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View Full Version : The Book on Orton, CH 1: Red Zone Performance


epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 04:46 PM
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

BMarsh615
08-22-2011, 04:51 PM
At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 04:53 PM
At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.

Feel free to add any statistics you want to the discussion. The more the merrier.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:03 PM
Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs:

Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked
3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16---
4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---

mkporter
08-22-2011, 05:07 PM
Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:08 PM
Orton on 3rd and goal and 4th and goal:

3rd and goal-----0/3
4th and goal-----0/1

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:20 PM
Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

Tebow in a Red Zone Specialist role:

4 posessions
3 TD rushing
1 TD passing

4/4 conversion for a 100% conversion rate.

Inkana7
08-22-2011, 05:23 PM
We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:25 PM
We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??

He only threw the ball on 3rd and goal 3 times.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7282/situational;_ylt=AkTUTiK.ryx9e2QIBsHaC5H.uLYF

TheElusiveKyleOrton
08-22-2011, 05:31 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sDDgFanGKGY/TcezyitUoKI/AAAAAAAAcu4/vQBs7pWjfmo/s1600/obsession1.jpg

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:34 PM
I guess the real question is: does anyone have faith that Orton will change his stripes this season?

KO5K
08-22-2011, 05:34 PM
Good God, I knew they must be bad but not that bad.

The funny thing is his red-zone QBR is in the high 80s I think.

TheElusiveKyleOrton
08-22-2011, 05:34 PM
Did you guys know that Tebow is saving himself for Epic? True story.

Liquid Courage
08-22-2011, 05:34 PM
does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:36 PM
does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

I thought about something similar, but I didn't have time.

My frame of reference would have been Orton with the Broncos down 2 or more scores (< -10pts), with a spread over all quarters of the game.

Jay3
08-22-2011, 05:39 PM
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.

Blart
08-22-2011, 05:43 PM
Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

Broncobiv
08-22-2011, 05:48 PM
What's more demoralizing for the team: watching Tebow go in and actually score the TD, or watching Orton flail about hopelessly followed by a Prater FG?

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:49 PM
See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.

There were also several times where the Broncos needed him to come through to either go up points or stay competitive where he failed pretty miserably.

The Broncos had two chances to score late in the season opener against Jacksonville to tie the score and take the game to OT, but Orton couldn't put a drive together.

Against the Colts, the Broncos D was playing well and getting the ball back to the offense, and Orton couldn't put a drive together to put points on the board, including a drive where the Broncos were down 6-0 in the second quarter when Orton threw a pick on 3rd and 5 from the Indy 35 yard line to end a drive, which the Colts took down the field and scored on...making the game 13-0. The Broncos next posession, they finally put together a drive into the red zone, and Orton couldnt convert a 3rd and 1.

There were many of those kinds of moments last season.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 05:53 PM
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 05:54 PM
You didn't include INT's and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack therof.

You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.

Jay3
08-22-2011, 05:58 PM
You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.

I don't think he had a red zone INT last year, so that's good. (About the same number of completions in the red zone as INT's in the red zone).

I don't think there's a way to glean when he was sacked on 3rd down in the red zone. According the splits, he was sacked 16 times on third down last year. So in addition to the low completion rate on 3rd down, 16 times a drive was killed by a 3rd down sack.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 06:05 PM
You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.

Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 06:09 PM
Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.

In the red zone it doesn't appear as though he's very effective at converting important plays.

Blueflame
08-22-2011, 06:13 PM
It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.

DivineLegion
08-22-2011, 06:18 PM
Epic I think you view Football the same way you view politics. This is a very narrow minded, uncomprehensive analysis of Kyle Orton's play. How could you say that this is the "The book on Orton: Red Zone percentage" and only focus on one year. I can skew stats too, but I learned a long time ago if you really want to develop an educated, well rounded perspective you need to look at the WHOLE picture, and not the parts that represent your argument.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 06:19 PM
It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.

That'd be great if I had compiled it for John Fox and not just for my own enjoyment.

The statistics are what they are. Whether you like it or not.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 06:19 PM
I don't think he had a red zone INT last year, so that's good. (About the same number of completions in the red zone as INT's in the red zone).

I don't think there's a way to glean when he was sacked on 3rd down in the red zone. According the splits, he was sacked 16 times on third down last year. So in addition to the low completion rate on 3rd down, 16 times a drive was killed by a 3rd down sack.

Orton is, well, a middle of the road kind of QB. He doesn't throw INT's in the red zone and that's a bigtime positive, but IIRC he doesn't throw a lot of TD's in the red zone. Orton DOES NOT take chances in the red zone, period. So that's a positive and a negative at the same time. A better ground game to punch it in, and Orton's conservative approach, and maybe that's good.

StugotsIII
08-22-2011, 06:19 PM
Inside the 5 Tebow should be the QB each and every time.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 06:21 PM
Epic I think you view Football the same way you view politics. This is a very narrow minded, uncomprehensive analysis of Kyle Orton's play. How could you say that this is the "The book on Orton: Red Zone percentage" and only focus on one year. I can skew stats too, but I learned a long time ago if you really want to develop an educated, well rounded perspective you need to look at the WHOLE picture, and not the parts that represent your argument.

