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View Full Version : Fantasy Football musings....top player is?


JCMElway
08-23-2011, 02:10 PM
If you had the top draft spot in your fantasy league, who's your selection?

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 02:13 PM
Peterson or CJ. I lean to Peterson.

SonOfLe-loLang
08-23-2011, 02:14 PM
Why isnt Michael Vick on more of these lists? Simply because theres a bias against QBs? Its not out of the question to see him get 800-900 yds 8-9 tds ON THE GROUND

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 02:15 PM
Why isnt Michael Vick on more of these lists? Simply because theres a bias against QBs? Its not out of the question to see him get 800-900 yds 8-9 tds ON THE GROUND

Or to see him get leg snapped or complacent and lazy or etc

bfoflcommish
08-23-2011, 02:15 PM
Why isnt Michael Vick on more of these lists? Simply because theres a bias against QBs? Its not out of the question to see him get 800-900 yds 8-9 tds ON THE GROUND

because most leagues you only get 4 points for a passing TD. scoring is usually greared to favor rb's over qb's, plus the difference between the top rb's compared to how deep you can be productive at QB is a wide range

Aftermath
08-23-2011, 02:28 PM
AP, not too sure about Foster again. I'm thinking Mendenhall and McFadden will both have a good year, but you never know.

Smiling Assassin27
08-23-2011, 02:30 PM
Sebastian Janikowski


Sincerely,

Al


Seriously, Matthew Berry has Vick at #1 but I think I'd go Foster since he's in the ZBS under Kubes, who has already turned him into a monster.

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 02:31 PM
AP, not too sure about Foster again. I'm thinking Mendenhall and McFadden will both have a good year, but you never know.

I drafted Ben Tate at the bottom of the draft for WHEN Foster goes down

gyldenlove
08-23-2011, 02:34 PM
I would not want to have top pick. I am not sure about Peterson this year he will be seeing a lot of 8 and 9 man boxes and I don't think his offensive line is as good as it was. I don't like that CJ is still holding out and I don't think Foster can repeat. Right now I would go with Steven Jackson.

In the middle of the 1st I really like Charles and Mcfadden, MJD and Turner.

Smiling Assassin27
08-23-2011, 02:40 PM
I would not want to have top pick. I am not sure about Peterson this year he will be seeing a lot of 8 and 9 man boxes and I don't think his offensive line is as good as it was. I don't like that CJ is still holding out and I don't think Foster can repeat. Right now I would go with Steven Jackson.

In the middle of the 1st I really like Charles and Mcfadden, MJD and Turner.

I've got my eye on Turner but he's got a guy that takes carries from him in the redzone. MJD's knee is bone on bone, so I think we'll see less carries outta him. Jackson's 28 and not nearly as productive as he once was, but he's probably gonna get 300 touches.

If not Foster, it's gonna be CJ, IMO.

tsiguy96
08-23-2011, 02:49 PM
Peterson or CJ. I lean to Peterson.

you must REALLY like patrick peterson if you would take him #1 overall.
Hilarious!

jk

Pontius Pirate
08-23-2011, 02:50 PM
I have the #7 pick in my draft and I LOVE it. I'm taking Vick. My reasoning:

If I had the 1-4 pick, I think I'd have to take Foster, Peterson, CJ, or Jamaal. Those guys are locks for 1-4 of every projection I see. But at around 7-10, you could pick a second tier RB, or the BEST player in fantasy - Vick.

Most people don't pick a QB until 2nd round at the earliest. If you pick at 1-5, there is no way you are going to get Vick or Aaron Rodgers....you might be lucky to get Brees, Brady, or Rivers.

But the point swing between Vick/Rodgers and the next tier of QB's is almost DOUBLE what the point swing is between Peterson et al and the next tier of RB's that will be available after you pick your stud QB in the first round.

My two cents...

Chris
08-23-2011, 03:09 PM
You really think Jamaal Charles will still put up big numbers with the Chiefs harder schedule this year?

DENVERDUI55
08-23-2011, 03:13 PM
Foster and take Tate late in draft to hand cuff him. He has looked great in preseason and we know that system produces numbers.

