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-   -   The Best of Times, or The Worst of Times? (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=111013)

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 09:51 AM

The Best of Times, or The Worst of Times?
 
This argument was taking place over on the Syria thread, so I thought I would move it over here:

Whatever time you want to argue that the zenith of America occurred, I would have to argue that our best years are behind us. And that goes for the entire world, not just America. IMO, the well being of humanity is directly tied to it's population, which determines the availability (and cost) of the basic necessities of life. At 7 billion, we have reached the breaking point. Already, we can see that the most advanced countries in the world can no longer cope with the societal pressures of their populations. Countries, including the U.S., are buckling under the economic pressures of caring for aging populations. You can't provide health care to that many people. You can't create enough jobs for the generations that follow. The impacts on the environment of food production on steroids is unsustainable and the oceans are crashing under the human burden. A report came out the other day that enormous amounts of sea life, enmasse, are migrating away from the Equator as the oceans heat up. Those that can't migrate are dying.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1107161959.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...42e_story.html

How many millions in the Tropics rely on that protein source? The effects of advancing climate change, hand in hand with concurrent water shortages, have already led to some political upheavals, like in North Africa. Meanwhile, at this critical phase in civilization, the uber-rich have figured out a way to remove much of their assets from the world economy, to the tune of $32 trillion dollars. Every man for himself, eh? Or maybe they're just smart enough to look down the road a bit?

What do you think it will be like in 2050 when there are 9 billion of us? We're headed for an inevitable crash, IMHO.

Not only that, but the least developed countries are leading the world in population growth. In other words, those countries already unable to deal with their current populations are the ones producing the most new people, and that is the recipe for disaster. http://www.prb.org/Publications/Data...opulation.aspx

Those people are going to have to go somewhere to find something to eat and drink.

This is one of the key reasons we need to fight back against the Right Wing revolution taking place in America. When the **** hits the fan, they will undoubtedly morph into a nationalist, fascist movement. IMO, there are signs of that already happening. The Nazis started out as a "fringe" movement too. The chaos of post-WWI Europe provided them with a path to power.

Meanwhile, on the so-called Left which I suppose Obama represents (and who I would argue isn't "left" at all) they seem to be relying more and more on the power of the state. The Left Wing tyrant is not any better than the Right Wing tyrant, IMO. Perhaps both "wings" find some comfort in the idea of a law and order police state that their faction controls? It's an easy abyss to fall into when chaos hits.

The U.S. government is already failing under the pressures of its current load of problems. It has become entirely dysfunctional, as a matter of fact. They couldn't agree on a resolution to make it National Pineapple Day in honor of Hawaii. So what happens as those pressures are incrementally ramped up, year after year? More storms, and much worse ones? More chaos abroad as regimes fall and vital resources are threatened? More crashing food supplies like the one in Pakistan that set off the Arab Spring?

Here's who we get most of our crude oil from, in order:
CANADA
SAUDI ARABIA
MEXICO
VENEZUELA
NIGERIA
IRAQ
ANGOLA
ALGERIA

Other than Canada, not a picture of stability. The Sauds hold their position intact by the use of dictatorial police powers. We all know how long that kind of **** lasts.

Anyway, I don't see how anybody can argue that our best days are still ahead. Doesn't make any sense.

Or is it just the irrational belief that technology will bail us out?

baja 05-19-2013 10:13 AM

Only a quantum leap in consciousness will shift out quality of life. In order to make way for an entirely new human perception the old ways of living in the world must die away and that will not happen voluntarily. It is that death we are in the throes of now.

How or if we will emerge as a species remains to be seen. To survive we must realize we are all One thing and live accordingly.

The problem is we are all sleep walkers.

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 10:29 AM

And on top of that, it seems to me that what technology does, by its very nature, is create fewer jobs. Technology makes it possible for fewer people to do more work. Not a good match for a growing population.

underrated29 05-19-2013 10:37 AM

War. War is and always been out species equalizer. Lemmings run off cliffs. Some animals give birth to 1 pup a year. Humans kill each other.