Ha!

The stats speak for themselves.

If you want to provide a statistical counter argument then by all means, do so.

Instead you're just attacking the messenger here because it makes you uncomfortable.

I clearly entitled the thread "CH 1", which should indicate to those who read the post that this is one bit of the book.

Blueflame
08-22-2011, 06:22 PM
That'd be great if I had compiled it for John Fox and not just for my own enjoyment.

The statistics are what they are. Whether you like it or not.

Still seems to me like a lot of work to prove a moot point. Oh, well. Carry on....

Jay3
08-22-2011, 06:22 PM
Orton is, well, a middle of the road kind of QB. He doesn't throw INT's in the red zone and that's a bigtime positive, but IIRC he doesn't throw a lot of TD's in the red zone. Orton DOES NOT take chances in the red zone, period. So that's a positive and a negative at the same time. A better ground game to punch it in, and Orton's conservative approach, and maybe that's good.

So he plays about as well in the red zone as I could. Check.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 06:23 PM
In the red zone it doesn't appear as though he's very effective at converting important plays.

Needs a running game, bud.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 06:27 PM
Still seems to me like a lot of work to prove a moot point. Oh, well. Carry on....

Its not alot of work. This is easy, fun research. Try tracking receptor proteins through scientific papers if you want tedious banalities. ;D

I was interested to know why Fox has managed the QB's the way he has, so the first thing I looked at was the red zone performance because there has been a lingering idea in Broncofandom that Orton is a poor red zone QB. The stats bear out that myth is somewhat representative of reality on this issue.

I did a similar, much more detailed analysis on Cutler here years back.

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 06:29 PM
Needs a running game, bud.

The running game needs him too. Its a two way street.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 06:32 PM
So he plays about as well in the red zone as I could. Check.

Orton would kick your ass.

cmhargrove
08-22-2011, 06:40 PM
As Cito pointed out - that's the reason why we signed a big RB, and drafted a gargantuan RT.

Goal to go situations are where the big boys run it in. We used to be that team, and I hope we become that team again this year. Forget all the QB's - run the damn ball down their throats.

UltimateHoboW/Shotgun
08-22-2011, 06:58 PM
I guess the real question is: does anyone have faith that Orton will change his stripes this season?

Its more like: Orton has brains, but little balls. Tebow is little brains, and all balls. And Quinn has some brains and some balls, but not enough of either. Pick your poison.

Dedhed
08-22-2011, 06:58 PM
Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing.

0 for 12 is demoralizing.

Dedhed
08-22-2011, 06:59 PM
Still seems to me like a lot of work to prove a moot point. Oh, well. Carry on....
What exactly is moot about Orton's ability in the Red Zone?

Binkythefrog
08-22-2011, 06:59 PM
comparison to other qbs in goal to go situations

orton - 14 attempts 6 tds

goal to go - qb rating
1st down - 95.8
2nd down - 127.1
3rd down - 0.0 (3 attempts)

manning 35 attempts 15 tds

1 - 83.9
2 - 126.0
3 - 91.2 9 attempts

brady 33 attempts 17 tds

1 124.3
2 102.8
3 123.8 (9 attempts, but 8 for 9 with 7 tds)

rodgers 37 attempts 13 tds

1 104.2
2 93.1
3 121.9 (12 attempts)

rivers 22 attempts 11 tds

1 113.3
2 79.2
3 129.2 (6 attempts)

looking at these numbers, it looks like if orton was given more opportunities, there is little evidence to suggest he would suck. none of the qb's above threw any picks in a goal to go situation. all of the teams above besides the broncos also had better rushing attacks. brady is clearly pretty awesome, but he is one of the best ever to play.

Dedhed
08-22-2011, 07:00 PM
Its more like: Orton has brains, but little balls. Tebow is little brains, and all balls. And Quinn has some brains and some balls, but not enough of either. Pick your poison.

I'll take the option that has already shown it produces the most points.

Dedhed
08-22-2011, 07:02 PM
comparison to other qbs in goal to go situations

orton - 14 attempts 6 tds

goal to go - qb rating
1st down - 95.8
2nd down - 127.1
3rd down - 0.0 (3 attempts)

manning 35 attempts 15 tds

1 - 83.9
2 - 126.0
3 - 91.2 9 attempts

brady 33 attempts 17 tds

1 124.3
2 102.8
3 123.8 (9 attempts, but 8 for 9 with 7 tds)

rodgers 37 attempts 13 tds

1 104.2
2 93.1
3 121.9 (12 attempts)

rivers 22 attempts 11 tds

1 113.3
2 79.2
3 129.2 (6 attempts)

looking at these numbers, it looks like if orton was given more opportunities, there is little evidence to suggest he would suck. none of the qb's above threw any picks in a goal to go situation. brady is clearly pretty awesome, but he is one of the best ever to play.
Pay attention to 3rd down.

