYS DAVID POLLACK DE 26 TROY WILLIAMSON WR 18 THOMAS DAVIS S 14 12%
12 CHARGERS ERASMUS JAMES DE 22 TROY WILLIAMSON WR 19 JAMMAL BROWN OT 16 20%
13 TEXANS ADAM JONES CB 21 JAMMAL BROWN OT 18 THOMAS DAVIS S 14 45%
14 PANTHERS JAMMAL BROWN OT 17 TROY WILLIAMSON WR 15 KEVIN BURNETT LB 13 75%
15 CHIEFS CARLOS ROGERS CB 23 MARCUS SPEARS DE 17 ALEX SMITH QB 17 36%
16 SAINTS ALEX SMITH QB 22 TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 18 TROY WILLIAMSON WR 13 75%
17 BENGALS MARCUS SPEARS DE 25 HEATH MILLER TE 18 TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 15 49%
18 VIKINGS DAN CODY DE 23 KEVIN BURNETT LB 16 THOMAS DAVIS S 16 3%
19 RAMS MATT ROTH DE 16 KHALIF BARNES OT 16 THOMAS DAVIS S 15 45%
20 COWBOYS TROY WILLIAMSON WR 24 THOMAS DAVIS S 19 KHALIF BARNES OT 17 3%
21 JAGUARS JUSTIN MILLER CB 19 DEMARCUS WARE DE 18 HEATH MILLER TE 15 51%
22 RAVENS MARK CLAYTON WR 25 KHALIF BARNES OT 18 TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 18 50%
23 SEAHAWKS KEVIN BURNETT LB 18 REGGIE BROWN WR 15 DEMARCUS WARE DE 14 7%
24 PACKERS THOMAS DAVIS S 20 DEMARCUS WARE DE 17 MARLIN JACKSON CB 13 3%
25 BRONCOS DEMARCUS WARE DE 21 TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 19 BRODNEY POOL S 15 75%
26 JETS TRAVIS JOHNSON DT 25 HEATH MILLER TE 18 MARLIN JACKSON CB 15 75%
27 FALCONS KHALIF BARNES OT 17 BRODNEY POOL S 17 SHAUN CODY DT 16 75%
28 CHARGERS REGGIE BROWN WR 23 SHAUN CODY DT 18 MARCUS JOHNSON OT 16 3%
29 COLTS SHAUN CODY DT 19 MARLIN JACKSON CB 19 CHANNING CROWDER LB 16 3%
30 STEELERS HEATH MILLER TE 23 MARLIN JACKSON CB 18 JUSTIN TUCK DE 14 3%
31 EAGLES RODDY WHITE WR 20 ALEX SMITH TE 16 JUSTIN TUCK DE 15 3%
32 PATRIOTS CHANNING CROWDER LB 21 MARLIN JACKSON CB 19 ELTON BROWN OG 17 3%
33 49ERS ANTTAJ HAWTHORNE DT 18 JUSTIN TUCK DE 16 MARLIN JACKSON CB 16
34 BROWNS JASON CAMPBELL QB 21 LUIS CASTILLO DT 16 DARRYL BLACKSTOCK LB 15
35 EAGLES ALEX SMITH TE 20 JUSTIN TUCK DE 19 ELTON BROWN OG 14
36 BUCCANEERS BRODNEY POOL WR 28 TERRENCE MURPHY WR 16 LUIS CASTILLO DT 15
37 TITANS MARCUS JOHNSON OT 23 DARRYL BLACKSTOCK LB 20 CIATRICK FASON RB 14
38 RAIDERS DARRYL BLACKSTOCK LB 18 JUSTIN TUCK DE 18 MARLIN JACKSON CB 15
39 BEARS CIATRICK FASON RB 26 MARLIN JACKSON CB 19 TERRENCE MURPHY WR 17
40 SAINTS ODELL THURMAN LB 22 LUIS CASTILLO DT 21 MARLIN JACKSON CB 20