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 03:13 PM
I would not want to have top pick. I am not sure about Peterson this year he will be seeing a lot of 8 and 9 man boxes and I don't think his offensive line is as good as it was. I don't like that CJ is still holding out and I don't think Foster can repeat. Right now I would go with Steven Jackson.

In the middle of the 1st I really like Charles and Mcfadden, MJD and Turner.

Steven Jackson + McDaniels = Brb Not Picking Him

Rulon Velvet Jones
08-23-2011, 03:13 PM
Peterson. Puts up great numbers even behind a rough offensive line. McNabb will hopefully keep defenses honest. Loss of Rice hurts, but AP is a special talent.

OBF1
08-23-2011, 03:16 PM
Come on REV, CJ, he has not even spent 5 minutes in camp. He will be so far behind the offense if/when he shows up.

AP or Arian Nation are the top 2 in my book. No reason to think Foster will not have a great year and AP has seen 8 in the box since he arrived in Minnesota, McNabb might help get it down to 7 in the box.

Smiling Assassin27
08-23-2011, 03:24 PM
Come on REV, CJ, he has not even spent 5 minutes in camp. He will be so far behind the offense if/when he shows up.

AP or Arian Nation are the top 2 in my book. No reason to think Foster will not have a great year and AP has seen 8 in the box since he arrived in Minnesota, McNabb might help get it down to 7 in the box.


I concur on CJ. He won't need much time. It's not like he's a rookie, he knows the drill. Plus he's the most freakish of all the RB's, so I'm going with him if Arian ain't available.

vonqkilla
08-23-2011, 03:25 PM
Vick.

DENVERDUI55
08-23-2011, 03:28 PM
Steven Jackson + McDaniels = Brb Not Picking Him

Equals about 12 carries a game. I agree.

FADERPROOF
08-23-2011, 03:45 PM
Peterson

Broncobiv
08-23-2011, 09:37 PM
This is more of an overall fantasy draft strategy response, but with some bearing on the responses so far.

I do NOT draft ANY QB in the first round AT ALL. Why? I assume most people reading this thread understand general fantasy strategies and logic to some degree. So, by drafting a QB in the first round, you absolutely KILL your RB/WR depth. Most (95%?) leagues start 1 QB and 5 WR/RB. By not taking one of the top RB/WR available with your first pick, you really set yourself back overall. Sure, you got one of the best QB's, but for the next 9 or 10 rounds, you'll be chasing RB's and WR's trying to catch up and make up for your crappy starters.

I will gladly give up one of the "stud" 4 or 5 top QB's in order to draft one each of the top 5 RB's and WR's in the first round and then again coming back in the second. I can get a decent QB many rounds later while still fielding a STELLAR RB/WR corps. To me, that is a winning formula for fantasy success.

SonOfLe-loLang
08-23-2011, 09:39 PM
because most leagues you only get 4 points for a passing TD. scoring is usually greared to favor rb's over qb's, plus the difference between the top rb's compared to how deep you can be productive at QB is a wide range

in mine you get six for a passing TD

As for his injury possibility, youre really trusting runningbacks to stay healthy all year long?

vonqkilla
08-23-2011, 09:47 PM
Not sure how you pass a top 5 qb and the #15 rusher combined ine one pick.

serious hops
08-23-2011, 10:19 PM
For me it's Arian Foster this year, no question. Last year's results speak for themselves, and I don't see any reason to doubt he can repeat them. His lack of proven consistency is really the only reason I see to downgrade him, and I've watched the ZBS too many years to consider it a fluke. That's what the scheme does, it generates big results from mediocre talent when run properly-- and right now, Houston's been running it longer with the same group of guys than anyone. They have a mostly young veteran line, molded by a very competent coach, and a back that obviously gets the system.

He has less mileage on his legs than either AD or CJ, and he looks built to take hits pretty well. He has the most stable QB situation, the best overall passing game, and by far the most dangerous WR out wide to take away some attention. And a playcaller who staunchly believes in the one-back system. Foster will get more goal line work than CJ, and he topped both CJ and AP in both receptions and receiving yards last year.