Binkythefrog
08-22-2011, 07:06 PM
Pay attention to 3rd down.

clearly on 3rd down he struggled, but only had 3 passes. not sure if we can draw any big conclusions.

in 2009 on 3rd down

qb rating 92
5 tds in 11 attempts.

zero ints

also, took zero sacks in goal to go situation (probably lots of quick throwaways)

so not the best completion percentage, but he doesn't seem light years away from other quarterbacks. clearly not as good on 3rd down, but definitely not terrible. not so sure if tebow throwing would be better, but would probably make up for it running out of a wildcat formation.

all im trying to say is that orton is not a total failure in goal to go situations and in fact, with a little better play/ and the threat of a better running game could be quite good.

Dedhed
08-22-2011, 07:08 PM
clearly on 3rd down he struggled, but only had 3 passes. not sure if we can draw any big conclusions.


None of them have many attempts. And given his general 3rd down impotence you have to really try to imagine that kind of trend wouldn't continue.

Jay3
08-22-2011, 07:19 PM
Orton would kick your ass.

He wouldn't convert any more third down passes in the red zone that me (zero for both of us).

So to keep up, I've have to ensure zero interceptions in the red zone. To be safe, I would assume the fetal position.

Guaranteed tie.

Jay3
08-22-2011, 07:22 PM
Goal to go situations are where the big boys run it in. We used to be that team, and I hope we become that team again this year. Forget all the QB's - run the damn ball down their throats.

Tebow is bigger than any RB on the roster.

UltimateHoboW/Shotgun
08-22-2011, 07:22 PM
I'll take the option that has already shown it produces the most points.

Yes. But one will only win you games you should win. One will win you games you shouldn't wi. And one will be up and down and all around. Again, pick your poison.

OABB
08-22-2011, 07:22 PM
comparison to other qbs in goal to go situations

orton - 14 attempts 6 tds

goal to go - qb rating
1st down - 95.8
2nd down - 127.1
3rd down - 0.0 (3 attempts)

manning 35 attempts 15 tds

1 - 83.9
2 - 126.0
3 - 91.2 9 attempts

brady 33 attempts 17 tds

1 124.3
2 102.8
3 123.8 (9 attempts, but 8 for 9 with 7 tds)

rodgers 37 attempts 13 tds

1 104.2
2 93.1
3 121.9 (12 attempts)

rivers 22 attempts 11 tds

1 113.3
2 79.2
3 129.2 (6 attempts)

looking at these numbers, it looks like if orton was given more opportunities, there is little evidence to suggest he would suck. none of the qb's above threw any picks in a goal to go situation. all of the teams above besides the broncos also had better rushing attacks. brady is clearly pretty awesome, but he is one of the best ever to play.


good counter argument....however in order for orton to get more opportunities in the redzone, he will have to not be absolut embarrass on third downs on the way.

TheReverend
08-22-2011, 07:25 PM
good counter argument....however in order for orton to get more opportunities in the redzone, he will have to not be absolut embarrass on third downs on the way.

Thread was prophetic.

I should bump it to make all the cock slobberers eat their own feces.

PS. It was "Absolute Embarrassing"

OABB
08-22-2011, 07:29 PM
Thread was prophetic.

I should bump it to make all the cock slobberers eat their own feces.

PS. It was "Absolute Embarrassing"

it was. i remember hating it and you..but you were right.

vonqkilla
08-22-2011, 07:30 PM
Its a new year. I am giving orton a clean slate for the first 2 games which we must win. What if we drop those, and Tebow comes in week 12 to fight off andrew luck...

Back to King Neckbeard, he is playing for his career this year, and is in all out FU mode. His teammates like him a lot, they have his back, and his middle finger is in the air to everyone else. Throw out last year and every year b4 that. New line, new attitude, new team.

These stats have 0 to do with now.

What makes the diff is Tebow will run through the mike to score, orton rolls and throws it away. Thats the difference.

Do you want read/read/ throw away or sack, or

Read/ scramble/read/run

TheReverend
08-22-2011, 07:32 PM
it was. i remember hating it and you..but you were right.

http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/haters-gonna-hate-6.jpg?w=500&h=375

OBF1
08-22-2011, 07:33 PM
Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

Players play the game to win... If Orton is pulled and Tebow puts it in the endzone, not a single player will mind. Demoralizing to certain fans only.

OBF1
08-22-2011, 07:37 PM
Epic I think you view Football the same way you view politics. This is a very narrow minded, uncomprehensive analysis of Kyle Orton's play. How could you say that this is the "The book on Orton: Red Zone percentage" and only focus on one year. I can skew stats too, but I learned a long time ago if you really want to develop an educated, well rounded perspective you need to look at the WHOLE picture, and not the parts that represent your argument.



Here is my simple minded view.

Denver went 4-12 last season

Tebow went 1-2 last season which leaves Orton at 3-10

Did I miss any other important statistic besides wins and losses???

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 07:59 PM
He wouldn't convert any more third down passes in the red zone that me (zero for both of us).

So to keep up, I've have to ensure zero interceptions in the red zone. To be safe, I would assume the fetal position.

Guaranteed tie.

I said Orton would kick your ass, nothing about red zone completions or whatever. But carry on.

