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-   -   AFC contender stats through 12 games. (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=113211)

Kaylore 12-03-2013 10:36 AM

AFC contender stats through 12 games.
 
We're at the final four game stretch of the season. There are no more BYE weeks. The film is out and there is very little to hide with scheme. The stats are going to give a decent picture of what teams are.

Let's look at some:

Broncos 10-2
Total offense: 1st
Points: 1st
Passing: 1st
Rushing: 13th
Give/Take: -4 (bottom third of the league)

Total Defense: 27th
Points: 26th
Passing: 29th
Rushing: 7th

Two ways to look at this. One is the defense is bad. We give up a lot of points and a lot of passing yards. Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season and the injuries and suspension of Von Miller really did a number on our defense. I also think that we are 10-2 with a -4 turnover ratio speaks to some of this - but not all. Yes, teams have to pass more on us to keep up. Yes, we've had some turnovers. But at the end of the day, we are what we are. I think if we can get that number in the teens - especially the scoring part, we can be good enough to win a championship. But until then, don't hold your breath.

Chiefs
Total offense: 16th
Points: 9th
Passing: 24th
Rushing: 11th
Give/Take: +14 (league best. Next closest in conference is New England at +8)

Total Defense: 21st
Points: 4th
Passing: 21st
Rushing: 21st

How the mighty have fallen. The Chiefs are a wild card team and may only win 1 or 2 more games. I fully expect their final games to even out as they continue to play starting QB's. They have given up 30+ points the last several games. Their special teams and defense has continued to help them inflate what is still a mediocre offense with little talent. The Chiefs are who we thought they were. Their record is indicative of facing bad teams and their turnover margin - remember they were barely beating many of those teams at home.

Patriots

Total offense: 9th
Points: 6th
Passing: 10th
Rushing: 12th
Give/Take: +8 (2nd best in AFC)

Total Defense: 20th
Points: 10th
Passing: 10th
Rushing: 31st

The Patriots were all set up to be one of the most balanced teams going into the playoffs. Then their injuries on defense really set them back. They can't stop the run and have been outscored in the first half of the last few games by 50 points. Still, they are a big threat and are balanced enough to do damage and go all the way in a very weak AFC.

Bengals

Total offense: 12th
Points: 12th
Passing: 11th
Rushing: 18th
Give/Take: +1

Total Defense: 6th
Points: 5th
Passing: 8th
Rushing: 8th

The Bengals losing Atkins was a huge blow - similar to the Patriots losing <s>Wilfork</s> Cottonspork. They do have all the elements to win their division, though with a two game lead and four games to play. They are a very underrated team.

Colts

Total offense: 20th
Points: 12th
Passing: 14th
Rushing: 20th
Give/Take: +6

Total Defense: 22nd
Points: 12th
Passing: 17th
Rushing: 28th

If there's one team that isn't looking so hot it is the Colts. Andrew Luck has leveled off quite a bit. And while still a good player, he hasn't taken the step that other elites do in their second year (Manning, Brady, and even Russel Wilson). Obviously losing Reggie Wayne was a huge part of that. But so was trading for a recently benched Trent Richardson. Still, the Ravens looked similar last year and got hot at the right time. They can beat anyone, but they can also lose to anyone and look like they have lost some of their mojo.

Seahawks

Total offense: 11th
Points: 2nd
Passing: 22nd
Rushing: 3rd
Give/Take: +12

Total Defense: 1st
Points: 2nd
Passing: 1st
Rushing: 13th

I wanted to throw this out there for comparison. The Seahawks are a total juggernaut. Everything is pretty much where you want it. And don't be fooled by Wilson's meager passing yardage. They run the ball a lot because they have a lead and Wilson himself will take off at a moment's notice. He's like a rich man's Jake Plummer. And like Plummer his teammates love him. If we make it to the Super Bowl, it is probably going to be the Seahawks. The only thing that gives me hope is their issues in the secondary and they'll have to play on a neutral field.

I could have put up numbers for the Panthers and Saints as well, but I wanted to focus on probably AFC opponents we will see in the playoffs.

We can get where we need to, but some things need to improve. We need to play better pass defense. DRC coming back will make a HUGE difference. Also we need to really work on turnovers. We've been trying all year but it just isn't happening. If we can get those things up, we have a decent shot to go all the way. Especially if we have home field.

Atwater His Ass 12-03-2013 10:44 AM

Denver needs 3 things to win it: A) Manning on his game and B) give up yards but not points defensive play and lastly C) turnovers.

If Manning is playing out of his mind, he can overcome B and C. But I wouldn't expect that level of play going forward.

Seattle is the team best equipped to handle us, if both teams get that far.

I think a cold SB against a red hot Seahawks team would be very difficult to overcome.

snowspot66 12-03-2013 10:46 AM

Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.

crush17 12-03-2013 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowspot66 (Post 3987604)
Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.

Sweet Baby Jebus.

I knew it was bad, but come on.

Kaylore 12-03-2013 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowspot66 (Post 3987604)
Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.

I totally agree. Unfortunately we've turned the ball over all year long. It's who we are at this point. I hope we can just keep the number down a bit during the playoffs.

2KBack 12-03-2013 10:48 AM

Our Points allowed are at least slightly skewed due to defensive/special teams TD's and those turnovers you mentioned. Denver has given up 10+ points in several games due to turnovers and special teams. Those are far and away the weakness of the team....less so the defense.

