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Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-29-2013 01:37 AM

2013 Mock Draft Game Final Scores
 
All the calculations and number crunching can be found in this thread:

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthr...29#post3840229


SCORING

Total Franchise Value (TFV) consists of:

1. Real NFL Draft Accuracy
2. Inherent Selection Value
3. Raw(Actual) Selection Value
4. Free Agency Value


REAL NFL DRAFT ACCURACY

As the name suggests, each selection is compared to the real NFL draft results to see where the player's true draft value was. The criteria is arbitrary, but both extremely fair and quite simple:

Selections 1-25, can be up to 5 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 26-75, can be up to 10 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 75-150, can be up to 15 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 151+, can be up to 20 draft slots off to receive positive value.

The thinking obviously being that it's easier to identify the better talents in the draft and thus the penalty range for missing on those easier to identify talents is greater. Towards the end of the draft, you can be off by a half round and still get credit for a value selection, the talent is much harder to identify and grade. For this, earlier selections have more value because they are easier to accurately forecast, which keeps GMs from wanting to just trade down and always stockpile.

Each individual selection is checked and marked red if it fails to be an accurate value. These red selections are not counted in the number tally for the Inherent Selection Value. The last 20 selections in the 7th Round are at a disadvantage. If the player is not selected by the end of the NFL draft, the selection is considered inaccurate for bonus point consideration, though for the draft accuracy rankings, those inaccurate selections are just omitted altogether, meaning your accuracy percentage will be based on all your other selections. This is for a seperate Top 32 ranking based solely on Draft Value Accuracy. It is not the listing of whom won the game, but it is the listing of the top GMs in terms of accurately forecasting player draft value.



INHERENT SELECTION VALUE

For purposes of a game like this in which trading is a key factor, you have to maintain equal opportunity between stock piling mid/late round selections versus a limited number of earlier selections. In short, the 1st Overall selection must have some inherent value to make it just as enticing as trading back for multiple selections, or else everyone would always trade. Thus, we have Inherent Selection Value. This is the chart:

Code:

1st Round        1-10, 11-20, 21-32        100, 90, 80
2nd Round        33-42, 43-52, 53-64        75, 70, 65
3rd Round        65-74, 75-84, 85-97        60, 55, 50
4th Round        98-115, 116-133            45, 40
5th Round        134-150, 151-168          35, 30
6th Round        169-187, 188-206          25, 20
7th Round        207-230, 231-254          15, 10

This is not a trade value chart, this is an inherent value chart for purposes of grading this game. As you can see, a Top 10 selection has an inherent value of +100 points. Simply selecting a player that is within the quality draft range nets the GM the 100 points. If you use poor draft value, and draft someone that really gets selected at pick #20, you do not get the 100 points. Thus, since it is easier to predict within 5 draft slots the #1 Overall selection, it's almost a guaranteed 100 point value. As opposed to trading back for multiple 2nd round selections, where the inherent value is only 65-75 points, but you have to accurately draft a player within 10 selections, so that's much harder to do. To win the game, you need the most points.

Thus, a cocky GM might feel comfortable trading the sure thing early selection for more later selections because if he drafts accurately on all of those picks, he has a good chance to earn more points than he would staying at #1 Overall. But there's a lot of risk, and as this game shows, those with the most picks did not always fare the best. So, by using inherent values, the integrity and desireabilty of early round selections are maintained, while the desire to just trade back and accumulate a massive amount of selections is checked.

As mentioned earlier, the final 20 selections in the 7th Round, if the player is not picked in the real NFL draft, receive no inherent value points. It just makes these last few selections even less attractive, though if you still nail a sleeper, it's big points.


RAW (ACTUAL) SELECTION VALUE

This is easy, it's simply the difference, positive or negative, for each selection between where they were drafted in the Mock Draft and where they were drafted in the real NFL draft. And then all those values are added together for a score.

This is also why Inherent values were needed as a great selection at #1 Overall that really went #1 Overall would get you zero points. You wouldn't lose any, you wouldn't gain any. But with the inherent value, now you would get 100 points and the selection has great value again.