Steve Prefontaine
08-22-2011, 08:05 PM
comparison to other qbs in goal to go situations

orton - 14 attempts 6 tds

goal to go - qb rating
1st down - 95.8
2nd down - 127.1
3rd down - 0.0 (3 attempts)

manning 35 attempts 15 tds

1 - 83.9
2 - 126.0
3 - 91.2 9 attempts

brady 33 attempts 17 tds

1 124.3
2 102.8
3 123.8 (9 attempts, but 8 for 9 with 7 tds)

rodgers 37 attempts 13 tds

1 104.2
2 93.1
3 121.9 (12 attempts)

rivers 22 attempts 11 tds

1 113.3
2 79.2
3 129.2 (6 attempts)

looking at these numbers, it looks like if orton was given more opportunities, there is little evidence to suggest he would suck. none of the qb's above threw any picks in a goal to go situation. all of the teams above besides the broncos also had better rushing attacks. brady is clearly pretty awesome, but he is one of the best ever to play.

seriously, you should be banned for mentioning Orton in the company of those other QBs. I'm insulted for them.

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 08:06 PM
clearly on 3rd down he struggled, but only had 3 passes. not sure if we can draw any big conclusions.

in 2009 on 3rd down

qb rating 92
5 tds in 11 attempts.

zero ints

also, took zero sacks in goal to go situation (probably lots of quick throwaways)

so not the best completion percentage, but he doesn't seem light years away from other quarterbacks. clearly not as good on 3rd down, but definitely not terrible. not so sure if tebow throwing would be better, but would probably make up for it running out of a wildcat formation.

all im trying to say is that orton is not a total failure in goal to go situations and in fact, with a little better play/ and the threat of a better running game could be quite good.

I guess better luck this year, eh?

Cito Pelon
08-22-2011, 08:14 PM
Its a new year. I am giving orton a clean slate for the first 2 games which we must win. What if we drop those, and Tebow comes in week 12 to fight off andrew luck...

Back to King Neckbeard, he is playing for his career this year, and is in all out FU mode. His teammates like him a lot, they have his back, and his middle finger is in the air to everyone else. Throw out last year and every year b4 that. New line, new attitude, new team.

These stats have 0 to do with now.

What makes the diff is Tebow will run through the mike to score, orton rolls and throws it away. Thats the difference.

Do you want read/read/ throw away or sack, or

Read/ scramble/read/run

I doubt Tebow will be running through many mikes. Maybe of one sort.
.

Steve Sewell
08-22-2011, 08:20 PM
Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

Tebow is a goal line nightmare for most teams. Inside the 5 is pretty much a guaranteed score if he's in the game (granted they call the right plays).

Jay3
08-22-2011, 08:23 PM
I said Orton would kick your ass, nothing about red zone completions or whatever. But carry on.

Oh. Then your comment was less interesting than I even thought it was.

So . . . I'm fighting Orton, somehow? Do I get a machete?

Jay3
08-22-2011, 08:24 PM
Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

It's not demoralizing if he scores. I agree it's a gamble -- he has to score for it to work. Total limper if the team is denied.

Luckily last year, Tebow scored ON THE FIRST PLAY every time. He didn't have a single unsuccessful goal line snap, much less a whole series of downs denied.

Rub the tummy, get a touchdown.

Jay3
08-22-2011, 08:28 PM
The Florida offense with Tebow was based on three principles:

1. Tebow was first a mascot who demonstrated a knack for being unstoppable in short yardage.

2. They built the whole offense around pretending that 1st and 10 was 1st and goal -- same mentality for moving the sticks as for scoring at the goal line.

3. Tebow was an insane aerobic machine (seriously, I think he's in the Lance Armstrong zone). He could keep it up for an entire game and his performance and throwing did not drop off.

It remains to be seen how much of that is useful for building off of in the NFL. Obviously, it doesn't directly translate. But it would be fun to watch a truly innovative offense.

vonqkilla
08-22-2011, 08:29 PM
I doubt Tebow will be running through many mikes. Maybe of one sort.
.

He ran over many last year, and he stiff ams dl like he does the ladies. They got no shot one on one. Google tebow and raiders, 3 vicious facials like a _________.

Binkythefrog
08-22-2011, 08:29 PM
seriously, you should be banned for mentioning Orton in the company of those other QBs. I'm insulted for them.

i'm sorry i forgot that rule number one on the orange mane is kyle orton blows.

how's this?

orton - 14 attempts 6 tds 0 ints

goal to go - qb rating
1st down - 95.8
2nd down - 127.1
3rd down - 0.0 (3 attempts)

cutler - 27 attempts 9 tds 2 ints

1 93.6
2 42.4
3 50.3

errand
08-22-2011, 08:50 PM
Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs:

Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked
3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16---
4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---

So his numbers decline when opposing teams know he's gotta throw? Sheer genius.....

MplsBronco
08-22-2011, 09:06 PM
does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

This would be interesting. The guy just is not CLUTCH. He's okay and all but when you've got to have a play, he's just like a limp dick.

