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-   -   30 seconds left in 4th. Knee or go for it? (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=109854)

Bronco Yoda 01-14-2013 01:56 PM

30 seconds left in 4th. Knee or go for it?
 
So fox says he'd do it the same 10 out of 10 times. Who else agrees with him?

01-14-2013 02:01 PM

Play to win. Always.

KevinJames 01-14-2013 02:03 PM

kneel it especially with the new OT rules. You play for OT if you got a good D and good O.

FireFly 01-14-2013 02:08 PM

I've thought this all year! I don't even see the benefit of taking a knee 30 seconds before half time!?

You have the ball, you have time (+time outs) - why wouldn't you!? You're just going to have to fight for the ball later anyhow!

Smiling Assassin27 01-14-2013 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda (Post 3781420)
So fox says he'd do it the same 10 out of 10 times. Who else agrees with him?

I agree that HE'D do it 10 out of 10 times...lol

I think you gotta open up some, even get it to the 40 or so and let Osweiler chuck one into the endzone at worst. But if you can get 30-40 yards with your timeouts, at least give prater a shot at kicking a long one. Granted, he'd be kicking a block of ice, but i'd try it. ravens had no timeouts left, so they couldnt stop the clock anyway.

2KBack 01-14-2013 02:16 PM

Fake kneel down to pass

oubronco 01-14-2013 02:31 PM

You play to win the game

TheChamp24 01-14-2013 02:35 PM

This, I didn't understand at all, and made me feel like we completely had no faith in the offense to a point.
30 seconds, you have 2 timeouts. Say need 45 yards at a shot at a field goal attempt that is makeable.
It just screamed, we can't throw it down the field, and we're scared of turning the ball over, so we'll hope to win in OT.

edog24 01-14-2013 03:14 PM

I'm sorry, but if our HC says he would do this again 10/10 times then he is either a) stubborn to the point of being stupid or b) just plain stupid. If it's (b) then he should be looking for work today.

What is there to gain by kneeling it? It's not it's Tebow back there, you have PFM for god's sake!

01-14-2013 03:25 PM

Depends on the team.

If you're the Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, or Falcons, you go for it and try to get another score any which way you can.

If you're the Broncos, you don't, and take a knee.

End of story.

titan 01-14-2013 03:38 PM

I was at the game and I can understand running it on 3rd and 7 to take time off the clock, but I don't understand taking a knee with 30 seconds to go, with a hall of fame qb on your side. 10 times out of 10 - bad call. You play to win.

broncocalijohn 01-14-2013 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2KBack (Post 3781437)
Fake kneel down to pass

Thank you Bernie Kosar.

spdirty 01-14-2013 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armchair Bronco (Post 3781500)
Depends on the team.

If you're the Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, or Falcons, you go for it and try to get another score any which way you can.

If you're the Broncos, you don't, and take a knee.

End of story.

Because your in shock. And this isn't a football game anymore where you have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, as well as a top 10 wideout. It's now turned into a prize fight where you got dinged and just want to tuck tail and run and hide until the bell rings.

John Fox will never win a Super Bowl.

Bronco Yoda 01-14-2013 09:11 PM

I bet you guys in the stands were in disbelief. At the time I rewinding the tv to see if I actually saw what I thought I had seen.

Dr. Broncenstein 01-14-2013 09:17 PM

That was the point in the game when I knew for sure we were going to lose. B!tch move.

Crushaholic 01-14-2013 09:18 PM

The way our defense was playing, I thought OT was a tricky proposition (and, it turned out to be just that). There had to be some plays that could have placed us in field goal range. I had a feeling that we were going to lose, at that exact moment. Forget the Rahim Moore flub. We STILL could have actually WON THE GAME in regulation...

01-14-2013 09:22 PM

Kneel it. Prater had a real strong headwind coming from that direction in his face and he had also proven that he tries to make contact with the football a half yard behind it.

Bronco Yoda 01-14-2013 09:27 PM

Watching the game again it was apparent that they were not preparing for anything other than kneeling. I missed it the fist time but they were showing shots of PFM just standing there in his cap while the extra point was being made. Not huddled up or going over plays. They were caught with their pants down and weren't prepared to do squat.

