The Orange Mane -  a Denver Broncos Fan Community

The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/index.php)
-   Orange Mane Central Discussion (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/forumdisplay.php?f=6)
-   -   Why have our pass D stats sucked this season? (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=112579)

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:03 PM

Why have our pass D stats sucked this season?
 
Last year, we were the #3 pass D in terms of yards, and this year we are dead last. That's a huge drop-off; I'm trying to sort this out logically. The national perception seems to be that our defense is Swiss cheese - is that true, and will it be true moving forward? If so, what got us to this point?
  1. The obvious answer is no/limited Champ or Von. It's hard for me to comprehend that one pass-rusher and one DB can cause a team to drop that much... Hell, the 49ers lost Aldon Smith and they only dropped from 4 last year to 6 this year. I think there's got to be more to the story.
  2. schematics: are we doing anything different? Has anyone noticed anything fundamentally unsound in what we are allowing? Have we tried to be more of a "bend-but-don't-break" style of D, allowing the short stuff but not getting burned over the top (Dallas game obvious exception)? The stats seem to bear that out, seeing how we are pretty damn close to average in td allowed/attempt yet near NFL worst in yards/attempt. JAX game is a good example here - 300 passing yards allowed, 0 passing TD.
  3. small sample size: obviously, the big Dallas game really skewed the stats. If one recognizes that giving up 500 yards is not representative, you gotta believe that this D will improve, right? This is a "regression towards the mean" argument. of course, looking at the league, if we had allowed 200 less yards vs DAL, we'd still be 29th so not sure I buy it.
  4. our offense is so dominant, teams have to move the ball by throwing it, and therefore counting metrics (i.e. total passing yards) aren't a big deal. In theory, that makes offenses one dimensional and should therefore improve our situation - in fact, we are allowing opposing QB's a passer rating of 87.8, damn near NFL average. What's weird here is that this should actually make it easier to run on us - draws, etc. Buy, we hold form allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, 2nd best in the league.
Anyone have any other observations as to what the problem has been?

Los Broncos 10-16-2013 02:12 PM

No pass rush

Kaylore 10-16-2013 02:14 PM

We're missing some guys and haven't been able to build that chemistry. Also losing Dumervil, who applied more consistent pressure than Phillips, was another thing.

I also think teams are playing us differently. We spent a lot of time in base and nickel and built our defense around that all preseason. Given what people know they need to do to keep pace with Star Wars, they are playing us with four and even five wide. Fox mentioned two weeks ago that they were adequately prepared for that in his press conference following the Cowboys game. According to him we need to adjust and realize we are going to get their "two minute offense" possibly the entire game and the coaching staff will need to provide the team with more different looks out of our dime defense to make it more difficult.

Von definitely will help with the pass defense, though.

yerner 10-16-2013 02:19 PM

no doom. no von.

crowebomber 10-16-2013 02:26 PM

It's all Manning's fault.

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Los Broncos (Post 3941402)
No pass rush

last year we had a sack on 8.5% of pass attempts. This year it's 6.3%. Is Von getting a sack every 2% of pass attempts?

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mwill07 (Post 3941409)
last year we had a sack on 8.5% of pass attempts. This year it's 6.3%. Is Von getting a sack every 2% of pass attempts?

just checked that - Von actually got a sack on 3.2% of pass attempts last year. I think it's probably fair to say that Von being back will push us back to one of the elite teams in terms of getting after the QB. It will be interesting to see what happens to our team D pass rankings.

randerson1184 10-16-2013 02:34 PM

No Doom, no Von. Couple that with the fact that teams are having to heave the ball to keep pace with us.

Also, our D has seen 251 passing attempts (2nd most only to Philly). We're 3rd worst in yards per attempt, but I would think that could still be chalked up to us playing prevent D later in most of our games. There's an interesting stat called "Adjusted Yards per Attempt" for which we rank 8th worst in the league. You can find many good #'s here: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/2013/opp.htm

TonyR 10-16-2013 02:37 PM

Good thread. I chose the "missing Von..." option because it's probably (hopefully?) the biggest reason, although probably not the only reason. I'll be interested to see where this discussion goes. A few weeks ago several people (one in particular) in the thread linked below apparently didn't agree with me that there was a problem with the pass D...

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=112256

Rabb 10-16-2013 02:37 PM

We can't fairly say the impact of losing Doom is yet...we haven't seen the full D without him.

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randerson1184 (Post 3941413)
No Doom, no Von. Couple that with the fact that teams are having to heave the ball to keep pace with us.

Also, our D has seen 251 passing attempts (2nd most only to Philly). We're 3rd worst in yards per attempt, but I would think that could still be chalked up to us playing prevent D later in most of our games. There's an interesting stat called "Adjusted Yards per Attempt" for which we rank 8th worst in the league. You can find many good #'s here: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/2013/opp.htm

yup, I've spent most of this afternoon on pfr, trying to find the silver lining. I wanted to chalk it up to lots of yards because of lots of attempts, but like you noted, 3rd worst in yards/attempt isn't good. We were 5th best there last year, and 6th in AY/A.

no matter how you slice it, this pass D is WAY worse than it was last year.

crowebomber 10-16-2013 02:39 PM

If the Broncos focus on stopping the run first, they are basically daring the opponent's quarterback to outplay Manning. Yes, they will get some yardage through the air, but it's just a matter of time before a mistake is made.