I think those of us pushing for Tebow see that he showed some CLUTH last year. The thing that convinced me, because I don't give a **** about arm angles and release points, as long as he can get passes off, is the game not once seemed too big for him.

I would agree he "wasn't ready" if he looked scared last year, or had happy feet. The game plans were garbage but Tebow was always lookinig to make a play.

People rag on the run against Oakland. Even if he ran the wrong play, look at what he did with the broken play. It was an awesome display of talent. I was sold right then and there.

MplsBronco
08-22-2011, 09:18 PM
The Florida offense with Tebow was based on three principles:

1. Tebow was first a mascot who demonstrated a knack for being unstoppable in short yardage.

2. They built the whole offense around pretending that 1st and 10 was 1st and goal -- same mentality for moving the sticks as for scoring at the goal line.

3. Tebow was an insane aerobic machine (seriously, I think he's in the Lance Armstrong zone). He could keep it up for an entire game and his performance and throwing did not drop off.

It remains to be seen how much of that is useful for building off of in the NFL. Obviously, it doesn't directly translate. But it would be fun to watch a truly innovative offense.

It sounds like the origins of the league, actually. Still, it would be cool to see a trend that direction with greater skill players.

RhymesayersDU
08-22-2011, 09:21 PM
It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.

Still seems to me like a lot of work to prove a moot point. Oh, well. Carry on....

So... we should just shut the board down then, yes?

Because nothing that is said here on any topic will result in anything tangible.

Or do we just shut down topics that don't fit your agenda?

epicSocialism4tw
08-22-2011, 09:23 PM
This would be interesting. The guy just is not CLUTCH. He's okay and all but when you've got to have a play, he's just like a limp dick.

I think those of us pushing for Tebow see that he showed some CLUTH last year. The thing that convinced me, because I don't give a **** about arm angles and release points, as long as he can get passes off, is the game not once seemed too big for him.

I would agree he "wasn't ready" if he looked scared last year, or had happy feet. The game plans were garbage but Tebow was always lookinig to make a play.

People rag on the run against Oakland. Even if he ran the wrong play, look at what he did with the broken play. It was an awesome display of talent. I was sold right then and there.

Right now, Tebow is all big play wow factor or nothing. He's like the exact opposite of Orton.

DivineLegion
08-23-2011, 04:00 AM
Ha!

The stats speak for themselves.

If you want to provide a statistical counter argument then by all means, do so.

Instead you're just attacking the messenger here because it makes you uncomfortable.

I clearly entitled the thread "CH 1", which should indicate to those who read the post that this is one bit of the book.

Here finish your book.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7282/situational;_ylt=AvDXRScuzlZh4MliCH7kCaX.uLYF?year =career

Click on situation stats, and don't forget to look at the mans entire body of work.

Kyle Ortons career passer rating in the redzone

1st down: 85.4
2nd down: 81.9
3rd down: 88.9
4th down: 39.2


Whole picture. :sunshine:

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 04:07 AM
Here finish your book.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7282/situational;_ylt=AvDXRScuzlZh4MliCH7kCaX.uLYF?year =career

Click on situation stats, and don't forget to look at the mans entire body of work.

Kyle Ortons career passer rating in the redzone

1st down: 85.4
2nd down: 81.9
3rd down: 88.9
4th down: 39.2


Whole picture.

Thats with goal to go, thats not "red zone". You'll need to do quite a bit of your own research to come up with the data you want. The red zone is inside the 20. You can get first downs inside the 20.

That also includes his years with Chicago, which I think that most Broncos fans would agree is somewhat irrelevant considering his poor red zone performance with Denver last season.

DivineLegion
08-23-2011, 04:16 AM
Thats with goal to go, thats not "red zone". You'll need to do quite a bit of your own research to come up with the data you want. The red zone is inside the 20. You can get first downs inside the 20.

That also includes his years with Chicago, which I think that most Broncos fans would agree is somewhat irrelevant considering his poor red zone performance with Denver last season.

Right the Broncos offense last season that was so predictable you could pull any madden player off the street to formulate a defensive scheme to shut it down. We didn't have a balanced offense last season, on third and 2-5 you could almost guarantee that we were going to pass the football. Anyone who knows anything about football knows that the key to having a successful offense is balance. Couple that with the fact that we had two rookies staring on the line, an injured left tackle, and our pass protection was terrible; yea, our numbers last season were terrible. You can't make a illegitimate argument around last years numbers because the overall team performance was awful. This is the way I see it. The greatest QB in the history of football says the guy isn't ready (screw the conspiracy theories; SoCal), so why shouldn't we believe the kid isn't ready? I think Tim is great, you can look up my previous posts about Tim, I was very excited. Reality set in when he wasn't bringing it in camp, and I accepted the truth. So should everyone of this board. The Broncos coaching staff wants to win, and so should the fans.

s0phr0syne
08-23-2011, 04:59 AM
Which stage of truth? I hear there're 3...

Rock Chalk
08-23-2011, 07:13 AM
Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs:

Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked
3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16---
4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---

Whats the average distance to go on 3rd down from last year? The 16 sacks tells me that odds are good it was 3rd and long a great deal of the time.