Of course, they're both proven great backs, and in the end I don't think there's any lock or consensus top pick this year. I've been a huge fan of Adrian Peterson since his college days, and you can never go wrong with him. And CJ's clearly a very legit pick as well, but I wouldn't take him higher than third until his contract situation is clarified. While I have to suspect that they'll cave and pay him before the sason starts, the time's already getting close. If they think they're going to sign him on Monday or Tuesday afternoon and give him twenty carries that Sunday, I am a little concerned about his conditioning and the possibility of injury if he basically hasn't been on a football field since around the first of the year. Right now I have the top five backs as Foster - Peterson - Johnson - Charles - Rice.

Shananahan
08-23-2011, 10:36 PM
Vick is being ridiculously overrated this year. There are probably four other QBs I would draft ahead of him.

Per the thread: AP or Foster. I'd probably pick Peterson simply because unless he gets injured, he'll give you top five numbers at the position. I think Foster will have another great year, but picking first overall I'd probably want guaranteed results.

StugotsIII
08-23-2011, 10:52 PM
because most leagues you only get 4 points for a passing TD. scoring is usually greared to favor rb's over qb's, plus the difference between the top rb's compared to how deep you can be productive at QB is a wide range

I've never understood this…

Why do QB's alway seem to get rooked in FF?

Doggcow
08-24-2011, 12:20 AM
I picked other because Michael Vick HAS to be in this debate...

His stats were freakish last year and he missed games.

i4jelway7
08-24-2011, 02:01 AM
Jamaal Charles- (although Mccluster may take some carries, now that he is a fulltime RB)
Charles was ridiculously good last year - all-time good. First and foremost, Charles’ 6.4 yards per carry was one of the best ever in the NFL and easily led the league last year. But in almost every possible situation in 2010, his yards per carry/catch were off the charts. Now, we should point out that it is risky to draft Charles over Johnson and Peterson simply because of Charles’ limited opportunities compared to those two. He had “only” 64 targets (tied for 10<SUP>th</SUP>), which was disappointing because his excellent 10.4 yards per catch (6<SUP>th</SUP> among RBs with over 25 targets) could have gotten him more than 468 yards receiving (9<SUP>th</SUP>). But the thing really separating him from the elite featured backs is the fact that he had only 8 TDs, and 3 of those were receiving, which are hard to predict and expect. The biggest problem is that he got only five carries at the goal line (he scored on four of them, as well as scoring on both his goal-line targets), and 40 RBs had more, including teammate Thomas Jones, who had 15 (scoring on 5 of them). While it sounds like we’re frustrated by his role, we’re actually okay with it. Charles, at this point, demands the ball, and he will get the ball. His relatively low carry total (230) seems like a very sustainable workload for him, one that will maximize his effectiveness and keep him healthy, and there’s a lot to be said for that. As for Peterson and Johnson, Charles is in a better situation this year. The loss of OC Charlie Weiss is a concern, but everything else from 2010 is in place for the Chiefs, and their overall offense should be better with a big upgrade at their #2 WR spot (rookie Jonathan Baldwin). Peterson’s OL in Minnesota is weak

bfoflcommish
08-24-2011, 07:07 AM
I've never understood this…

Why do QB's alway seem to get rooked in FF?

because they touch the ball every play and have the most chances of scoring. they can run, they can pass to rb, wr, or te, etc... they get more passing yards than the best rb runs of day on team and all that fun stuff. if scoring was equal qb's would triple (or more) the score of the best rb's/wr's on the field every game

jhns
08-24-2011, 07:23 AM
I voted Chris Johnson, though Peterson is a close second.

I still have never played ff. I should try it at some point.

Shananahan
08-24-2011, 09:24 AM
I've never understood this…

Why do QB's alway seem to get rooked in FF?
Quarterbacks aren't getting 'rooked', and the reason for some being drafted lower than other elite players isn't the one he gave you and has nothing to do with how much touchdowns are worth. The value of the touchdown doesn't really matter because, it's the same for everybody else in the league.

Elite runningbacks and wide receivers go off the chart early in the draft due to the disparity at their positions and, like bfolcommish said, the depth at which you can succeed with a serviceable QB. Guys like Peterson and CJ, or Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald, are so much better than the rest of the players at their position they end up being valued at the top.

bfoflcommish
08-24-2011, 10:04 AM
Quarterbacks aren't getting 'rooked', and the reason for some being drafted lower than other elite players isn't the one he gave you and has nothing to do with how much touchdowns are worth. The value of the touchdown doesn't really matter because, it's the same for everybody else in the league. Elite runningbacks and wide receivers go off the chart early in the draft due to the disparity at their positions and, like bfolcommish said, the depth at which you can succeed with a serviceable QB. Guys like Peterson and CJ, or Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald, are so much better than the rest of the players at their position they end up being valued at the top.

