Why running the ball on 3rd and 7 was the right call and why this forum is retarded.
 

Seriously i remember coming to the mane because the team forum at denverbroncos.com was full of retards that don't know a thing about football, well now i'm not sure this place is significantly better, considering all i hear is that we should have passed the ball on third and long with 1:20 left.

Here's why all of you are dead wrong.

1.) Chance of conversion is EXTREMELY LOW:

The highest conversion rate of 3rd downs in the entire NFL is New England at an impressive 48%. That's including 3rd and 1's, 3rd and 2's, 3rd and 3's. The Actual likelihood of converting a 3rd and 7 with the best offense in the NFL is way way way below 50%.

2.) Field position and Time:

40 seconds left, 0 time outs, 80 yards: This is what the offense hands the defense.

When exactly 80 seconds are left on the clock, 40 seconds equates to 50% of the time left, when you sit nearly at mid field, your punt has an extremely high chance of pinning the opponent inside their 20.

so Here's what you get by running off 40 seconds.

Scenario A: Opposing offense has 80 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds on average to run, they can cover 60 yards in 6 plays at 10 seconds each and have 20 seconds and 2 or 3 plays at the endzone from our redzone, that's a pretty good shot at scoring.

Scenario B: Opposing offense has 40 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds again, they now have only 3 tries to get 60 yards and have 1 or 2 shots at the endzone in scoring. This means your defense doesn't have to worry about anything less than 20 yards deep, and if there's any completions over the middle, even if they were for 40 yards, that would burn something like 30 seconds off the clock and the next shot would have to go at the endzone.

In other words - half decent prevent defense should make scenario B impossible against any offense, no matter how talented as long as you sit back and keep everything in front of you, where as scenario A gives them enough time to have a realistic shot at tieing the game. (I'll flesh this out more in point 4 as well)


3.) Touchdown was required, not a field goal:

The Ravens needed a touchdown, not a field goal, comebacks like the one Matt Ryan lead with timeouts and 30 seconds to score a field goal is relatively common, touchdowns off a prayer pass with 40 seconds left is almost unheard of.

4.) It is impossible for the opposing team to win if you play prevent properly.

NFL plays, even when running no huddle require 6-10 seconds to execute, and another 10 setup for a second play, the Ravens essentially had time to run a total of 3 full plays over the middle or 4 plays to the sideline assuming Flacco hits all of his completions.

This means each completion must average over 20 yards to even have a shot at the endzone that's not a hail mary. If you rush 3 and play prevent the likelyhood of scoring is almost 0%, why would anyone whose logical not like those odds?

5.) Peyton Manning made the right field call:

Manning is a cerebral player, if he sees 2-high safeties, he knows its 7 in the box and a run is almost guaranteed to get at least some yardage, in fact, we could even make an argument on the question: What is more likely to gain a first down against a defense looking for pass with a 2-man coverage called? A run or a pass?

Who said we had no chance to pick up that first down with a run. We in actuality ran time off the clock and gave ourselves a chance to get the first down as well - a chance probably not much worse than the slim chance at converting a 3rd and long over the air against 2 high man.

Conclusion:

I want to be politically correct and say something down the middle, but you guys who are criticizing manning or the offensive call are all a bunch of ****ing idiots.

You run the ball there, that gives you the best chance to win in that situation. They were down a touchdown not a fieldgoal, there were 0 timeouts and field position gave us the best chance to win with defense.

At some point you have play defense in the NFL, otherwise everyone would onside kick it every single time. In this game we lost because of poor safety play.

If you want to blame John Fox, blame him because didn't play prevent at a point in the game where pressing your corners up in the flats with a cover 2 defense made no sense (who the **** cares about 5-10 yard outs with 40 seconds left and 80 yards to go for a touchdown?).

So go ahead make fire Moore or fire fox threads about defensive errors but don't talk about stupid sh*t like "we should've gone for the first down". That's the stupidest sh*t i've ever heard.

agreed

I would put the ball in the hands of my best player and throw it.


Sincerely,

Bill Bellichick


p.s. My guy would make that play with skill guys half as good as Peyton's, would yours?

It was the right call.

Running the ball and running the clock down was the right choice.

I don't recall ever seeing a safety AT ANY LEVEL answer a prayer of a throw like that in that situation.

Good thread. I agree, and agreed at the time, only I was yelling at them to kneel on it on 2nd and 3rd down to eliminate any chance of a fumble. Think at the time I even said that in the gameday thread. Give it to the defense, they have 1:20 with no timeouts and 80 yards to go. Play extreme prevent and VonDoom should have gotten the game clinching sacks, like they have so many times before.

Rahim Moore is more responsible for this loss than anyone.

Life sucks right now.

Now when we got the ball back with 32 seconds left with 2 timeouts, and needing about 40-50 yards to give Prater a shot, and kneeled, thats where I will wholeheartedly agree with the Fox outrage there.

Rahim Moore cost us the lead. And after that I say Fox cost us the game.

Do you recall the AFC divisional round at Pittsburgh? Elway was faced with a 3rd and 5 in his territory. You're saying he should've run the ball and punted it? Well, we all know what he did. He told Shannon Sharpe to just get open. He converted it and the rest is history.