BroncoMan4ever
08-23-2011, 08:14 AM
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

as much as i don't mind the statistical proof that Orton was terrible in the red zone(which he was) i can't help but think those numbers are a little scewed due to the complete lack of a running game. how many times did we have goal line situations where our running game was stuffed for loss or no gain and Orton was forced to throw. i know he wasn't successful, but when defenses see that you can't run on them it makes stopping the pass a hell of a lot easier.

i want to see what Orton can do with the assistance of a running game that has a presence while inside the red zone.

jhns
08-23-2011, 08:18 AM
as much as i don't mind the statistical proof that Orton was terrible in the red zone(which he was) i can't help but think those numbers are a little scewed due to the complete lack of a running game. how many times did we have goal line situations where our running game was stuffed for loss or no gain and Orton was forced to throw. i know he wasn't successful, but when defenses see that you can't run on them it makes stopping the pass a hell of a lot easier.

i want to see what Orton can do with the assistance of a running game that has a presence while inside the red zone.

It works both ways. You wont have an easy time running if there isn't the threat of passing.

WolfpackGuy
08-23-2011, 08:23 AM
It works both ways. You wont have an easy time running if there isn't the threat of passing.

Or if teams don't have to worry about accounting for the QB moving around.

DenverBrit
08-23-2011, 08:25 AM
Denver didn't have red zone problems until Orton became QB?

Quoydogs
08-23-2011, 09:33 AM
Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

While this is true, there lies the problem. Orton never hits pay dirt and is why we are in this predicament in the first place. So what is worse ? No TD's or Getting TD with another QB ?

TheElusiveKyleOrton
08-23-2011, 09:35 AM
Denver didn't have red zone problems until Orton became QB?

That's right. We were touchdown after touchdown in the red zone and short yardage until Cutler left and Orton came in.

Er... wait a minute...

OABB
08-23-2011, 09:37 AM
That's right. We were touchdown after touchdown in the red zone and short yardage until Cutler left and Orton came in.

Er... wait a minute...

lol. ****ler sucks too. send in the teebs!

Dr. Broncenstein
08-23-2011, 09:37 AM
Denver didn't have red zone problems until Orton became QB?

Those problems went away as soon as McDaniels changed his mind on the ridiculous idea of playing Tebow in the red zone.

ColoradoDarin
08-23-2011, 09:37 AM
Denver didn't have red zone problems until Orton became QB?

No, we had them with Cutler too IIRC.

DivineLegion
08-23-2011, 10:12 AM
I'm not going to look it up right now because I'm in the middle of doing school work but I could almost guarantee that the top 10 redzone percentage teams in the league are good at running the ball, or have an elite QB.

randomtask
08-23-2011, 10:16 AM
I'm not going to look it up right now because I'm in the middle of doing school work but I could almost guarantee that the top 10 redzone percentage teams in the league are good at running the ball, or have an elite QB.

Yes, you do generally have good offensive numbers when you have superior talent on offense...

OABB
08-23-2011, 10:19 AM
Yes, you do generally have good offensive numbers when you have superior talent on offense...

lol.

BroncoMan4ever
08-23-2011, 10:25 AM
It works both ways. You wont have an easy time running if there isn't the threat of passing.

exactly. a team can get away with being nothing but an aeriel team between the 20s but once ou get into the red zone, you need the threat of a functional running game even if you have no desire to run the ball.

if Denver had a viable running game last season it would have opened up play action plays that even though Orton is not a great runner he is still pretty damn effective in play action.

in the 20s good teams can beat the opposition on the ground and through the air. Denver has lacked the rushing component since almost all the way back to the Portis days.

DivineLegion
08-23-2011, 11:01 AM
Yes, you do generally have good offensive numbers when you have superior talent on offense...

I know, a bit of a blanket statement but the problems for this team in the redzone go back to small linemen (not generally utilized by the traditional running teams in the league), and a lack of commitment to running the ball in the redzone (see Kubiak/McDaniels). I feel like the system in place now, coupled with the personnel decisions made by the new regime we are going to see a lot of that change. Orlando Franklin is exactly the kind of player this team has needed for years. We can comfortably run the ball at the strongside of our line for the first time in 10 years. Kuper and Franklin on the right side of our offensive line is an automatic upgrade, and should boost our status as a power running team in the league. With all of that considered, factor in the fact that we just switched back to the zone blocking scheme, and you have football team that can grind out those tough yards. People are going to have to respect the play action on short yardage, and thats going to open up the intermediate routes that get you first downs.

Now you have to factor in the big play potential of Brandon Lloyd. The seam route that Orton hit against Buffalo was a prime example of all of the new factors that have come into play for the Broncos culminating into a big play. It's an offensive balance we haven't achieved since 05'.

vonqkilla
08-23-2011, 11:10 AM
The girl in broncoman4ever's avatars has nice implants but something seems off.

theAPAOps5
08-23-2011, 11:42 AM
When does chapter 2 come out?

bfoflcommish
08-23-2011, 11:43 AM
The girl in broncoman4ever's avatars has nice implants but something seems off.

yeah her shirt and pants.....badumdum

or do you mean the pointy elbows?

