Post-Convention Zogby :)
 

The Chimp is FUCT.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

Excerpts:

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics.


Hang it up George, You're Over.

I'm going to have to give this poll some bounce, lots of people are pumped after the convention. I remain optimistic that Bush is gone but I am not going to put alot into any polls until we have some debates.

Good point(s), Matt.

As for me, I can't wait for those debates! I just hope they're not rigged in advance. Everyone knows that's the only way Junior can win at anything.

BTW, great avatar and sig!

I expected Kerry to get a boost after the convention. That's almost standard operating procedure. Bush should get a post-convention bounce after the Republican Convention. That bounce will be more important because it's closer to the election. Nnyah!

How amusing. Wait till they start playing Kerry's clips. That's the bounce you anticipated after Cry for Me Argentina and Kerry tried to reinvent himself as a moderate?

The bump wasn't what they wanted. It did manage to capture the Van Halen crowd.

I still think it's hilarious that the biggest story coming out of the convention was the convention director using profanity because the balloons didn't drop on time. ROFL!

The whole affair was coreographed. It was like the frenchman on "Father of the Bride"

I still think it's hilarious that the biggest story coming out of the convention was the convention director using profanity because the balloons didn't drop on time.

If this is the "biggest story" you've heard, then you must be watching Faux News exclusively.

Personally, I find that "hilarious."

Kerry tried to reinvent himself as a moderate?

"Re-invent" himself? You're familiar with his voting record in the Senate and you don't believe he's already a "moderate?"

I guess this only goes to show just how far to the extreme, loony right you and your fellow bush lemmings and neocons currently reside.

The whole affair was coreographed(sic)

And you think the repuke convention won't be?

http://www.allhatnocattle.net/bush_father_son.gif
http://www.bartcop.com/one-term-loser.gif

I guess it depends on your definition doesn't it LABF.

I would ponder this to LABF.

Who is more liberal than Kerry?

More good news:

Bush is in deep trouble: An analysis of the post-convention Zogby poll

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team's attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.

The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush's standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush's job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.

The Bush campaign's efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore's total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush's courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.

Some Republicans defect to Kerry's camp

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp..._crossovers_dc

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Ohio resident Bob Stewart says of President Bush: "He's been a world-class polarizer. I don't know if I can stomach four more years with him as president. He misled us into the war in Iraq and has mismanaged everything since."

A raging Democrat? No, Stewart is a Republican, one of an unknown number of such voters who plan to back John Kerry, out of despair over the war in Iraq and disappointment over budget deficits and social policies.

It remains to be seen whether they can tip the scales in hotly contested middle American states like Ohio as the Democratic nominee courts them and battles Bush in the final three-month dash to November's election. In past elections defections from both parties have sometimes canceled each other out.

Kerry and running mate John Edwards kicked off that fight on Friday, leaving Boston and the concluded party convention for a two-week campaign swing across 21 states.

Quotes

"Clearly the job of president is over Bush's head.
He has proven himself to be dangerously incompetent...
Bush's reelection depends entirely on willful ignorance.
He might well ride the sea of ignorance right back into
the White House. It would not be the first time Americans
have chosen the demagogue over the competent."

--Charley Reese

Quotes

"He's been a world-class polarizer. I don't know if I can stomach four more years with him as president. He misled us into the war in Iraq and has mismanaged everything
since. I just have a gut feeling that Kerry can be trusted to make the right courageous
decisions and will make a good president. He showed that with his heroism in Vietnam."

--Ohio Republican Bob Stewart

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp..._crossovers_dc

How funny, you imply it's someone even remotely relevant. This is someone who voted Republican that is considering voting Democrat.
How amusing.

Go check the latest Gallup Poll Dimwit. People could see Kerry was a fake, the Speilberg docudrama sealed his fate.

Gosh, a Democrat promising the world on a twinkie. How typical.

Go check the latest Gallup Poll Dimwit.

Go check the latest Zogby Poll, dumbass

Quotes

"I always voted Republican before but I'm against Bush ever since
I found out that he doesn't love this country. His so-called military
record is a sham. And the worst part is that he lies so much. He lied
about weapons of mass destruction."

--Ron King, a Republican and Vietnam Veteran

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp..._crossovers_dc

So what? It's someone voting for Kerry.

Whatever the Zogby poll is, god knows.

The point is this dimwit, the Republican Convention hasn't even started for another month and the Gallup poll shows a Kerry decline. Don't blame the messenger.

I said before the polls are meaningless except for bandwagoners like you. The poll was very surprising tho.

Two Columnists from Newsday minimizing the poll that is allready older than the Gallup poll?

I am not going to fight polls and surveys. I said wait till after the Republican Convention.

Quotes

"They (the Democrats) succeeded in defining themselves as the mainstream party – and they really are, compared to the extremist Bush administration. The Bush people truly are the radicals these days. In fact this may be the most reactionary presidency in 100 years. And the Democrats are succeeding in defining it that way, and this message is starting to resonate with the public."

--Carl Bernstein

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry: 289

Bush: 232

At this point, I don't know which polls to believe. I'm still thinking that this election is a dead heat. Even if that is the case, for an incumbent to be in tie with a challenger is bad news for the incumbent.

A lot of those are based off of Zogby polls. Zogby is using online polling to get his battleground results. That doesn't breed great accuracy when people sign-up online and the only way the data is confirmed is a Zogby rep calling the individual and asking if their information is correct. He's also now begun to address partisan Democratics like he did to the Arizona delegates at the DNC. That's not exactly an independent pollster.

For the AZ delegates address:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/electi...arizona29.html

While Zogby seems to be a couple points more Democratic then other polls taken at the same time, I only have a problem with 2 of the states on that map.

Arizona- a poll using likely voters from 7-12/7-14 showed Bush up 12, while the one that is apparently used in this map is from 7-15/7-17 has Kerry up 1 and does not disclose who the sample is and it has a larger MOE. That is also only the second poll taken in AZ that has showed Kerry up and the previous was 2 pts back in the middle of February. The previous 3 AZ polls had Bush up 12.

Tennessee is not in play.

That puts the map at 268-253 Kerry with both Missouri and Nevada at less then 1% to Kerry and 2 other states that are tied.

Oh well, polls are really worthless until a few weeks after the RNC and the debates are about to begin. At that point any "bounces" from both conventions will have worked themselves out of polling results.

New Poll gives Kerry Lead: Kerry 50, Bush 44, Nader 2

Washington Post-ABC News Poll Shows Voters Favor Kerry 50-44

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2004Aug2.html

http://www.EvolveFISH.com/fish/media/S-ReDefeatBush.jpg

So what? It's still the smallest bump since McGovern.