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Rock Chalk 11-13-2012 02:43 PM

Denver's Efficiency
 
For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

TheReverend 11-13-2012 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Chalk (Post 3725656)
Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instanc...x/23924125.jpg

11-13-2012 02:52 PM

The overall balance has been great to see developing over the past month.Don't recall quickly the last time we had back-to-back games with kick/punt returns for TD.

Rock Chalk 11-13-2012 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheReverend (Post 3725658)

My apologies Patrick. I know you aren't an idiot but you have to throw these disclaimers on the internet.

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...21638124_n.jpg

baja 11-13-2012 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Chalk (Post 3725656)
For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

Wonderful web site, that one gets bookmarked.

Bronco Boy 11-13-2012 05:44 PM

They now have us at a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. I like those odds.

broncosteven 11-13-2012 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheReverend (Post 3725658)

F n G Douchenozzle!

Wasn't their also something about stabbing people through the iNteRNEts?

I miss the old Alec

baja 11-13-2012 06:42 PM

Peyton Manning, ranked #1 has a DYAR of 1,112

Matt Cassel, ranked #32 has a DYAR of - 480

Now there is a player spread for ya.

baja 11-13-2012 06:52 PM

Denver went from #15 on special teams last week to #8 this week

According to this web site we are #4 on defense / #4 on offense / #8 on special teams

As I was saying on the game day thread - COMPLETE TEAM.

So much fun being a Bronco fan after what we endured the last decade.

Feels like 1996 again. No Jacksonvilles, Por Favor

baja 11-13-2012 06:59 PM

Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs

11-13-2012 07:03 PM

and people negatively repped me for my Broncos are the best team in the NFL thread!!! LMAO!! I want my rep points back!!!!!

11-13-2012 07:07 PM

What's funny abotu the rankings is the "fumble luck". If you do not recover fumbles you actually move up in the rankings. It does make sense but is weird.

11-13-2012 07:09 PM

The Colts are 6-3 and rated #27?

TonyR 11-13-2012 07:19 PM

Sagarin has us at #2 behind Houston.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl12.htm

TonyR 11-13-2012 07:21 PM

Advanced NFL Stats has us at #1 ahead of Houston.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...s-week-11.html

Quote:

The equation here is pretty simple. Take a solid defense. Add Peyton Manning. You get a team that's very hard to beat.

11-13-2012 07:22 PM

So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.

scorpio 11-13-2012 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bacchus (Post 3725867)
So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.

Billick at Fox Sports has us #2

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings

bronco militia 11-13-2012 07:37 PM

hopefully this means we get a good bowl game

baja 11-13-2012 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronco militia (Post 3725877)
hopefully this means we get a good bowl game

It will be Super. ;D

orangeatheist 11-13-2012 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja (Post 3725843)
Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs

As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..." Ha! Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO! ROFL!

baja 11-13-2012 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orangeatheist (Post 3725881)
As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..." Ha! Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO! ROFL!

and that after a fair game against Pittsburg in Pittsburg. KC had a chance to win in overtime but Cassel fixed that with an INT. ;D

Did you watch the game. They are so bad I almost feel sorry for the fan base, heck I do feel bad for them. Nobody should have to endure so much fail for so long.


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