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-   -   There is No Fiscal Crisis (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=109204)

Rohirrim 12-07-2012 07:46 AM

There is No Fiscal Crisis
 
Let’s get one thing straight: America is not facing a fiscal crisis. It is, however, still very much experiencing a job crisis.

It’s easy to get confused about the fiscal thing, since everyone’s talking about the “fiscal cliff.” Indeed, one recent poll suggests that a large plurality of the public believes that the budget deficit will go up if we go off that cliff.

In fact, of course, it’s just the opposite: The danger is that the deficit will come down too much, too fast. And the reasons that might happen are purely political; we may be about to slash spending and raise taxes not because markets demand it, but because Republicans have been using blackmail as a bargaining strategy, and the president seems ready to call their bluff.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/op...5fI3FhblUtB5A&

Keep in mind, the real incomes of the top 1% have increased by 700% over the last thirty years. Over that same period of time, the increase for the average, working American has topped out at about 22% (one third the growth of the previous 30 years).

In other words, the whole "fiscal cliff" is a campaign of bull**** designed to steal more wealth from the bottom 99%.

You'll see. ;D

BroncoInferno 12-07-2012 01:17 PM

The problem is that people have a tendency to conceptualize complex things in more simplistic ways they can understand. So, the national economy is thought of as similar to one's personal finances (which, of course, it isn't). Hell, a large chunk of the debt is money we owe to ourselves. Cheney wasn't entirely wrong when he said "Deficits don't matter." This is a made up crisis so the plutocrats can steal more from the social safety net and funnel into their coffers.

Meck77 12-07-2012 04:38 PM

Talked to my friend who works in the White House today. I'll be visiting there in two weeks. His exact words "If the public really knew what was going on it would be pure chaos out there right now".

Cito Pelon 12-07-2012 04:41 PM

I don't want to see the cliff, can't be laughed off as no big deal. Markets will crash worldwide. It's a big deal.

W*GS 12-07-2012 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meck77 (Post 3748220)
Talked to my friend who works in the White House today. I'll be visiting there in two weeks. His exact words "If the public really knew what was going on it would be pure chaos out there right now".

So what's going on that we don't know?

Or are you channeling gaffe?

Kid A 12-07-2012 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon (Post 3748223)
I don't want to see the cliff, can't be laughed off as no big deal. Markets will crash worldwide. It's a big deal.

Markets won't crash the day after the deadline passes. I expect they will react negatively, but the detrimental effects of the tax hikes and the sequester will be gradual—and minimal if they pass a deal soon after. So really the "cliff" metaphor has always been a poor one in that sense. If bargaining drags on well past the deadline, then we reach the oh **** situation.

What Roh/Krugman are saying, though, is that the nature of the problem posed by the "fiscal cliff" is being widely misrepresented. The main narrative seems to be "this 'cliff' is the result of putting off needed deficit reduction measures for too long, and now me must agree on a way to implement them." Hell, both parties are largely sticking somewhat close to that narrative.

They're wrong. The "cliff" really represents an austerity crisis: a sudden implementation of taxes (on everyone) and budget cuts—anti-stimulus that would wreck havoc on a very weak economy. Priorities #1-10 should be strengthening that recovery by, yes, running up further deficits and stimulating further job growth. Taking the bitter medicine of taxes and budget cuts should wait until we are in a stable economy. If we implement them now, even only in part, it will only backfire and make the long term deficits worse (see: Great Britain).

Frankly, the best thing they could do is kick the can down the road even further. But that would be politically toxic, so here we are...

Cito Pelon 12-07-2012 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kid A (Post 3748298)
Markets won't crash the day after the deadline passes. I expect they will react negatively, but the detrimental effects of the tax hikes and the sequester will be gradual—and minimal if they pass a deal soon after. So really the "cliff" metaphor has always been a poor one in that sense. If bargaining drags on well past the deadline, then we reach the oh **** situation.

What Roh/Krugman are saying, though, is that the nature of the problem posed by the "fiscal cliff" is being widely misrepresented. The main narrative seems to be "this 'cliff' is the result of putting off needed deficit reduction measures for too long, and now me must agree on a way to implement them." Hell, both parties are largely sticking somewhat close to that narrative.

They're wrong. The "cliff" really represents an austerity crisis: a sudden implementation of taxes (on everyone) and budget cuts—anti-stimulus that would wreck havoc on a very weak economy. Priorities #1-10 should be strengthening that recovery by, yes, running up further deficits and stimulating further job growth. Taking the bitter medicine of taxes and budget cuts should wait until we are in a stable economy. If we implement them now, even only in part, it will only backfire and make the long term deficits worse (see: Great Britain).