Thus, Raw Value is really a measure of reaches and steals. Inherent Value is what rewards draft accuracy. Together I think they measure a GM's competency in the draft game.


FREE AGENCY VALUE

This is like extra credit after an exam. If you win a bid on a player in Free Agency and he gets drafted, you get points. Specifically, since this draft had 254 selections, all Free Agents are assigned #255. Thus, if a Free Agent in our game was actually drafted at #200 in the NFL draft, you would get 55 points added to your score (255-200 = 55). This year, we had 29 Free Agents that actually were drafted by the NFL. That's a lot of bonus points. If you want to win this game, you'd probably better participate in the Free Agency Round next year.




2013 ORANGE MANE MOCK DRAFT FINAL RESULTS:

Code:

TOTAL FRANCHISE VALUE RESULTS
 
1.    +657    Cleveland          Drunken.Broncoholic
2.    +579    Kansas City        Conklin
3.    +487    Tennessee          Lycan
4.    +460    Cincinnati        Requiem/MUG
5.    +423    Miami              Phibacka31/SouthStndJunkie
6.    +386    Indianapolis      Mediator12
7.    +345    Philadelphia      Arkie
8.    +344    St. Louis          Rohirrim
9.    +308    Minnesota          jebures
10.  +292    New Orleans        Drek
11.  +291    Detroit            DBroncos4life
12.  +240    Green Bay          srphoenix
13.  +214    Arizona            TheReverend
14.  +211    Houston            24champ/Requiem
15.  +205    NY Giants          BroncoMan4ever
16.  +183    New England        eddie mac
17.  +169    Tampa Bay          Traveler
18.  +76    Oakland            CBF1
19.  +63    Jacksonville      ColoradoBuff
20.  +43    Carolina          BroncoInferno
21.  +26    Baltimore          Bmore Manning
22.  - 3    Dallas            NickStixx
23.  -16    Chicago            SoDak Bronco
24.  -31    NY Jets            MrPeepers
25.  -37    San Diego          JCMElway
26.  -42    Pittsburgh        BowlenBall
27.  -109    Buffalo            BroncosfanGuy
28.  -162    Seattle            socalorado
29.  -175    Atlanta            ludo21
30.  -203    Washington        Shananahan
31.  -205    Denver            GoHAM/schaaf
32.  -274    San Francisco      DENVERDUI55


Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-29-2013 01:37 AM

Just for fun, this is a ranking of the best drafting GMs based solely on draft value. And again, the last 20 selections in the 7th Round were omitted completely unless they were value picks.


Code:

Top 25 5 off
26-75 10 off
75-150 15 off
150+ 20 off

                          ValueSelections/TotalSelections/Omitted Late 7ths
1.          100%        Cleveland                6/6
1.        100%        Kansas City                6/6
3.          80%        Green Bay                4/5, 2
3.          80%        New England                4/5, 1
5.          75%        Miami                        6/8, 1
6.          71%        Cincinnati                5/7, 2
6.          71%          New Orleans                5/7
8.          67%        Indianapolis                4/6, 1
8.          67%        St. Louis                6/9
8.          67%        Tennessee                6/9, 1
11.          64%        Baltimore                7/11,1
12.          60%        Tampa Bay                3/5
13.          57%        Arizona                        4/7               
14.          56%        Houston                        5/9
15.          55%        Philadelphia                6/11
16.          50%        Detroit                        5/10
16.          50%        NY Giants                3/6, 1
18.          45%        Minnesota                5/11
18.          45%        San Diego                5/11
18.          45%        San Francisco                5/11,2
21.          43%        Jacksonville                3/7
22.          40%        Buffalo                        2/5
22.          40%        Carolina                2/5
22.          40%        Chicago                        2/5
22.          40%        Pittsburgh                4/10
26.          38%        Oakland                        3/8
27.          33%        Dallas                        2/6
27.          33%        Denver                        2/6
27.          33%        Washington                2/6
30.          29%        NY Jets                        2/7
30.          29%        Seattle                        2/7, 2
32.          17%        Atlanta                          1/6, 2

Most Value Selections                Baltimore        7
Least Value Selections                Atlanta                1


Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-29-2013 01:39 AM

These are the Free Agent Winners. The other teams either did not participate, or more likely, none of their Free Agents were drafted.

