Originally Posted by AdamJT13

THIRD ROUND

Tennessee (Jevon Kearse, $7.83 million, 14 GP/14 GS)
Kansas City (John Tait, $5.61 million, 13/13)
St. Louis (Grant Wistrom, $5.5 million, 9/9)

FOURTH ROUND
Denver (Bert Berry, $5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tampa Bay (Warren Sapp, $5.23 million, 16/16)
New England (Damien Woody, $5.17 million, 16/16)
Indianapolis (Marcus Washington, $4.17 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tennessee (Robaire Smith, $4.39 million, 16/16)

FIFTH ROUND
New England (Ted Washington, $3.5 million, 16/16)
Carolina (Jeno James, $3.52 million, 14/14)
Philadelphia (Carlos Emmons, $3.3 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Reggie Howard, $3.62 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Jason Webster, $3.01 million, 10/9)
Philadelphia (Bobby Taylor, $2.95 million, 10/0)
Oakland (Charlie Garner, $2.91 million, 3/3 IR)

SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (David Macklin, $2.6 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (Brian Young, $2.51 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Deon Grant, $2.42 million, 16/16)
Dallas (Ebenezer Ekuban, $2.52 million, 16/11)
Baltimore (Marcus Robinson, $2.25 million, 16/7)
Oakland (Matt Stinchcomb, $1.9 million, 16/16)
Philadelphia (Bobbie Williams, $1.75 million, 16/16)

SEVENTH ROUND
San Francisco (Tai Streets, $1.5 million, 13/12)
Seattle (Reggie Tongue, $1.33 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (John St. Clair, $1.3 million, 14/14)
Dallas (Mario Edwards, $1.5 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Travis Kirschke, $1.6 million, 16/1)
St. Louis (David Loverne, $867,000, 15/13)
Philadelphia (Marco Coleman, $785,000, 16/16)
Seattle (Willie Williams, $760,000, 16/10)
New England (Bobby Hamilton, $685,000, 16/15)
Cincinnati (Matt O’Dwyer, $685,000, PUP 4/0)



Last year, two of the comp picks I projected were off by one round. The highest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up being the only third-rounder, and the lowest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up being the only fifth-rounder. This year, it’s possible that the comp for Wis-trom could be a fourth-rounder, the comps for Berry and Woody could be third-rounders, the comps for Webster, Taylor and Garner and Edwards could be sixth-rounders, and the comps for Stinchcomb and Bobbie Williams could be seventh-rounders. The other comps, if they are awarded for the players I’ve indicated, should be in the correct rounds.

If I am wrong about Mike Compton qualifying or any of the three bubble players -- Bobby Ham-ilton, Matt O’Dwyer and Jermaine Wiggins -- qualifying, it could affect the comp picks awarded.

If Mike Compton does not qualify, New England would not get a seventh-round comp for Bobby Hamilton, and Carolina would get a seventh-rounder for Jermaine Wiggins (if he qualifies).

If Bobby Hamilton does not qualify, New England would not get a seventh-round comp for Hamilton, and Oakland would get a seventh-rounder for Rick Mirer.

If neither Mike Compton nor Bobby Hamilton qualifies, New England would get neither a fifth-round comp for Ted Washington nor a seventh-rounder for Hamilton, and Carolina would get a seventh-rounder for Jermaine Wiggins (if he qualifies), and Oakland would get a seventh-rounder for Rick Mirer.

If Matt O’Dwyer does not qualify, Cincinnati would not get a seventh-round comp for him, and Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder for Cornell Green.

If Jermaine Wiggins does not qualify, any scenario in which Carolina would have gotten a sev-enth-round comp for him would instead result in San Francisco getting a non-compensatory pick after the seventh-round comp picks.

If Jermaine Wiggins’ value is determined to be higher than Matt O’Dwyer’s value, Carolina would get the 32nd comp pick instead of Cincinnati, and all of the above scenarios in which Caro-lina would have gotten a seventh-round comp would instead result in Cincinnati getting a seventh-rounder (in this case, Carolina already would have one). But even if Wiggins’ value would be higher than O’Dwyer’s value, if O’Dwyer does not qualify, Carolina would not have the 32nd comp pick because Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder for Cornell Green. Carolina would then be in the same situation as above, needing another team’s comp pick to be eliminated in order to receive a seventh-rounder for Wiggins.

In the event that fewer than 32 true comp picks are awarded, the first seven teams in line to re-ceive non-compensatory picks would be San Francisco, Cleveland, Miami, Oakland, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Tennessee, in order.

This year’s compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around March 21. After they’re an-nounced, I’ll try to review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I’ve already presented some other possibilities).

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

yep i saw that on the TFY Draft thing Bill. Now Williamson says we are going to get a third but we will see.

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the one third-round comp player got $5.33 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $3.95 million to $5.4 million, the only fifth-round comp player got $3.75 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.75 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round players got $1.5 million or less. When determining the approximate ranges for this year’s comps, I again used a 3.8-percent increase over last year’s levels and adjusted for playing time and postseason honors. Conveniently, there were gaps near the cutoff points for almost every round. For example, there were no comps for any players between $3.52 million (almost certainly a fifth-rounder) and $4.17 million (almost certainly a fourth-rounder). The one place where there is the biggest question is between the third and fourth rounds -- in particular, the comps for Bert Berry ($5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) and Damien Woody ($5.17 million, 16/16). I’ve projected that both of them will be fourth-round comps, although they could end up being third-rounders (one Denver newspaper has even reported that the Broncos would get a third-rounder). However, in each of the past two years, there have been players who signed for more than $5 million per season and were worth only fourth-round comps, so that’s where I’m projecting those two. One factor could be Ian Gold being released by the Buccaneers and being re-signed by the Broncos. He had signed for $5.464 million and, if the Broncos’ comp pick was for him instead of Berry, that might have been a third-round pick. But because he was released, he made only $2 million for one season. Since the Broncos signed two low-value qualifying players and lost three players, their comp will be for their highest-value player lost, which would be Berry. And I don’t think Berry’s contract is large enough to merit a third-round pick, despite his great season. But I could be wrong, and I could be with Woody, too.

Originally Posted by watermock

Knowing the NFL, they will try to screw us out of a first day pick. None of the three players above him went to the pro bowl, and one only played 9 games. I know there is more to it, but give me a break. Still pisses me off we lost him unless Arizona front loaded that bonus.

Originally Posted by wabbit

Who in the hell is this AdamTJ13

For cryin' out loud, that report is more detailed than the ACTUAL reports given the media before & after the ownership meetings

Does he work for the NFL...if not, some family intervention might be in order

I guess it's rich in detail, and according to njbil, quite accurate, but sheesh