Bronco Yoda 01-14-2013 09:28 PM

getting awful close to that magical 97.2 mark.

RaiderH8r 01-14-2013 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crushaholic (Post 3781785)
The way our defense was playing, I thought OT was a tricky proposition (and, it turned out to be just that). There had to be some plays that could have placed us in field goal range. I had a feeling that we were going to lose, at that exact moment. Forget the Rahim Moore flub. We STILL could have actually WON THE GAME in regulation...

Exactly. If our defense had been playing worth a **** the game would haven already been out of reach. Kneeling just told me we were going to lose. Harbaugh had to have been relieved when Manning didn't go no huddle with two timeouts to win it. Time outs mean we can throw anywhere on the field. DT can turn any p,ay into a 30 yard gain or more and Stoke and Decker can chew up 15 yds per pass on comeback routes. Why hire the $96 million man to watch him hand it off and cry uncle going into OT?

01-14-2013 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda (Post 3781796)
Watching the game again it was apparent that they were not preparing for anything other than kneeling. I missed it the fist time but they were showing shots of PFM just standing there in his cap while the extra point was being made. Not huddled up or going over plays. They were caught with their pants down and weren't prepared to do squat.

Not a valid excuse. Once that td was scored, it should have been time to get your ****ing ass mentally, into the game, as the situation dictated.

BowlenBall 01-14-2013 11:23 PM

If Tebow is my quarterback? Take the knee.

If Manning is my quarterback? It seems obvious to go for it.

The frustrating thing is that Fox believes he's playing the percentages, which is fine if he is, in fact correct. But in freezing weather, playing against a tired, gassed team at altitude, two time-outs in your pocket, and a kicker with a big-time leg? The smart money says you try to close out that game then and there. As far as I can tell, Fox was playing AGAINST the percentages in this case.

01-14-2013 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BowlenBall (Post 3781908)
If Tebow is my quarterback? Take the knee.

If Manning is my quarterback? It seems obvious to go for it.

The frustrating thing is that Fox believes he's playing the percentages, which is fine if he is, in fact correct. But in freezing weather, playing against a tired, gassed team at altitude, two time-outs in your pocket, and a kicker with a big-time leg? The smart money says you try to close out that game then and there. As far as I can tell, Fox was playing AGAINST the percentages in this case.

Dumb thing is that yes something bad could happen that costs you the game. But once you hit OT that same fact is true on every play. You're not avoiding any risk by taking a knee. You're just giving away your first opportunity.

BowlenBall 01-14-2013 11:43 PM

Interesting sequence of events to close out the Atlanta-Seattle game the next day:


Atlanta Falcons at 00:31 (Seattle 28, Atlanta 27)

7-R.Longwell kicks 71 yards from SEA 35 to ATL -6. 32-Jz. Rodgers to ATL 28 for 34 yards (31-K.Chancellor).

1-10-ATL 28 (:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 83-H.Douglas to 50 for 22 yards (39-B.Browner).

Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:19.
1-10-(:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez to SEA 31 for 19 yards (29-E.Thomas).

Timeout #3 by ATL at 00:13.

Timeout #1 by SEA at 00:13.

1-10-SEA 31 (:13) 71-K.Biermann and 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

Seattle 28, Atlanta 30



Aaaaaaaaand that's why Atlanta is still playing, we're not.

Mile High 81 01-15-2013 05:38 AM

From the DP

Quote:

According to Keith Goldner at the excellent Advanced NFL Stats, since the 2000 NFL season there have been 21 games similar to the Broncos’ situation against the Ravens (a drive that starts with between 20-40 seconds remaining; the offense has two or more timeouts; the offense has either a deficit of 3-or-fewer points or the game is tied).

In those 21 situations, the offense scored a field goal four times. Not a lot. But only one offense turned the ball over and eventually lost the game (Donovan McNabb’s INT for Philadelphia against Washington in 2009). In 16 games, the offense missed a field goal or didn’t get a kick off
So that means
4 Times the team Win
16 Times nothing happend
1 Time the lose

So Mister "we play for the odds" Fox.

You have a 96 % Chance of winning or NOT Losing the Game. And a 4 % Chance of losing.

What do you do ?


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