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-   -   Nate Silver's Prediction is In.... (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=109731)

01-11-2013 07:22 AM

Nate Silver's Prediction is In....
 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2451994.html


This guy is a lock on Politics and Baseball, hopefully he is wrong about the SB this year.... I hope Houston's D beats the everloving piss out of Tom Brady so Von can finsih him off, Mountain Time....

spdirty 01-11-2013 08:18 AM

That Super Bowl matchup would be stupid enough and depressing enough to get me to go to one of those dumbass Super Bowl parties.

Mr.Meanie 01-11-2013 08:25 AM

Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

Greatspirits 01-11-2013 08:30 AM

I wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened, really I'm just taking it one game at a time. We need to just get by Baltimore and go from there.

01-11-2013 08:31 AM

Why even play the games now? Just another prediction.

01-11-2013 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Meanie (Post 3775985)
Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

that's kind of what I was thinking, alot of moving parts.... but it would be very interesting to hear from Nate of one of his other geeks what analystics and trends actually do show repeatability and measure success...

Silver, during the elelction made a footbal comparison I thought was eye opening. At the time, Obama had a 85% chance of winning the elelction, and Nate compared it to an NFL team having a lead of three point, two minutes to go and you are on offense starting at your 30 yard line... that siuation in the NFL turns out a win 85% of the time... that's pretty cool.

Alot of team are begininng to build a Analytics dept for scouting and drafting... there is a belief Moneyball can be replicated in the NFL.. I don't know if it can, but I love Stats and these breakdowns...

TheReverend 01-11-2013 08:36 AM

Certainly possible

Bronco Boy 01-11-2013 09:04 AM

It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

SonOfLe-loLang 01-11-2013 09:09 AM

Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Beej 01-11-2013 09:17 AM

Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

SonOfLe-loLang 01-11-2013 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beej (Post 3776024)
Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

Tombstone RJ 01-11-2013 09:20 AM

reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

Kaylore 01-11-2013 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3776022)
Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

Kaylore 01-11-2013 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 3776027)
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

And this too...

Bronco Boy 01-11-2013 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 3776027)
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

Bronco X 01-11-2013 09:44 AM

Silver nailed the election because polling data is designed to and provides a fairly accurate representation of potential election results. There's no such comparable data for sports. If Silver makes an election prediction, you listen. That doesn't mean he can predict everything. Still, wish his prediction was different.

Tombstone RJ 01-11-2013 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Boy (Post 3776033)
FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

SonOfLe-loLang 01-11-2013 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 3776044)
really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

winstoncup bronco 01-11-2013 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3776026)
Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

I agree.

Anything can happen in the plaoffs. All it takes is one bad day. The Giants won two Super Bowls going against home playoff teams that thought they would handle them easily.

We should win this game, but am I 100% confident we will? No flippin way.

Tombstone RJ 01-11-2013 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang (Post 3776047)
We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

no we didn't. I stated some facts and you pulled up your skirt and cried.

01-11-2013 10:09 AM

I love Nate Silver, but he's a baseball guy.

Kaylore 01-11-2013 10:10 AM

I'm sorry, but isn't Huffington Post part of AOL? Objectively speaking isn't that kind of a sign of it sucking? It's like if drudge report went to myspace....

Mogulseeker 01-11-2013 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Meanie (Post 3775985)
Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

I hope you're right....

Silver picked every election correctly in 2012 except North Dakota.

Rock Chalk 01-11-2013 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Boy (Post 3776019)
It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

Except Football Outsiders has the Broncos as #2 behind Seattle

Rock Chalk 01-11-2013 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore (Post 3776028)
Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

No, its not even the odds.

Whatever Silver did, he went out on a limb picking New England.

the odds favor Denver.

Football Outsiders favors Denver (in the AFC)

And while Silver has been right in politics and baseball, he is a far cry from knowing what football outsiders does and even football outsiders doesn't have a good track record of predicting football games.

In fact, football is the most unpredictable of all sports (NFL that is). In the NBA and College hoops there are literally dozens of really fantastic metrics that are great predictors. IN baseball they can basically just stop playing because the predictors in them are extremely refined.

But football, the best model is DVOA from football outsiders and they are wrong far more often than they are right.


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