Fox exhibited his fear of failure by running it into the line on 3rd and 7. Percentages are nice, but if you go by percentages, the broncos punt to the steelers and they tie or win, in all likelihood. What do you lose if you don't convert? 2 yards and you STILL get to punt it deep, albeit with 30 more seconds on the clock.

I disagree with the OP take. You throw it--even a wr screen to DT or something where he can stay in bounds if he's short. Running it with hillman was submission.

Do you play to win, or do you play the percentages, that is the question...

With my Defense giving up big plays, with no pass rush and some young guys in the secondary, I would have put the ball in Manning's hands and let he and Stockley have a chance to ice that b****.....

I don't know, my backs are down and out, I let Manning put the game on his shoulders..

I don't think Fox was wrong with the call, its all relative, but like you said, BB I have to think throws a pass and stomps on the opposing teams nads... but then again, maybe thats why BB and Brady will be playing in New Orleans most likely, and hositing another big silver trophy...

I've been arguing this since Saturday night, you just did a more thorough job. 100% correct, good thread.

Was the situation remotely the same? Would Pittsburgh have been left with ~75 seconds, ~80 yards, and no time outs to score a tying TD? If not then your argument doesn't hold even a drop of water.

were it Willis or Knowshon, maybe, but Hillman? What are the percentages of Ronnie getting a first down on 3rd and 7? My guess, 0%? He hasn't enough expereince and he is not a thrid down back...

I totally agree with the 3rd and 7 call, you take 40 seconds off the clock. I saw someone yesterday post a stat that statistically Baltimore had a 3% chance of making a TD. I take the 97% choice all day long.

What I don't agree with is the kneel down. The Matt Ryan comparisons are that Denver had 30 seconds left with 2 timeouts and took the kneel down. At that point, Peyton would've only need to put us in FG range.

I agreed with the call at the time in the game thread and haven't changed my mind. This is like one of those deals in baseball where the manager plays the percentages and it doesn't work out and the fans call for his head. Well, 90% of the time it does work out.

Live by the percentages, die by the percentages I guess.....

^ Exactly. People are complaining about the wrong things. The play you mention, the handoff to Hester on 3rd down, and the field goal attempt are the calls people should be more angry about.

This. I understand the rationale behind running on 3rd and 7. I can't for the life of me understand why you kneel on the ball with 32 seconds and 2 timeouts left. How do you know your offense is even going to get another chance? In nearly identical circumstances (31 seconds left, 2 timeouts), Ryan got Atlanta in position for the game-winning field goal. How can you not give Manning a chance in that scenario? I don't even view that as a "conservative" call because you don't even know if your offense will ever get the ball again. That's just stupid, not conservative. Did Fox address this after the game?

Yeah, im not killing them for the run there. Again, when Flacco threw that ball, we had a win chance of 97.2 percent. Ill take that everytime. It's hindsight thinking. Actually at the time i wanted them to throw it, and now in hindsight, i dont think it was a bad decision to run it.

Play action on second down wouldnt have been so bad though

So why even have a coaching staff? If we are just playing the percentages then get 4 math wizards in a room with a phone and have them tell Manning what the next play call is. The beauty of having a competent front staff is making adjustments and getting a sense of whats going on in the game. This game had all the makings of an upset, our D was garbage all night, and we had a chance to ice it. We need to play to win, not to play to percentages.

At the end of the day, who's hands do you want the game to rest in? Your HOF QB, or our young secondary who was getting owned all game long?

Yup. I was at a party for the game, no Broncos fans except me. Before the play we discussed what the Broncos should do there. Every guy, about 6 of us, said Denver should run. People are only mad because of the overall outcome and the desire to blame. If the Broncos win as they should have there would be no mention of this play.

Yeah, if you are going to throw it, you do it on 1st or 2nd down, not a 3rd and long.

Reminds me of the 2007 AFC Championship. Bill did exactly what you proposed, except he only had 2 yards to go. Threw it just short and lost the game because of it.

This is such hindsight thinking. If they gave the ravens the ball back with 2:22 and two timeouts, id fully agree with you. What happened on that Moore play was a huge fluke. It just DOESN'T happen. In fact, let me pose this question.

If i gave you the same exact situation now: Ravens have the ball with :40 seconds left, no time outs, and they need a score....or you can give the Broncos one 3rd and 7, which do you choose?

I don't care how bad you're getting owned on defense. Nobody could possibly anticipate giving up 80 yards in 30 seconds with no timeouts. You can't coach to anticipate THAT much suckage.

I 100% agree that this was the right decision. It is a no-brainer. The odds of Moore (or someone else on Defense) completely crapping the bed were extremely low. Unfortunately, it happened, but it doesn't mean they made the wrong call.

My major issue with Fox were the friggin kneel-downs at the end of the halves, particularly the one at the end of the game. So cowardly. My issue with Manning was I thought he audibled into too many runs in the second half and OT. They just seemed to let the passing game get totally out of rhythm. I don't know why he kept running on 2nd and 1. Why not take a shot downfield in that situation? Ughhhhh. Worst. Game. Ever.