Dedhed
08-23-2011, 12:14 PM
Yes. But one will only win you games you should win. One will win you games you shouldn't wi. And one will be up and down and all around. Again, pick your poison.

Orton's shown he can ONLY win games that he should win. 3 last year. Probably 4-5 this year.

Tebow's never led a team to fewer than 23 points in a start. That doesn't really support your up and down take on his performance.

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 12:17 PM
Right the Broncos offense last season that was so predictable you could pull any madden player off the street to formulate a defensive scheme to shut it down. We didn't have a balanced offense last season, on third and 2-5 you could almost guarantee that we were going to pass the football. Anyone who knows anything about football knows that the key to having a successful offense is balance. Couple that with the fact that we had two rookies staring on the line, an injured left tackle, and our pass protection was terrible; yea, our numbers last season were terrible. You can't make a illegitimate argument around last years numbers because the overall team performance was awful. This is the way I see it. The greatest QB in the history of football says the guy isn't ready (screw the conspiracy theories; SoCal), so why shouldn't we believe the kid isn't ready? I think Tim is great, you can look up my previous posts about Tim, I was very excited. Reality set in when he wasn't bringing it in camp, and I accepted the truth. So should everyone of this board. The Broncos coaching staff wants to win, and so should the fans.


I didnt look at Tebows numbers other than his red zone conversions in a specialist role.

But as for Orton, it was clear that his inability to produce inside the red zone was a major contributor to the offenses inability to score points.

DivineLegion
08-23-2011, 12:30 PM
I didnt look at Tebows numbers other than his red zone conversions in a specialist role.

But as for Orton, it was clear that his inability to produce inside the red zone was a major contributor to the offenses inability to score points.

I'm not going to discount Tebow in the redzone, the kid is probably one of the most lethal redzone weapons in the league. I just feel like a lot of our redzone woes are going to subside with the implementation of a legitimate running game. McGahees touchdown against the Bills is a perfect example of the formula that is going to increase our redzone production.

TailgateNut
08-23-2011, 12:32 PM
I'm not going to discount Tebow in the redzone, the kid is probably one of the most lethal redzone weapons in the league. I just feel like a lot of our redzone woes are going to subside with the implementation of a legitimate running game. McGahees touchdown against the Bills is a perfect example of the formula that is going to increase our redzone production.

Then convert the kid to RB or TE if he can catch a ball. He sure the **** isn't NFL QB mtl at this point in his career.

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 12:41 PM
Then convert the kid to RB or TE if he can catch a ball. He sure the **** isn't NFL QB mtl at this point in his career.

Do you really need to vent your bigoted hate for Tebow in a thread about Orton?

Dedhed
08-23-2011, 12:43 PM
Then convert the kid to RB or TE if he can catch a ball. He sure the **** isn't NFL QB mtl at this point in his career.

You still haven't answered why he was able to score more points than Orton as a starter.

broncocalijohn
08-23-2011, 12:45 PM
Did you guys know that Tebow is saving himself for Epic? True story.

But you cannot disregard the stats. Orton wouldnt be as bad with a running game. Inside the 20, Tebow should be considered almost every time if Orton shows failure in that part. It is a difference of 4 points and close games can be the difference of a win and loss. While I think Orton is the better QB right now, he better show he is the better QB inside the 20 within the first 2 games.

The girl in broncoman4ever's avatars has nice implants but something seems off.

Yeah, her hand is in the way.

Dr. Broncenstein
08-23-2011, 12:46 PM
You still haven't answered why he was able to score more points than Orton as a starter.

Those games didn't count because they were meaningless games. As if the record to that point had any meaning. And completely ignore Orton's shiatting of the the bed @ KC when he couldn't complete a single pass on eight attempts in the fourth quarter.... or the followup hillarity that ensued @ Arizona.

Garcia Bronco
08-23-2011, 12:46 PM
This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

The entire team struggles in the red zone because we can't run the ball in shortage yardage situations. this already looks improved this season.

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 12:49 PM
The entire team struggles in the red zone because we can't run the ball in shortage yardage situations. this already looks improved this season.

Orton is not a good red zone passer. He isnt confident enough in his arm.

At the Cowboys game, he short-armed a fade into the corner that Lloyd had to adjust his route to to make a play on. It was a typical Orton red zone play.

For whatever reason, he just isnt effective down there.

Garcia Bronco
08-23-2011, 12:51 PM
Orton is not a good red zone passer. He isnt confident enough in his arm.

At the Cowboys game, he short-armed a fade into the corner that Lloyd had to adjust his route to to make a play on. It was a typical Orton red zone play.

For whatever reason, he just isnt effective down there.

I think on that particular play Lloyd jumped to soon. It was certainly a catchable ball...especially for Lloyd. DB made a good play too.

DenverBrit
08-23-2011, 01:02 PM
The entire team struggles in the red zone because we can't run the ball in shortage yardage situations. this already looks improved this season.

It's been that way for several seasons, but when you don't like the QB, only his stats count.

A grinding running game will take care of a lot of the problems.

