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FF Advice
At QB, should I start Luck versus Tenn or Newton versus Atl? Both at home. Luck has been great lately and Tenn is bad against the pass, but Newton even in a loss put up big numbers on the road versus Atlanta last game.
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While we're at it...in a PPR league, who is a better bet this week: Decker or Moreno?
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Luck and Decker
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Decker sucks. I say moreno.
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Slight lean towards Luck and neither...that's gonna be hillman, tamme, dreesen, DT, and Denver's D racking up the points I hope...in a must win my opponent has Manning, Moreno, and Decker...this is the part of fantasy football that I hate.
My question is Miles Austin, Brandon Lloyd, or Justin Blackmon and then Tamme, Gates, or Dallas Clark? |
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I say Luck and Decker also. Mike Nolan has done a good job scheming this year, so I think Luck is a better bet against a weak team. I have a gut feel that Decker will have a good game this week after being pretty lackluster for the last few.
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Decker? Shoe fell off. Seems Decker plays well when DT cannot get going. If DT gets going Manning doesn't even look his way and will supplement DT with the Tight ends.. Decker did though had a good game against Oakland last time and the Raiders have **** corners. Moreno? 20 carries a game and 4 receptions. He has to get into the end zone one of these days. right? Definitely the most disappointing thing about him with the amount of touches he gets. |
Just to add if Newton tosses a pick or fumbles he falls the eff apart. hehe Have fun making your selection OP.
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Tennessee has some of the worst safety play in the NFL. Both Hilton and Avery can abuse them deep. The CBs are decent, so I do expect Wayne to be held somewhat in check on the intermediate throws. The Titans under their new OC want to throw the ball extensively these last few games to get a good look at Locker. This game has the makings of a shoot out, which is good news for Luck owners.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is one of the best defenses against the pass. Their entire secondary is good. They are also coming off a gameplan that completely shut down Jimmy Graham, not good for Olsen. Brandon LaFell, I believe, is out for this game as well. Newton already isn't the best passer and the Carolina O-line is banged up. Meanwhile, the Carolina defense is bad, and Ryan never struggles in back to back games. Newton can get you points by scrambling and scoring, but if the Falcons get up big, which is likely, he'll be forced to pass. In this particular matchup, I'd say the odds are heavily in Luck's favor to be the higher scoring fantasy QB. Newton is much more riskier, but also has the better chance to hit a homerun (30+ points via multiple rushing scores). |
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If the game is close, we'll want to run. If we get up big early, we'll want to run. There's little chance we fall behind or this turns into a shoot out. Thus, the odds favor Moreno. Moreno's floor is probably 70 yards rushing and 2/10 yards receiving. Decker's floor is 2/20 receiving. Both probably have similar overall fantasy point ceilings: 100+ yards, 2 TDs, 4-5 receptions. I think this is a no-brainer for Moreno personally. The risk is less while his ceiling is equivalent to Decker's. |
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As for TE, they all probably score similar. Gates has a tough matchup with Pittsburgh and their now-healthy safeties. Both Clark and Tamme have great matchups. Clark probably has more scoring potential, but with Stokley out, I think Tamme gets more overall targets. I expect both to score around 8 points. |
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If it's Decker vs. Moreno, you gotta go Moreno as he is guaranteed significant touches, Decker is not. Also helps that Oakland is worse against the run than they are against the pass. Then you factor in we will probably play with a decent lead from the 2nd quarter on, we will probably run quite a bit.
I think Moreno goes off tomorrow. |
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Think with Tamme I'll wait and see if Stokley is out or not before pulling that trigger. Basically I need to either win this game or lose and hope the 5th place guy loses or lose and if the 5th place guy wins I need to outscore him by 3 points because of the tiebreaker. It's a pretty decent place to be in except he's playing a last place guy so he'll probably win. Really want to make the playoffs in all 3 of my leagues. So far I'm 2/3 and this one would be so nice. |
The thing about luck is he only puts up huge numbers when playing from behind. I don't see Tennessee scoring much so that hurts pucks production. Arians try's to run a balanced offense to try and protect his young qb but when they start to get down a lot luck goes tebow and lights it up,
Newton has been hot lately plus I think atl will score putting newton in catch up mode forcing him to put up numbers. I'd go with scam this week |
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