Code:

FREE AGENT VALUES

ARIZONA                        + 99                                       
Tanner Hawkinson        + 99

CINCINNATI                +112
Jeff Locke                +100
Kamel Ishmael                + 12

CLEVELAND              +125
Kyle Juszczyk          +125

DENVER                        + 49
Armonty Bryant                + 38
Zeke Motta                + 11

DETROIT                        + 77
William Campbell        + 77

INDIANAPOLIS                +227
Edmund Kugbila                +147
Jamoris Slaughter        + 80

KANSAS CITY                + 96
Theo Riddick                + 56
Tommy Bohanon                + 40

MIAMI                        + 30
Eric Herman                + 30

MINNESOTA                +304
Luke Wilson                + 97
Latavius Murray                + 74
Rufus Johnson                + 72
Brice Butler                + 46
Brandon Helpburn        + 10
Don Jones                +  5

NY GIANTS                + 61
Spencer Ware                + 61

OAKLAND                        + 77
Demetrius McCray        + 45
Nick Williams                + 32

PHILADELPHIA                +189
Quinton Dial                + 98
Kapron Lewis-Moore        + 55
DC Jefferson                + 36

ST. LOUIS                + 53
Khalid Wooton                + 53

TAMPA BAY                + 95
Ryan Griffin                + 54
Travis Bond                + 41

TENNESSEE                +175
Levine Toilolo                +122
Charles Johnson                + 39
Jared Smith                + 14

Best Free Agent Selector:        Minnesota
Biggest Free Agent Steal:        Indianapolis (Edmund Kugbila)


Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-29-2013 01:53 AM

These are what the results would have been with no Free Agent round. It's a fun and important part of the game, so everyone should make sure to participate next year and be really strategic with your bids. As you can see, teams that had strong UDFA selections really jumped up the rankings (i.e. Minnesota and Indianapolis).



Code:

FRANCHISE VALUE DRAFT ONLY

1.        +532        Cleveland
2.        +483        Kansas City
3.        +393        Miami
4.        +348        Cincinnati
5.        +312        Tennessee
6.        +292        New Orleans
7.        +291        St. Louis
8.        +240        Green Bay
9.        +214        Detroit
10.        +211        Houston
11.        +183        New England
12.        +159        Indianapolis
13.        +156        Philadelphia
14.        +144        NY Giants
15.        +115        Arizona
16.        +74        Tampa Bay
17.        +63        Jacksonville
18.        +43        Carolina
19.        +26        Baltimore
20.        +4        Minnesota
21.        -1        Oakland
22.        -3        Dallas
23.        -16        Chicago
24.        -31        NY Jets
25.        -37        San Diego
26.        -42        Pittsburgh
27.        -109        Buffalo
28.        -162        Seattle
29.        -175        Atlanta
30.        -203        Washington
31.        -254        Denver
32.        -274        San Francisco


04-29-2013 05:09 AM

Let's take Tyler Bray out of mine and see those numbers..

BowlenBall 04-29-2013 05:26 AM

No matter how you slice it, I sucked this year. Congratulations to Drunken.Broncoholic on being the King of Mock, 2013!

Great work, MUG -- nice to have you on board this year!

04-29-2013 06:49 AM

Well let's see how the players pan out, before we announce a dynamite GM..

Rohirrim 04-29-2013 07:12 AM

Looks like DB cleaned everybody's clock. ;D

Thank to MUG for all your hard work. I look forward to next year's draft.

04-29-2013 08:45 AM

Ill take it!!

Thanks for crunching the numbers MUG. I think we're all grateful for the time and effort going into all this info/results.

Mediator12 04-29-2013 09:56 AM

I am stunned I came in sixth after watching Jesse Williams free fall. I am wondering what I would have looked like taking Hayden. I just wanted to pick him later since I thought NO ONE was going to take a chance on him due to the heart medical. I thought I could get a solid CB later with huge talent upside, let alone true value.