Shananahan, actually most leagues are qb's throwing 4 points per td, 6 pts for all other players. If you make qb throwing td 6 points then yes by all means it boosts their value much higher on draft board. Vick then does become a top pick because when you factor in his passing tds at 6 points he now will score more than most rb will.

last year Vick had 21 passing td's, at 4pts thats only 84 points, but at 6 points its 126, thats a big difference and makes him more valuable than lots of players RB's included

Shananahan
08-24-2011, 10:56 AM
Shananahan, actually most leagues are qb's throwing 4 points per td, 6 pts for all other players. If you make qb throwing td 6 points then yes by all means it boosts their value much higher on draft board.
You're doing it wrong. I'm in an annual league with friends where passing touchdowns are worth six points like all the rest, and the entire first round and most of the second round is still filled with runningbacks and wide receivers. Manning, Brady, Brees and Rivers have slipped in there once or twice, but overall the value of the elite players at those positions is more than the value of elite quarterbacks.

cartel
08-24-2011, 10:57 AM
Foster is Kube's TD. ZBS, SEC, low round pick, salute vs. bow. Nice to see again.

StugotsIII
08-24-2011, 03:29 PM
because they touch the ball every play and have the most chances of scoring. they can run, they can pass to rb, wr, or te, etc... they get more passing yards than the best rb runs of day on team and all that fun stuff. if scoring was equal qb's would triple (or more) the score of the best rb's/wr's on the field every game


So what?

underrated29
08-24-2011, 03:55 PM
AD -all day long. He is consistent and has a nice schedule, plus mcnabb should do well for him.

Then it goes- foster- I dont trust he will stay healthy all year and we saw the year before a different back with good numbers and steve slaton the year before that.

Then CJ2k- he will play, its going to happen.

Then Rice- I dont understand people who take Charles over Ray Rice. Ray rice will get twice as many touches as charles. He will also see about the same number of passes and he plays on a much much much better team. Oh and they brought in a FB by the name of Vontae leach- who they dumped Mclain for (who is now blocking for charles). And while both teams have a runner to steal goal line carries (ricky will and thomas J) One team is going to score a lot more points and have more opportunity to score them IMO...

Then Charles.





As for the QB argument, have any of you wait and see on a QB guys ever won a championship? Just asking...I have Never won when I waited on a QB, but all but 1 time when I have taken a top 4 QB I have won the championship. Ironically, the one time I lost was on here to Dogcow 2 years ago.





PS- I actually think Steven Jackson has a great year under Mcdaniels. Possibly up to 70 receptions this year and he has averaged 1200 + on the ground. That might not continue but 1k should be doable.

StugotsIII
08-24-2011, 04:49 PM
because they touch the ball every play and have the most chances of scoring. they can run, they can pass to rb, wr, or te, etc... they get more passing yards than the best rb runs of day on team and all that fun stuff. if scoring was equal qb's would triple (or more) the score of the best rb's/wr's on the field every game

Scoring IS equall in the league I run because I refuse to handicap the most important position in all of sports.

Anyone starting a team is going to make sure they are set at QB before WR or RB.

I hate the ridiculous scoring used to de-value QB's.

StugotsIII
08-24-2011, 04:50 PM
Quarterbacks aren't getting 'rooked', and the reason for some being drafted lower than other elite players isn't the one he gave you and has nothing to do with how much touchdowns are worth. The value of the touchdown doesn't really matter because, it's the same for everybody else in the league.

Elite runningbacks and wide receivers go off the chart early in the draft due to the disparity at their positions and, like bfolcommish said, the depth at which you can succeed with a serviceable QB. Guys like Peterson and CJ, or Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald, are so much better than the rest of the players at their position they end up being valued at the top.

Are QB's scored the same way in most leagues?

No...

So yes, they are getting rooked.

serious hops
08-24-2011, 07:15 PM
Are QB's scored the same way in most leagues?

No...