41 LIONS JUSTIN TUCK DE 29 LUIS CASTILLO DT 20 MARLIN JACKSON CB 16
42 COWBOYS ADAM TERRY OT 21 BARRETT RUUD LB 20 JOSH BULLOCKS S 20
43 GIANTS MARLIN JACKSON CB 23 LUIS CASTILLO DT 18 CHRIS CANTY DE 13
44 CARDINALS FABIAN WASHINGTON CB 28 LUIS CASTILLO DT 19 CHARLIE FRYE QB 15
45 PANTHERS VERNAND MORENCY RB 21 BARRETT RUUD LB 18 LUIS CASTILLO DT 16
46 CHIEFS CHRIS CANTY DE 20 LUIS CASTILLO DT 20 CHARLIE FRYE QB 17
47 TEXANS BARRETT RUUD LB 21 JOSH BULLOCKS S 18 CHRIS COLMER OT 17
48 BENGALS DAVID BAAS OC 27 LUIS CASTILLO DT 23 JOSH BULLOCKS S 15
49 VIKINGS ELTON BROWN OG 34 LUIS CASTILLO DT 18 JOSH BULLOCKS S 17
50 RAMS COREY WEBSTER CB 20 JOSH BULLOCKS S 18 LOGAN MANKINS OG 15
51 PACKERS ERIC GREEN CB 24 CHARLIE FRYE QB 24 LUIS CASTILLO DT 17
52 JAGUARS TERRENCE MURPHY WR 20 JJ ARRINGTON RB 18 CHRIS COLMER OT 15
53 RAVENS LUIS CASTILLO DT 26 BRYANT MCFADDEN CB 18 CHRIS COLMER OT 16
54 SEAHAWKS MATT JONES WR 20 CHRIS SPENCER OC 18 BRYANT MCFADDEN CB 18
55 BILLS MIKE PATTERSON DT 23 BRYANT MCFADDEN CB 18 CHRIS COLMER OT 14
56 BRONCOS JOSH BULLOCKS S 19 JONATHAN BABINEAUX DT 19 CHRIS HENRY WR 16
57 JETS BRYANT MCFADDEN CB 26 CHRIS SPENCER OC 17 CHRIS HENRY WR 14
58 PACKERS CHARLIE FRYE QB 33 LOGAN MANKINS OG 19 JONATHAN BABINEAUX DT 16
59 FALCONS JONATHAN BABINEAUX DT 23 ERNEST SHAZOR S 20 CHRIS HENRY WR 16
60 COLTS BRANDON BROWNER CB 26 LOGAN MANKINS OG 18 CHRIS SPENCER OC 15
61 CHARGERS CHRIS COLMER OT 30 ERNEST SHAZOR S 18 CJ MOSLEY DT 17
62 STEELERS STANLEY WILSON CB 22 CHRIS HENRY WR 18 CHRIS SPENCER OC 15
63 EAGLES LOGAN MANKINS OG 25 JJ ARRINGTON RB 23 ERNEST SHAZOR S 16
64 PATRIOTS EVAN MATHIS OG 24 RONALD BARTELL CB 17 JJ ARRINGTON RB 17
65 49ERS JJ ARRINGTON RB 28 CHRIS HENRY WR 22 ERNEST SHAZOR S 18
66 RAMS ERNEST SHAZOR S 25 CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 21 CHRIS HENRY WR 17
67 BROWNS CJ MOSLEY DT 25 LANCE MITCHELL LB 18 RONALD BARTELL CB 17
68 TITANS CHRIS HENRY WR 28 LANCE MITCHELL LB 18 ANDREW WALTER QB 18
69 RAIDERS ANDREW WALTER QB 24 CHRIS SPENCER OC 16 DONTE NICHOLSON S 15
70 DOLPHINS KYLE ORTON QB 20 WESLEY BRITT OT 16 ROSCOE PARRISH WR 15
71 BUCCANEERS ROSCOE PARRISH WR 33 CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 18 KEVIN EVERETT TE 14
72 LIONS ATIYYAH ELLISON DT 21 CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 19 RONALD BARTELL CB 16