SonOfLe-loLang 12-03-2013 10:49 AM

Out of curiosity, whats the broncos D average starting FP this year? It seems we give up a lot of turnovers in our own territory. Like even last week, looking at the box score, you'd assume 28 pts is a lot to give up. But then when you realize 7 were on a kickoff return and another 7 on a very short field, it doesnt look as bad.

Atwater His Ass 12-03-2013 10:52 AM

KC dropping passes left and right made them look better too as well though.
Alex Smith was actually on target on almost every throw.

At least we didn't fumble. Maybe it is the start of a trend.

jmz313 12-03-2013 10:56 AM

The AFC really does seem wide open. Hopefully its the Broncos with the hot hand this year.

KCStud 12-03-2013 10:58 AM

Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.

Beantown Bronco 12-03-2013 10:58 AM

I made a bet after week 3 that the Broncos would end up with a top 20 ranked defense, when Denver was ranked 27th or 28th. It was looking pretty good once Von returned......until halftime of the Pats game. We need a healthy DRC and Co. to have any chance at it.

Man-Goblin 12-03-2013 11:03 AM

The Seahawk stats look similar to the Broncos' last season. Everything pointed toward the Broncos and they had a fairly healthy team going into the playoffs. And they screwed it up. Ugh.

SonOfLe-loLang 12-03-2013 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCStud (Post 3987614)
Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.

Eh, any given sunday. Though they'll be hard to beat at home. On the road they are a diff team.

bronco militia 12-03-2013 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore (Post 3987595)
We're at the final four game stretch of the season. There are no more BYE weeks. The film is out and there is very little to hide with scheme. The stats are going to give a decent picture of what teams are.

Let's look at some:

Broncos 10-2
Total offense: 1st
Points: 1st
Passing: 1st
Rushing: 13th
Give/Take: -4 (bottom third of the league)

Total Defense: 27th
Points: 26th
Passing: 29th
Rushing: 7th

Two ways to look at this. One is the defense is bad. We give up a lot of points and a lot of passing yards. Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season and the injuries and suspension of Von Miller really did a number on our defense. I also think that we are 10-2 with a -4 turnover ratio speaks to some of this - but not all. Yes, teams have to pass more on us to keep up. Yes, we've had some turnovers. But at the end of the day, we are what we are. I think if we can get that number in the teens - especially the scoring part, we can be good enough to win a championship. But until then, don't hold your breath.

.

ugh...before the kc game they were 26th in points and yardage. Unfortunately our best defense is our offense

Kaylore 12-03-2013 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Man-Goblin (Post 3987619)
The Seahawk stats look similar to the Broncos' last season. Everything pointed toward the Broncos and they had a fairly healthy team going into the playoffs. And they screwed it up. Ugh.

And that's the thing. You either get to play the Seahawks or the team that beat the Seahawks in their house - on a neutral field. And the SB is in New York, so it may be frigid cold.

Obviously these are problems we want to have. We'll have to get there first. All of the playoff teams are dangerous. If I had my druthers I'd like to get the Colts here and then have Cincy knock off the Patriots and come here. We'll have to see how it shakes out.

BigPlayShay 12-03-2013 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCStud (Post 3987614)
Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.

People say this type of thing about some team every year in December. The fact of the matter is, only 2 #1 seeds have won the super bowl since re-alignment in 2002. The 2003 Pats, and the 2009 Saints. The only time 2 #1 seeds have met in the Super Bowl since re-alignment is the 2009 Saints & Colts.

TonyR 12-03-2013 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3987623)
On the road they are a diff team.

5-1

Beantown Bronco 12-03-2013 11:15 AM

I stopped playing the matchup game after 2005. Everything seemingly fell into our laps perfectly with Pitt advancing and then.....ugh.

Kaylore 12-03-2013 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyR (Post 3987627)
5-1

That is technically different than 6-0. ;D

SonOfLe-loLang 12-03-2013 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyR (Post 3987627)
5-1

Yeah, barely sneaking by Tennessee, tampa bay, Atl, Texans, Stl. And losing to Indy.

BigPlayShay 12-03-2013 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3987634)
Yeah, barely sneaking by Tennessee, tampa bay, Atl, Texans, Stl. And losing to Indy.

Tennessee and Tampa were @ Seattle.

B-Large 12-03-2013 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atwater His Ass (Post 3987601)
Denver needs 3 things to win it: A) Manning on his game and B) give up yards but not points defensive play and lastly C) turnovers.

If Manning is playing out of his mind, he can overcome B and C. But I wouldn't expect that level of play going forward.

Seattle is the team best equipped to handle us, if both teams get that far.

I think a cold SB against a red hot Seahawks team would be very difficult to overcome.

Is Seattle a really cold, windy snowy place?

SonOfLe-loLang 12-03-2013 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigPlayShay (Post 3987636)
Tennessee and Tampa were @ Seattle.

whoops, apparently i cant read a schedule.

At Tex (win by 3), at Colts (loss), at Cards (good win), at rams (14-9), at Falcons (win by 3), and at Panthers to begin the season (12-7)

not exactly a road powerhouse.

B-Large 12-03-2013 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCStud (Post 3987614)
Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.

This is perfect for the "Dumb **** KC Fans Say on the Mane" thread

B-Large 12-03-2013 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3987634)
Yeah, barely sneaking by Tennessee, tampa bay, Atl, Texans, Stl. And losing to Indy.

So were split with Seattle on losing to Indy, and we lost to the Pats in Foxboro on a freezing night.. something tells me that Seattle would struggle in Fox just like everybody does... except that this "Seattle" place seems to be cold and harsh like NY and New England I guess...


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