Frankly, the best thing they could do is kick the can down the road even further. But that would be politically toxic, so here we are...

Yeah, you better be safe on your investments, because the markets worldwide will nosedive the day the cliff comes about.

chadta 12-08-2012 04:06 AM

So if a Canadian was to be in the USA on January 1st as you guys go off the cliff, what should he do ?

I spend the holidays in myrtle beach and am actually a little concerned.

12-08-2012 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chadta (Post 3748445)
So if a Canadian was to be in the USA on January 1st as you guys go off the cliff, what should he do ?

I spend the holidays in myrtle beach and am actually a little concerned.

Avoid taking any work that requires you to pay Social Security and Medicare taxes. Do that and you'll be fine. :)

Rohirrim 12-08-2012 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kid A (Post 3748298)
Markets won't crash the day after the deadline passes. I expect they will react negatively, but the detrimental effects of the tax hikes and the sequester will be gradual—and minimal if they pass a deal soon after. So really the "cliff" metaphor has always been a poor one in that sense. If bargaining drags on well past the deadline, then we reach the oh **** situation.

What Roh/Krugman are saying, though, is that the nature of the problem posed by the "fiscal cliff" is being widely misrepresented. The main narrative seems to be "this 'cliff' is the result of putting off needed deficit reduction measures for too long, and now me must agree on a way to implement them." Hell, both parties are largely sticking somewhat close to that narrative.

They're wrong. The "cliff" really represents an austerity crisis: a sudden implementation of taxes (on everyone) and budget cuts—anti-stimulus that would wreck havoc on a very weak economy. Priorities #1-10 should be strengthening that recovery by, yes, running up further deficits and stimulating further job growth. Taking the bitter medicine of taxes and budget cuts should wait until we are in a stable economy. If we implement them now, even only in part, it will only backfire and make the long term deficits worse (see: Great Britain).

Frankly, the best thing they could do is kick the can down the road even further. But that would be politically toxic, so here we are...

Yep. The solution is more stimulus to create more jobs. Robert Reich agrees.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert...b_2257674.html

We don't have a fiscal crisis. We have a jobs crisis. If, in solving this so called "fiscal crisis" we resort to austerity measures, that means fewer jobs, fewer consumers, less spending. The perfect analogy is the "graveyard spiral." This is where a pilot loses his horizon and then tries to correct using his own sense of his position, which has been compromised, instead of reading his instruments. It's what probably happened to JFK, Jr. What the Republicans want to do is instinctively "pull back on the stick" which will tighten the spiral and drive us into the ground. What economists like Krugman are telling us is "read the instruments," we need to level off.

Too bad we are stuck in a political "perfect storm." Nobody can do anything about it because the Right is stuck in an ideological vise. They can't move, and they can't allow anybody else to move either. So, they bring down the whole show. Enjoy.

orinjkrush 12-08-2012 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3747761)
Let’s get one thing straight: America is not facing a fiscal crisis. It is, however, still very much experiencing a job crisis.

It’s easy to get confused about the fiscal thing, since everyone’s talking about the “fiscal cliff.” Indeed, one recent poll suggests that a large plurality of the public believes that the budget deficit will go up if we go off that cliff.

In fact, of course, it’s just the opposite: The danger is that the deficit will come down too much, too fast. And the reasons that might happen are purely political; we may be about to slash spending and raise taxes not because markets demand it, but because Republicans have been using blackmail as a bargaining strategy, and the president seems ready to call their bluff.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/op...5fI3FhblUtB5A&



Keep in mind, the real incomes of the top 1% have increased by 700% over the last thirty years. Over that same period of time, the increase for the average, working American has topped out at about 22% (one third the growth of the previous 30 years).

In other words, the whole "fiscal cliff" is a campaign of bull**** designed to steal more wealth from the bottom 99%.

You'll see. ;D

QFT!!

Kid A 12-08-2012 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chadta (Post 3748445)
So if a Canadian was to be in the USA on January 1st as you guys go off the cliff, what should he do ?

I spend the holidays in myrtle beach and am actually a little concerned.

You'll be fine. Seriously. I'm not really on board with the Intentionally Go Over the Cliff crowd, but it's seriously not a "cliff." It's a gradual slope. Look at the markets right now. They aren't panicking. If going past that deadline is going to send them plummeting, they would already be reacting. They obviously don't love the uncertainty here, and will react poorly if we pass the deadline, but it won't be armageddon by any stretch. The danger of going past the deadline is Washington rushing to make a deal that lets a lot of the austerity measures stay in place, which would be bad for growth.