When it has truly reached its breaking point there will be a big war and our numbers will reset. Likely at or near the same time of some disease outbreak.

baja 05-19-2013 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849541)
And on top of that, it seems to me that what technology does, by its very nature, is create fewer jobs. Technology makes it possible for fewer people to do more work. Not a good match for a growing population.

FACTOR IN ROBOTICS advancements and very soon we the people become "useless eater" to the power elite. What do you think they will do about the fact over population is arguably going to make life on earth unsustainable for most species ?

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 10:52 AM

Another factor: The First World countries are going to have to close down immigration if they hope to survive. It's no longer a question of a melting pot. Look what's happening in Europe? They are being drowned by immigration. Their cultures are getting pushed aside. Islamists in Copenhagen have launched a campaign to create Sharia Law Zones in the city. France and Germany are forced to deal with an enormous Muslim population that not only doesn't believe in the cultural foundations of Western Civilization, including democracy, but wants to do away with them. Imagine in twenty years when their numbers have doubled, or tripled? Countries will fall from within and get taken over.

Will the cultural values of those who breed the fastest win?

W*GS 05-19-2013 11:01 AM

A real orgy of doom you got going here.

cutthemdown 05-19-2013 11:07 AM

The Zenith for America is always in the future.

baja 05-19-2013 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cutthemdown (Post 3849549)
The Zenith for America is always in the future.

That was what the Romans said about Rome

The Lone Bolt 05-19-2013 11:30 AM

My aren't you just a little ray of sunshine Ro? :sunshine:

I'd argue just the opposite is coming. The Singularity is Near. Read it.

And the USA is poised to become the world's biggest exporter of oil before 2020.

houghtam 05-19-2013 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cutthemdown (Post 3849549)
The Zenith for humanity is always in the future.

FYP.

The future for humanity has never, nor will ever be about national origin. Faced with overpopulation, eventually borders will dissolve or be overrun. Never underestimate the power/inertia large numbers of starving animals can create.

But we can talk about pandemics, famine, nuclear war...evolutionarily speaking, the human race will survive nearly every attempt to extinguish it. Only an event which literally makes the world uninhabitable will exterminate the human race.

Anything else will "only" create a massive loss in population to the point where the population can once again sustain itself, whether that be a few thousand, million or billion people. So what we are really concerned about here is, in the end, quality of life. That will surely disappear within the next 100 years unless a huge leap forward is made. But after that, the race will slowly rebuild, learning (or evolving) from its mistakes, and surviving like it has for millennia.

The Lone Bolt 05-19-2013 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849541)
And on top of that, it seems to me that what technology does, by its very nature, is create fewer jobs. Technology makes it possible for fewer people to do more work. Not a good match for a growing population.

Ro, machines have been replacing human beings for over a hundred years now. It doesn't seem to have had an significant (or any) effect on employment.

baja 05-19-2013 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lone Bolt (Post 3849566)
Ro, machines have been replacing human beings for over a hundred years now. It doesn't seem to have had an significant (or any) effect on employment.

What was the global population 100 years ago?

Try apples to apples

The Lone Bolt 05-19-2013 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja (Post 3849571)
What was the global population 100 years ago?

Try apples to apples

Ro's theory is that as machines replace people in jobs more people, in terms of a percentage of the workforce, should be permanently unemployed. That should hold true no matter what the population of the workforce is.

baja 05-19-2013 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lone Bolt (Post 3849587)
Ro's theory is that as machines replace people in jobs more people, in terms of a percentage of the workforce, should be permanently unemployed. That should hold true no matter what the population of the workforce is.

resources are the same planet size is the same. We have gone from 1 billion people in 1900 to 7 billion, things are not the same relative to the asset we all live off of.