Rock Chalk
08-23-2011, 02:17 PM
Or if teams don't have to worry about accounting for the QB moving around.

Yeah, because you know, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are fleet footed.

Or, rather more on Orton's level who were successful with good teams around them, Trent Green and Rich Gannon. Statues in the pocket and, given a decent defense and running game had a lot of success.

Scrambling QBs are not a necessity but the threat of a run game absolutely is unless you have a super super super star QB who can read defenses and throw every ball perfectly (which very very few QBs can do)

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 02:24 PM
Yeah, because you know, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are fleet footed.

Or, rather more on Orton's level who were successful with good teams around them, Trent Green and Rich Gannon. Statues in the pocket and, given a decent defense and running game had a lot of success.

Scrambling QBs are not a necessity but the threat of a run game absolutely is unless you have a super super super star QB who can read defenses and throw every ball perfectly (which very very few QBs can do)

I'm sorry...

but did you just call Rich Gannon a statue?

Ha!

Gannon kinda got drafted to play defensive back, dude.

Dr. Broncenstein
08-23-2011, 02:27 PM
Rich Gannon was athletic as hell. And that guy had our number. Possibly the greatest thing Marty Schottenheimer ever did was bench Gannon for the the 97 divisional game in favor of Grbackup.

Rock Chalk
08-23-2011, 02:29 PM
Rich Gannon was athletic as hell. And that guy had our number. Possibly the greatest thing Marty Schottenheimer ever did was bench Gannon for the the 97 divisional game in favor of Grbackup.

Not by the time he was in Oakland.

Point is, there are a LOT of QBs that haven't been particularly athletic b ut have had great scucess but there are very FEW QBs that have had success with little run support.

TheReverend
08-23-2011, 02:34 PM
Not by the time he was in Oakland.

Point is, there are a LOT of QBs that haven't been particularly athletic b ut have had great scucess but there are very FEW QBs that have had success with little run support.

...bro, in 2000 in Oakland Gannon rushed for over 500 yards.

Just stop. This is retarded.

Pete51
08-23-2011, 02:36 PM
I was just wondering where you found such stats and some things about your stats.
we (he) were in the red zone only 53 times in 13 games thats 4 times a game?!! and 30/70 that is just plane bad. and out of the 30 complete NONE were for a first down??!! and none were INT'S?? but 12 were for TD's well, how many runing TD's in this 53 times? KO had a total of 20 TD's that means 8 TDs were from long range that sounds good! 12 of his 20 td were inside the 20. that is 60% Another thing we were in the red zone 53 times and he only threw 70 times. that is not a very good rate of pass attempts, thats just over ONE PER RED ZONE TRIP. thats 159 downs or more 70 P/A and 89 run tries. 12 were tds thats about 15% for TD and out of 30 passes 12 were for TD thats like 40% of his passes completions went for td?? you say 12 out of 53 red zone ended in a TD pass and NONE on int's.
So to total all this info up he get there 53 times and only threw 70 times completed 30 and 12 for TD's and had no INTS..... I CAN TELL YOU ARE A ORTON FAN, THANKS FOR THE GOOD INFO
thats 89 run tries that could not make it into the end zone. so why are you picking on the passing game

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 05:16 PM
I was just wondering where you found such stats and some things about your stats.
we (he) were in the red zone only 53 times in 13 games thats 4 times a game?!! and 30/70 that is just plane bad. and out of the 30 complete NONE were for a first down??!! and none were INT'S?? but 12 were for TD's well, how many runing TD's in this 53 times? KO had a total of 20 TD's that means 8 TDs were from long range that sounds good! 12 of his 20 td were inside the 20. that is 60% Another thing we were in the red zone 53 times and he only threw 70 times. that is not a very good rate of pass attempts, thats just over ONE PER RED ZONE TRIP. thats 159 downs or more 70 P/A and 89 run tries. 12 were tds thats about 15% for TD and out of 30 passes 12 were for TD thats like 40% of his passes completions went for td?? you say 12 out of 53 red zone ended in a TD pass and NONE on int's.
So to total all this info up he get there 53 times and only threw 70 times completed 30 and 12 for TD's and had no INTS..... I CAN TELL YOU ARE A ORTON FAN, THANKS FOR THE GOOD INFO
thats 89 run tries that could not make it into the end zone. so why are you picking on the passing game

The info was gathered from the game report play-by-play sections on ESPN.com.

The thing that sticks out to me is the extremely poor conversion rate on 3rd or 4th down. Orton is afraid of the clutch play and prefers to pass the buck off to the kicker.

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 05:17 PM
I think on that particular play Lloyd jumped to soon. It was certainly a catchable ball...especially for Lloyd. DB made a good play too.

The ball was clearly underthrown. The fade is thrown to the back corner pylon and is supposed to be completely out of the reach of the defender. Orton accomplished neither of those things with his throw.

Inkana7
08-23-2011, 05:31 PM
ITT llama bases his opinions off of one throw in preseason.

epicSocialism4tw
08-23-2011, 05:33 PM
ITT llama bases his opinions off of one throw in preseason.

Yeah, that and a year's worth of stats.