Oh well, Jesse made this draft almost unbearable for me this weekend. Glad its over and time to move on.

Lycan 04-29-2013 10:04 AM

Huh, I did pretty well even with Werner and Jenkins falling further than I thought they would.

I was amazed Toilolo was available in the UDFA round here. People forgot about him.

Rohirrim 04-29-2013 10:21 AM

Frankly speaking, I think I did better for the Rams than their FO did. I think Ogletree is going to bite them on the ass. Fisher keeps playing Russian Roulette with these bad actors. One of them is going to blow up in his face. I think it will be Ogletree. Tavon Austin is a huge roll of the dice, IMO. How many really fast, small guys have come and gone in this league? I like TJ McDonald, but I think he's an old school, head smashing safety who will draw lots of laundry in the modern NFL. Barrett Jones is a good pick IF he can get healthy, but beside getting Jake Long in a trade (and pissing off Saffold - who is already saying he won't move to RT and wants a trade), they did nothing much to improve protection for Bradford.

04-29-2013 02:12 PM

The true winners won't be uneveiled until a few years after we've seen these players play. Was interesting to go back in the past years of OM drafts and seeing who drafted players that failed/succeeded

Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-29-2013 04:06 PM

This is just an attempt to show "winners" for the draft game in terms of actual NFL draft value. We can absolutely have winners at that right now since all the results are in.

Now, in terms of which players turn out to be great and all that, I'm definitely not trying to grade or predict that because it's impossible. And that's a whole different set of bragging rights. You best believe I'm pulling for Eric Martin to light up Saints camp.

My goal here was to come up with a grading system that rewards draftniks for scouting players and then accurately placing that value within the confines of the NFL draft, which is extremely hard to do. I'm very impressed by the top GMs. Regardless of score though, I thought everyone put forth a great effort. Especially those that participted all the way through UDFA.

04-29-2013 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan (Post 3840770)
This is just an attempt to show "winners" for the draft game in terms of actual NFL draft value. We can absolutely have winners at that right now since all the results are in.

Now, in terms of which players turn out to be great and all that, I'm definitely not trying to grade or predict that because it's impossible. And that's a whole different set of bragging rights. You best believe I'm pulling for Eric Martin to light up Saints camp.

My goal here was to come up with a grading system that rewards draftniks for scouting players and then accurately placing that value within the confines of the NFL draft, which is extremely hard to do. I'm very impressed by the top GMs. Regardless of score though, I thought everyone put forth a great effort. Especially those that participted all the way through UDFA.


Yep I agree with you. Reached your goal and did a great job at it too

GoHAM 04-30-2013 11:01 AM

MUG thanks for posting these scores so everyone can see how awful me and my co-gm did. :o

-325 on two players!

I don't think too many people thought that Kevin Reddick (90) would go undrafted or that Jordan Poyer (58th) would take Kayvon Webster's spot in the 7th round.

Nice work though MUG that was a lot of work.

I can't wait until next year to hopefully redeem my GM skills.

DBroncos4life 04-30-2013 11:21 AM

Mug did you see how many people got picks right for the team they were selecting for? I know Jones went to the Steelers and I got Taylor right for the Lions. Did you see any others?

Mediator12 04-30-2013 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBroncos4life (Post 3841290)
Mug did you see how many people got picks right for the team they were selecting for? I know Jones went to the Steelers and I got Taylor right for the Lions. Did you see any others?

I am just happy I got 2 UDFA's right for INDY at this point.

Lanear Sampson and Emmett Cleary went to INDY. I took Cleary as MR. Irrelevant though so I was off by a pick there ;D

DBroncos4life 04-30-2013 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mediator12 (Post 3841301)
I am just happy I got 2 UDFA's right for INDY at this point.

Lanear Sampson and Emmett Cleary went to INDY. I took Cleary as MR. Irrelevant though so I was off by a pick there ;D

I just started checking where my UDFA's went.

