Three New Likely Voter Polls
 

These polls are all likely voters.

9/13: Obama Up Five Points Over Romney in Virginia

This is without factoring how much of the vote third-party candidate and fellow conservative Virgil Goode will take away from Romney. Virginia will be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...y-in-virginia/

9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida


5 point lead for Obama, 7 point lead for Obama with independent voters. Florida will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...ey-in-florida/

9/13: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points in Ohio

Obama has a sizable lead in all age groups in Ohio, including a whopping 9% advantage over Romney in likely voters 60 and over. Ohio will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...oints-in-ohio/

explains some of the desperation willard is showing. It's still no excuse for willard trying to exploit the deaths of americans in libya for political gain.

Didn't work anyway.

I'm thinking Obama might win bigger than he did with McCain. McCain actually got a convention bounce, and it wasn't until after the debates that Obama should a substantive lead.

Actually the polls and the pathetic showing at the repub convention are to blame for pathetic reach and desperation coming from Romney and several OP
on this board..............

BTW obama is up 6 points in the FOX NEWS POLL which Bill O reilly tried to discredit......get that...he tried to discredit his own right leaning poll.

Folks the wheels are coming off...............

Keep opening your cake hole, Mittens - every time you says something, the voters get a clearer picture of what a complete piece of moral garbage on legs you really are.

http://www.bartcop.com/romney-libya-fox.jpg

The most stark difference between the two conventions:

The DNC reflected the real America in all its diversity.

The RNC looked like some kind of Klan or Aryan Brotherhood rally.

Thanks to eight years of Bush and, now, the TeaTards, the GOP has been reduced to an exclusive club for sister diddling racists, snake handlers, and a handful of rich white guys.

http://www.bartcop.com/gop-symbol.jpg

While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%.

Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up.

Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

OK I realize facts are hard for you right asswipes but one poll showing Romney up versus a half dozen saying otherwise should give you a clue.

The fox news poll has OBAMA up by 6 points, spin that one ?

While it does seem the wheels are falling off the R & R boys campaign, I'll wait till the election is over.

Anyone else notice that Romney did another flop and basically did what he accused the President of doing. Certainly sounds to me like he's apologizing for America.

What say you?

LULZ, RAS as a balanced and accurate poll.

FYI, Rasmussen always leans right pretty strongly up until late October when they start rolling out more legitimate polls to keep their status as "unbiased" in tact.

Just a few weeks ago they had 14 point swings within a week in both Ohio and Florida. Hell of a model they're working with to generate that kind of swing.

No polls matter right now other than they may make Romney do something desperate. The debates will seal the deal for one of them, and I think Romney will F up based on his performance in the Republican debates. Biden and Ryan will be an idological draw.

Unfortunately the winning sound bite will determine a bunch of people's votes e.g. "I knew Jack Kennedy and you sir are no Jack Kennedy".

True, the game is still in play. Obama has not a comfortable lead.

However Romney is getting desperate and will continue doing stupid stuff which will push the polls more towards Obama.

The debates will seal the deal. Romney is not a quick thinker nor a even somewhat good speaker.............Obama will beat him over the head with facts ala Bill Clinton and Romney will look clueless as has looked many many times.

The three NBC/Marist polls over sample Democrats and Ind. Democrats made up 31% to Republicans 26%. So it's clear the numbers will favor Obama by far. Independents made up 43%. Independents haven't even made up more than 30% of Virginia statewide voting the past two election cycles.

These polls also bank on the fact that we will see voting demographics close to 2008 election when we saw massive Democratic turnout. Voter enthusiasm this time around is going to favor Republicans as they are more enthusiastic about voting.

And no...it's not just one poll showing Romney leading. It's just you only hear about Obama leading polls in the media. Another poll of likely voters released on Tuesday had Romney up 5 points in Virginia.

Bottom line is...all polls are BS and we know that based on past elections. Before the recall vote of Scott Walker the polls indicated he would lose.

rasmussen is a joke. always has been.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

obama leads in all legit polls.

as pathetc as ras is,they even have Obama ahead in VA.

Of course you think that.

But my first post indicates they were the most accurate in 2008.

what about all the rest of the polls that say different including a fox news poll or do you just want to ignore that ?

Dblow is is as desperate as willard. can't handle the fact that willard is losing the race.

Tombstones take from the rep bomb thread:


Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset"> Originally Posted by Kaylore http://www.orangemane.com/BB/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Rasmussen is the only accurate poll. It's predicted the presidential outcomes with greater accuracy than any of the others. I believe the most recent CNN poll polled 33% Dems to 22% Republicans and showed a (surprise) Obama seven point lead! Go figure!
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
media manipulation at its finest. "tombstone RJ"

Rasmussen Bias Redux
 

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/rasmussen-bias-redux/

Actually, no.

Polls can't take GOP fraud (see 2000 and 2004) into account.

Best resource, in my opinion, is Five Thirty Eight. For the uninitiated, the guy who managed Baseball Prospectus analyzed all the polls, finding their biases, figuring out what indicators really matter and nailed it in the 08 election. Now his blog is hosted by the NYT: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Anyway, he has Obama in a solid lead right now due to him having a slight lead pre-convention, Romney getting almost no boost in the poll from the RNC (which normally would be expected to be higher) and Obama getting a decent boost from the DNC. Has Obama at 78% odds (92% if election were held today).

Lack of a bounce from the RNC seems to indicate this isn't an election Romney can win. Certainly one Obama could lose with a big enough sudden downturn in the economy, but nothing the Romney campaign does at this point will overturn the fact that swing voters just don't really like him and, sluggish economy aside, seem to want to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

You guys can all bash Rasmussen all you want. But you ignore the fact that they are consistently accurate in their polling. You convenvetinalty ignore what I said earlier.

I was talking to a friend about polling and he made a good point that further illustrates what I have been saying.

Actual turnout in 2008 was Dem +7, and incidentally, Obama also won the popular vote by +7.

In 2010, the actual turnout was Repub +2 !!! Yet all these polls are using sample sizes based on 2008!! Or WORSE. One poll had Obama up +7, but the sample size was Dem+10!!! PLUS TEN!! That would assume that Dem turnout this year would be BETTER than in 2008!!! NO WAY THAT HAPPENS!! These polls are meant to INFLUENCE. Polls will get more accurate with about 1-2 weeks to go until the election. That's because they stop trying to influence....and actually start worrying about their reputations as accurate pollsters.

Turnout will probably be closer to 2010, which was Repub +2.....could be even, could be higher.

If these polls sampled based on R+2.....Romney would be up by at least 6-7 points.

It all comes down to turnout.