73 TEXANS MARION BARBER RB 22 DONTE NICHOLSON S 22 WESLEY BRITT OT 21
74 GIANTS FRED GIBSON WR 23 ERIC SHELTON RB 17 DONTE NICHOLSON S 14
75 CARDINALS KEVIN EVERETT TE 25 LANCE MITCHELL LB 20 CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 16
76 REDSKINS VINCENT JACKSON WR 27 CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 21 RONALD BARTELL CB 21
77 EAGLES ERIC SHELTON RB 30 JOVAN HAYE DE 22 DONTE NICHOLSON S 21
78 TEXANS DONTE NICHOLSON S 32 WESLEY BRITT OT 30 CRAPHONSO THORPE WR 24
79 PANTHERS CRAPHONSO THORPE WR 26 LANCE MITCHELL LB 25 OSHIOMOGHO ATOGWE S 16
80 VIKINGS LANCE MITCHELL LB 31 OSHIOMOGHO ATOGWE S 21 WESLEY BRITT OT 18
81 RAMS CHRIS KEMOEATU OG 35 WESLEY BRITT OT 25 MARK BRADLEY WR 20
82 SAINTS MARK BRADLEY WR 24 RONALD BARTELL CB 23 RONALD FIELDS DT 15
83 BENGALS OSHIOMOGHO ATOGWE S 20 JOEL DREESSEN TE 19 COURTNEY ROBY WR 18
84 RAVENS CHRIS SPENCER OC 31 RONALD BARTELL CB 20 WESLEY BRITT OT 20
85 SEAHAWKS RONALD BARTELL CB 21 KAY-JAY HARRIS RB 20 WESLEY BRITT OT 18
86 BILLS ANTONIO PERKINS CB 25 WESLEY BRITT OT 23 COURTNEY ROBY WR 14
87 JAGUARS JOVAN HAYE DE 26 KAY-JAY HARRIS RB 24 WESLEY BRITT OT 20
88 JETS COURTNEY ROBY WR 28 JASON BROWN OC 18 JOEL DREESSEN TE 17
89 PACKERS BILL SWANCUTT DE 25 MICHAEL BOLEY LB 22 CLAUDE TERRELL OG 22
90 FALCONS JEROME MATHIS WR 24 DOMONIQUE FOXWORTH CB 24 SEAN CONSIDINE S 19
91 BUCCANEERS WESLEY BRITT OT 34 RONALD FIELDS DT 20 CLAUDE TERRELL OG 20
92 COLTS MICHAEL BOLEY DT 27 KAY-JAY HARRIS RB 19 CLAUDE TERRELL OG 18
93 STEELERS MICHAEL MUNOZ OT 22 KAY-JAY HARRIS RB 20 CRAIG BRAGG WR 20
94 EAGLES RONALD FIELDS DT 30 GEORGE GAUSE DE 24 SEAN CONSIDINE S 23
95 CARDINALS DAVID GREENE QB 28 ROBERT MCCUNE LB 25 JEREMY PARQUET OT 17
96 TITANS KAY-JAY HARRIS RB 39 ROBERT MCCUNE LB 26 SEAN CONSIDINE S 15
97 BRONCOS CRAIG BRAGG WR 30 CLAUDE TERRELL OG 21 RYAN MOATS RB 20
98 SEAHAWKS RYAN MOATS RB 29 JASON BROWN OC 26 JEREMY PARQUET OT 16
99 CHIEFS JR RUSSELL WR 29 ROBERT MCCUNE LB 19 FRANK GORE RB 16
100 PATRIOTS DOMONIQUE FOXWORTH CB 44 JEREMY PARQUET OT 16 FRANK GORE RB 15
101 BRONCOS CLAUDE TERRELL OG 33 FRANK GORE RB 20 ROBERT MCCUNE LB 18

I wish I could make this so you can read it better but Im not sure how too. I could live with this as well. Ware isn't a huge need and I would rather have Johnson in the first.