Oscar Johnson, OT, LA Tech Titans
William Campbell, DT, Michigan Drafted to Jets
Glenn Foster, DT, Illinois
Baker Steinkuhler, DT, Nebraska
Jordan Campbell, OLB, New Mexico Highlands Bengals
Ben Cotton, TE, Nebraska Chargers
Orwin Smith, RB, Georgia Tech Bucs
Chad Bumphis, WR, Miss St. Phins

The Jets are moving Campbell to the OL. I know he was a 5 star player coming out of HS. That was the exact plan I had with Steinkuhler. He was a 5 star OL guy coming out of HS as well. Only two left unsigned for me, not too bad.

Mat'hir Uth Gan 04-30-2013 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBroncos4life (Post 3841290)
Mug did you see how many people got picks right for the team they were selecting for? I know Jones went to the Steelers and I got Taylor right for the Lions. Did you see any others?

I didn't look at that at all. That would be interesting to see. If I get some free time in the next day or two, I'll check into it unless someone else does it first (hint, hint).

DBroncos4life 04-30-2013 12:32 PM

Drunken.Broncoholic Selected Barkevious Mingo and Leon McFadden both really selected by the Browns.

Rohirrim 02-06-2014 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3840439)
Frankly speaking, I think I did better for the Rams than their FO did. I think Ogletree is going to bite them on the ass. Fisher keeps playing Russian Roulette with these bad actors. One of them is going to blow up in his face. I think it will be Ogletree. Tavon Austin is a huge roll of the dice, IMO. How many really fast, small guys have come and gone in this league? I like TJ McDonald, but I think he's an old school, head smashing safety who will draw lots of laundry in the modern NFL. Barrett Jones is a good pick IF he can get healthy, but beside getting Jake Long in a trade (and pissing off Saffold - who is already saying he won't move to RT and wants a trade), they did nothing much to improve protection for Bradford.

Wow! :rofl:

Arkie 02-07-2014 05:35 AM

congrats to the all-rookies http://www.wsgaonline.org/forums/sty...t/congrats.gif



Quarterback
3-21 (83): Minnesota (jebures)-Mike Glennon, QB, NC State

Running back
2-15 (45): San Diego (JCMElway)-Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
3-24 (86): Cincinnati (Requiem)-Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina

Wide Receiver
1-22 (22): NY Giants (BroncoMan4ever)-Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
1-09 (09): NY Jets (MrPeepers)-Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Tight End
4-11 (108): Carolina (BroncoInferno)-Jordan Reed, TE, Florida

Offensive Tackle
1-16 (16): St. Louis (Rohirrim)-D.J. Fluker, RT, Alabama
3-08 (70): Tennessee (Lycan)-Justin Pugh, OT/OG, Syracuse

Offensive Guard
2-13 (44): Carolina (BroncoInferno)-Larry Warford, G, Kentucky
2-27 (57): Houston (24champ)-Kyle Long, OT/OG, Oregon

Center
2-17 (47): Dallas (NickStixx)-Travis Frederick, OC, Wisconsin

Defensive end
1-19 (19): Kansas City (Conklin) -Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
1-08 (08): Buffalo (BroncosfanGuy)-Ezekiel Ansah, OLB, BYU

Defensive Tackle
1-14 (14): Carolina (BroncoInferno)-Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
1-28 (28): Denver (GoHAM/schaaf)-Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Inside Linebacker
4-13 (110): NY Giants (BroncoMan4ever)-Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon

Outside Linebacker
3-13 (75): New Orleans (Drek)-Sio Moore, OLB, UConn
3-11 (73): Tampa Bay (Traveler)-Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Mississippi

Safety
1-26 (26): Green Bay (srphoenix)-Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
2-12 (43): Tampa Bay (Traveler)-Eric Reid, FS, LSU
6-22 (190): San Diego (JCMElway)-Robert Lester, S, Alabama

Cornerback
1-17 (17): New Orleans (Drek)-Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
2-23 (53): Detroit (DBroncos4life)-Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

24champ 02-07-2014 09:54 AM

Top ten overall draft. I'll take it.


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