But this will have zero impact on a vacation to Florida. There won't be panic in the streets, canceled flights, etc on Jan 1 if nothing was passed yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...terity-crisis/

orinjkrush 12-08-2012 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim (Post 3748458)
Yep. The solution is more stimulus to create more jobs. Robert Reich agrees.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert...b_2257674.html

We don't have a fiscal crisis. We have a jobs crisis. If, in solving this so called "fiscal crisis" we resort to austerity measures, that means fewer jobs, fewer consumers, less spending. The perfect analogy is the "graveyard spiral." This is where a pilot loses his horizon and then tries to correct using his own sense of his position, which has been compromised, instead of reading his instruments. It's what probably happened to JFK, Jr. What the Republicans want to do is instinctively "pull back on the stick" which will tighten the spiral and drive us into the ground. What economists like Krugman are telling us is "read the instruments," we need to level off.

Too bad we are stuck in a political "perfect storm." Nobody can do anything about it because the Right is stuck in an ideological vise. They can't move, and they can't allow anybody else to move either. So, they bring down the whole show. Enjoy.

we have tons of good, honest, needed public works that need done. (i.e. harden the electric grid against EMP etc.) and we have tons of good, honest, hardworking people who need work.

the private sector (i.e. the Wall St banksters) has ruined the real economy to profit from their gambling derivatives and offshoring. the "job creators" are anything but.

Its time to take job creation out of the hands of Wall St. and invest in the national security of the US. And that doesn't mean anything outside the confines of the CONUS. the perpetual wars need to end now.

The notion that a worldwide governance of benevolent ECONOMISTS will lead to peace and prosperity is showing to be a dismal failure. ECONOMISTS need to shut up, sit down and let real people deal with real work, real jobs (the jobs crisis), real money and real life.

End the Fed. (cancel all "debt" the Treasury owes to the Fed.) End the World Bank. End the IMF. End the G8. End the G20. And most of all arrest and incarcerate all current and past Goldman Sachs employees and send them to Gitmo, waterboard them and send a clear message that their treason will have consequences.

whew. i need to move to decaffeinated.

Meck77 12-08-2012 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W*GS (Post 3748250)
So what's going on that we don't know?

Or are you channeling gaffe?

Well W*gs we all like to think we know WTF we are talking about around here but none of us really do. What I do know is there is a lot more going on that we don't know which is keeping things calm for now.

It just makes sense to prepare yourself, family, loved ones for the future no matter what it holds for us. The world has certainly changed from the pre 9-11 world we once enjoyed.

I don't exactly know what is coming our way but if there is one thing certain is that things will change. Maybe I'll know more later in a few weeks.

orinjkrush 12-08-2012 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meck77 (Post 3748473)
Well W*gs we all like to think we know WTF we are talking about around here but none of us really do. What I do know is there is a lot more going on that we don't know which is keeping things calm for now.

It just makes sense to prepare yourself, family, loved ones for the future no matter what it holds for us. The world has certainly changed from the pre 9-11 world we once enjoyed.

I don't exactly know what is coming our way but if there is one thing certain is that things will change. Maybe I'll know more later in a few weeks.

do you suggest buying gold/silver?

Requiem 12-08-2012 08:13 AM

The sky is falling people are right on cue as usual.

Bob 12-08-2012 08:51 AM

So 16 trillion in debt doesn't matter? We will have inflation at some point and it will be significant - do you think that we can continue to have monetary easing without consequences? I would like for you to be right - that we could continue to spend much, much more than we bring in, but you are wrong on this point.

You must be one of those people that believed Obama when he said he would decrease the debt in half - when he doubled it. You are actually worried about our debt going down too fast? Freaking amazing! What color is the sky on your planet? Bush was very bad on this -- Obama, the Fed and Congress over the past four years have shockingly been worse. When the dollar bubble pops most likely they (and certainly you) will blame capitalism.

Kid A 12-08-2012 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob (Post 3748521)
So 16 trillion in debt doesn't matter? We will have inflation at some point and it will be significant - do you think that we can continue to have monetary easing without consequences? I would like for you to be right - that we could continue to spend much, much more than we bring in, but you are wrong on this point.

You must be one of those people that believed Obama when he said he would decrease the debt in half - when he doubled it. You are actually worried about our debt going down too fast? Freaking amazing! What color is the sky on your planet? Bush was very bad on this -- Obama, the Fed and Congress over the past four years have shockingly been worse. When the dollar bubble pops most likely they (and certainly you) will blame capitalism.