So yes, they are getting rooked.

Well, if you draft one first in every league you play and consistently win championships, perhaps you can re-write FF theory and correct this terrible injustice.

Those poor bastids! LOL

tsiguy96
08-24-2011, 07:18 PM
jamaal charles is such a shaky pick. he is a top 5 RB, but where in the top 5? hes gonna get a lot of TDs vultured by thomas jones, and hes gonna split a 50/50 workload early in the season.

Shananahan
08-24-2011, 07:39 PM
Are QB's scored the same way in most leagues?

No...

So yes, they are getting rooked.
Nobody is getting 'rooked', you're just looking at it the wrong way. I never really understood the four-point passing touchdowns, but in the end it doesn't matter because the QBs who throw for the most touchdowns are still going to be just as valuable whether they're four points or six.

mwill07
08-24-2011, 08:15 PM
QB's are devalued because the QB you can get in the next round is better than the RB you can get in the next round. Consider: the 5th best QB (by my projections) is Phillip Rivers, where the 5th best RB is McCoy. Rivers is better than McCoy. So, looking at the big picture, you are better off drafting Foster (rice, Peterson, whomever you have at #1) and then get Rivers than you are with Vick + McCoy.

The points drop off much faster for RB's than they do for QB's. In a nutshell, that's why you typically go RB first.

ETA: this discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that you will typically start two RB's and one QB. Consider: there are maybe 25 QB's in the NFL who you should assume will take every snap (I don't like to project injuries - I'm talking about QB's that won't loose a job due to coaching decisions), and only maybe 15 or 16 RB's who are every down backs. In a 12 team league, everyone will have 2 servicable QB's, but not every team can have 2 every down backs.

mwill07
08-24-2011, 08:23 PM
I voted Rice. My projections tell me it's Foster, but I just don't trust that he wasn't a flash in the pan. At the same time, I the same case could have been made for Terrell Davis circa 1997.

What I see in Rice is a versatile back, can catch the ball, strong running team, strong defense, not much competition for carries. That's what I like to see for a stud RB. IMO, good RB production comes with good defenses, so that's a factor too. Baltimore's D is better than any other top back.

I think a strong case could be made for Peterson too...strong body of work, no real reason to doubt he won't put up monster numbers.

I'd like to say Chris Johnson, but I don't like what I saw from Tennessee so far, considering the QB position. Plus, the whole hold-out thing. Once (if?) he signs, will he be physically ready? Will he have the playbook down? Will he have the timing down with the OL? I don't like it.

As for Charles, I simply don't see the Chiefs repeating. Lightning won't strike twice for them; they won't be sneaking up on anyone.

StugotsIII
08-24-2011, 08:25 PM
Nobody is getting 'rooked', you're just looking at it the wrong way. I never really understood the four-point passing touchdowns, but in the end it doesn't matter because the QBs who throw for the most touchdowns are still going to be just as valuable whether they're four points or six.

They are getting screwed over…


It's not about QB vs. QB.


It's about QB vs. RB/WR/TE. A TE's TD's and yardage are worth more than a QB's TD's and yardage in turn making TE production more valuable than a QB?


On what planet is a WR/RB/TE more valuable than a QB?

Chris
08-24-2011, 09:47 PM
On what planet is a WR/RB/TE more valuable than a QB?

Earth.

StugotsIII
08-24-2011, 10:42 PM
Earth.

If that were true, there wouldn't be a thousand threads about Tebow and Orton.

KevinJames
08-24-2011, 11:10 PM
Only an idiot would draft Arian Foster over Adrian Peterson.

DENVERDUI55
08-25-2011, 05:19 AM
Only an idiot would draft Arian Foster over Adrian Peterson.

Not really. Let's see more yard potential more catches on a better team with a passing threat. Tubes system produces and any bronco fan knows that. Minny is going to get box stacked against them. All personal opinion and gamble sure ap is better back in real game.

tsiguy96
08-25-2011, 06:12 AM
Not really. Let's see more yard potential more catches on a better team with a passing threat. Tubes system produces and any bronco fan knows that. Minny is going to get box stacked against them. All personal opinion and gamble sure ap is better back in real game.

exactly. in fantasy its not about whos the better RB its about who will produce better numbers in their specific situation.