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lone Bolt (Post 3849587)
Ro's theory is that as machines replace people in jobs more people, in terms of a percentage of the workforce, should be permanently unemployed. That should hold true no matter what the population of the workforce is.

And I think it will in the future. Technology will replace workers while workers produce more workers. Do the algebra.

Here's another problem: Can economies grow infinitely on a planet of finite resources?

Right now it takes thousands of workers to build the millions of IPhones that Apple can sell. Let's say robotics can replace those workers in a few years and build even more phones, cheaper - plus they never need time off? What happens in SE Asia? China?

The whole point is that humans have created modern civilization based on principles that are unsustainable. Will there come a point in time when we can't innovate our way out of the problems we have created? Judging by what is happening in the natural world, I'd say we're on that threshhold.

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W*GS (Post 3849547)
A real orgy of doom you got going here.

I think when you look at what is actually taking place in the world, stripped of any kind of bull****, the outlook is not good. I don't see any obvious fixes. Do you?

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lone Bolt (Post 3849553)
My aren't you just a little ray of sunshine Ro? :sunshine:

I'd argue just the opposite is coming. The Singularity is Near. Read it.

And the USA is poised to become the world's biggest exporter of oil before 2020.

I think the first decision any superintelligence would make would be to exterminate mankind. ;D

Pumping carbon into the atmosphere is creating some of our biggest problems. Why would we choose to keep doing that?

baja 05-19-2013 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849606)
I think when you look at what is actually taking place in the world, stripped of any kind of bull****, the outlook is not good. I don't see any obvious fixes. Do you?

Dude tax carbon emissions are we are good to go...

Rohirrim 05-19-2013 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja (Post 3849610)
Dude tax carbon emissions are we are good to go...

That might be a good economic lever for moving people toward inventing more sustainable, and healthier, energy alternatives. Wouldn't do anything for the population, though.

baja 05-19-2013 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849613)
That might be a good economic lever for moving people toward inventing more sustainable, and healthier, energy alternatives. Wouldn't do anything for the population, though.



I was being facetious. That was meant to mimic Wags solution which of course will only serve to be the spring board to global domination

The Lone Bolt 05-19-2013 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849599)
And I think it will in the future. Technology will replace workers while workers produce more workers. Do the algebra.

Here's another problem: Can economies grow infinitely on a planet of finite resources?

Right now it takes thousands of workers to build the millions of IPhones that Apple can sell. Let's say robotics can replace those workers in a few years and build even more phones, cheaper - plus they never need time off? What happens in SE Asia? China?

The whole point is that humans have created modern civilization based on principles that are unsustainable. Will there come a point in time when we can't innovate our way out of the problems we have created? Judging by what is happening in the natural world, I'd say we're on that threshhold.

Well I'd argue that as robots take over manual labor positions jobs will open up in other areas. It's simple economics. Robots make products cheaper to produce which makes them cheaper to buy which benefits consumers. With more money they spend it on other things which creates jobs in other areas of the economy.

I mean, if your outlook was accurate then we should have never invented the cotton gin. After all, think about all the people thrown of work who picked out cotton seeds by hand. Surely those people never found work elsewhere right?

W*GS 05-19-2013 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja (Post 3849614)
I was being facetious. That was meant to mimic Wags solution which of course will only serve to be the spring board to global domination

Reptilians endorse a carbon tax?

Do you have a heretofore secret communiqué from them to that effect?

W*GS 05-19-2013 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3849606)
I think when you look at what is actually taking place in the world, stripped of any kind of bull****, the outlook is not good. I don't see any obvious fixes. Do you?

Not easy fixes, true. One of the races is between our population growth and the treatment of women. Another is between our energy needs and fossil fuels and the problems they cause.

I'm not quite ready to write off Homo sapiens just yet.

baja 05-19-2013 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W*GS (Post 3849626)
Reptilians endorse a carbon tax?

Do you have a heretofore secret communiqué from them to that effect?

Oh I get it.... You think you are funny¿¿


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