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rabb (Post 3941416)
We can't fairly say the impact of losing Doom is yet...we haven't seen the full D without him.

I'm of the assumption (hope) that Dumervil has been adequately replaced with Philips and a maturing Malik Jackson and Wolfe. We'll see though. Run D, which was the knock on Doom, seems to be equally good, so there's that.

Rabb 10-16-2013 02:43 PM

I chose the Von option and scheme because to me, they go hand in hand.

gyldenlove 10-16-2013 02:44 PM

The pass rush has obviously been hampered significantly by losing Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil - even though Ayers, Jackson and Philips have all produced some sacks they haven't been nearly as constantly disruptive as Dumervil and Miller were last year.

Injuries to Woodyard, Ihenacho, Champ, Harris have also hurt.

ColoradoDarin 10-16-2013 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyR (Post 3941415)
Good thread. I chose the "missing Von..." option because it's probably (hopefully?) the biggest reason, although probably not the only reason. I'll be interested to see where this discussion goes. A few weeks ago several people (one in particular) in the thread linked below apparently didn't agree with me that there was a problem with the pass D...

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=112256

Jeez, you are such an Irsay

mwill07 10-16-2013 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gyldenlove (Post 3941422)
...

Injuries to Woodyard, Ihenacho, Champ, Harris have also hurt.

I like to think that, but what if they were healthy? 300 yards (vs 500) in Dallas game? 200 yards (vs 300) in JAX game? That's 300 fewer yards on the season, which would pt us roughly 30th... still pretty terrible.

gyldenlove 10-16-2013 02:55 PM

I think we need to qualify what "sucks" means.

Here is a list of different stats related to team pass defense and our current ranking (1) being best and (32) being worst:

Yards allowed (32)
Yards per game (32)
Attempts per game (30)
Completions per game (29)
Completion % (14)
TDs (T23)
INTs (T2)
Sacks (T9)
Passes defended (T1)

So people pass the ball a lot against us, this makes sense as the offence is scoring lots of points and our run defence is the best in the league. They gains lot of yards on their many pass attempts, but in fact we are in the better half of the league when it comes to forcing incompletions. We are top 10 in the league in large negative plays (sacks and ints), but in fact we have only give up 2 more passing TDs than we have taken away interceptions.

On a side note we are middle of the league in 3rd down conversion rate against and the only team that has not allowed a single 4th down conversion.

The defense looks bad because they give up so many yards on passes, but actually they do a pretty good job of creating big plays, getting off the field on 3rd and 4th downs.

Rabb 10-16-2013 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mwill07 (Post 3941425)
I like to think that, but what if they were healthy? 300 yards (vs 500) in Dallas game? 200 yards (vs 300) in JAX game? That's 300 fewer yards on the season, which would pt us roughly 30th... still pretty terrible.

Does anyone actually care that we gave up 300 yards to the Jags and only gave up 12 points on D?

I mean I understand the philosophical part of the argument, that eventually against a good/decent team it will hurt with points but sometimes yards don't tell the tale.

It's going to be such a different D overall with just a couple key players back. I don't personally think that Dallas debacle will happen again.

Mountain Bronco 10-16-2013 03:03 PM

It isn't one thing or the other. It is a bit of all of it. Teams are going to pass, our run D is solid, we score a ton so teams know they have to. We have missed Von, Champ etc...

NFLBRONCO 10-16-2013 03:03 PM

S play is no better then Playoff loss against Baltimore

Drunken.Broncoholic2 10-16-2013 03:05 PM

QBs will look good when they have 7 seconds to throw.

ColoradoDarin 10-16-2013 03:07 PM

It's been a combination of things.

Our offense has been putting it on teams, so they have to throw to keep up, throw to catch up and throw in garbage time. Just the threat of scoring has made other teams throw more than they would have otherwise when the games were still close in the first half.

Missing Von, Champ, WW, Ayers, Doom not only for the "lesser" players we run out there, but it affects the scheme.

Scheme - we played a lot of man the first few games, but when we had to run out a bunch of scrubs in the middle of the Dallas game, we started playing a soft zone. Missing WW underneath against the slants for Blackmon in the Jags game. We have to bring 5 and 6 players to generate any kind of pressure.

We're missing a lot more tackles this year and that is a bit worrisome, same with the big plays we've given up (mostly the Dallas game, don't know if that's an aberration or product of playing Dez and Romo when he's on).

I'd like to see how we are with Von back, Champ back, and WW healthy going forward.

Drunken.Broncoholic2 10-16-2013 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NFLBRONCO (Post 3941433)
S play is no better then Playoff loss against Baltimore

I can't tell sometimes if it's on the CBs or safeties that screw up some of these coverages. But I'm not seeing this big progression with Moore.

DENVERDUI55 10-16-2013 03:15 PM

Other
1. As mentioned several times in th past the front 7 isn't beating the opposing offensive linemen very consistently. The Defense is forced to blitz to create pressure creating opportunities for the opposing QB to make big plays.

2. This was an option but teams are throwing a lot against Denver do to Peyton being Peyton. This is also why the run D ranks so high. I bet if I cared to look up the stats Denver is near the tops in Pass thrown against and least amount of rushes against.

3. There has been some shoddy safety play.

4. I haven't heard this one much but I feel like the Defense gets lazy with Peyton playing QB and when playing with big leads. It seems pretty easy to lose focus when your like eh the O will score 45 pts.


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:40 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.