If you honestly want to know where we are coming from (not to necessarily win you over, but to just at least understand the argument), take the 20 minutes to watch this video Drek posted in an earlier thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drek (Post 3727922)


And here is a link to the slideshow used in the video. Useful to have up while watching, as it's hard to read in the video.

Rohirrim 12-08-2012 11:10 AM

Keep in mind that the politicians, including Obama, are buying into the argument that we have to do something to make the world better for business and then business will do good stuff for the American people; Sort of a modified "What's good for GM is good for America" approach. Keep in mind, when we did all that deregulation, that was for the good of business. And what did they do in return? They bankrupted the country.

Also keep in mind, those who are howling most about the deficits, like the banksters who say they can't loan money until things are more stable, are also many of the same corporations who received the most in stimulus payments and bailouts. In other words, they are screaming about deficits which they are largely responsible for, by creating the need for them to be bailed out, and now they hide that money in offshore accounts, while demanding that the solution for the deficits is to cut entitlements and give them more tax breaks. Ha!

Lewis Carroll couldn't come up with this kind of ****. Hilarious!

Rohirrim 12-08-2012 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kid A (Post 3748539)
If you honestly want to know where we are coming from (not to necessarily win you over, but to just at least understand the argument), take the 20 minutes to watch this video Drek posted in an earlier thread:




And here is a link to the slideshow used in the video. Useful to have up while watching, as it's hard to read in the video.

Bingo! Thanks to Drek for that video. Why don't they play that thing, in its entirety, on the evening news? There's the real question for our media.

mhgaffney 12-08-2012 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroncoBeavis (Post 3748457)
Avoid taking any work that requires you to pay Social Security and Medicare taxes. Do that and you'll be fine. :)

Butthead is obviously just a kid. Probably thinks he will live forever.

haha

mhgaffney 12-08-2012 01:26 PM

The banksters just got ~$40 billion in virtually free money via QE 3.

They won't invest it in the real economy because they can get a guaranteed return by purchasing US gov't bonds.

Banksters prefer a low rate of return if its no risk.

Meanwhile, the dollar erodes, there are no jobs, and we face likely cut backs in SS and medicare --

not to mention political paralysis -- an explosive mix

MHG

Meck77 12-08-2012 01:38 PM

Gaff that is 40 billion per month with no end date.


Orinjkrush...I have no idea what your financial situation is and how much paper you are sitting on. If you had any amount of paper before Obama's first administration that was the time to convert it or when Garcia started the (Gold is a bad investment thread):rofl: Gold was under $1,000 then.

Silver was just $10 bucks.

Gold is a little spendy in the $1,700 range but again it all depends on your financial situation. Silver at $33 is much closer to the $26 price point that it has bottomed out at numerous times since Feb 2011.

Well anyway.....Thanks Ron Paul at least one man gave those who were listening a warning about the fiscal cliff MANY MANY years ago.

orinjkrush 12-08-2012 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meck77 (Post 3748681)
Gaff that is 40 billion per month with no end date.


Orinjkrush...I have no idea what your financial situation is and how much paper you are sitting on. If you had any amount of paper before Obama's first administration that was the time to convert it or when Garcia started the (Gold is a bad investment thread):rofl: Gold was under $1,000 then.

Silver was just $10 bucks.

Gold is a little spendy in the $1,700 range but again it all depends on your financial situation. Silver at $33 is much closer to the $26 price point that it has bottomed out at numerous times since Feb 2011.

Well anyway.....Thanks Ron Paul at least one man gave those who were listening a warning about the fiscal cliff MANY MANY years ago.

thanks Meck. am looking into buying silver rounds/bars. just in case the sun don't come up.

Meck77 12-08-2012 08:36 PM

www.goldmart.com good service, lowest premiums you will find on the net in smaller quantities.

You can pick up "generic" silver rounds for just .89 cents http://www.goldmart.com/bullion-1/si...er-rounds.html over the spot price. You can try your local LCS aka local coin shop but they'll probably want 2.00 over spot.

www.tulving.com but you got to buy big

www.kitco.com great site to follow pricing...

www.monex.com another good site for pricing and longer term charts for perspective. Click on the various metal prices then click on the 1 yr, 5yr and 10 yr charts. You'll soon realize what is going on.

http://www.goldshark.com/ You can compare prices with almost every major website but again you it's hard to beat goldmart.

Craigslist is another great place to buy pms below spot price but I'd get your feet wet elsewhere first.

I think some confuse being prepared with "end of the world" mentality. Being prepared to me means controlling your own financial destiny, being diversified, and making sure what you are working for holds true value. Holding dollars is a slow losing battle no matter how hard or smart you think you are working.

Anyway feel free to send me a private message anytime if you have any questions. Happy stacking.


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